Russia, China, Iran

[A Beautiful Truth]

Describe a world, based on your knowledge of military history, where Russia, China, and Iran form an axis. What would the future look like based on our knowledge of the past?

I put this here as opposed to civics or politics because "those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" and since you guys are geeky enough to be posting here, you know the past well enough with this relevant military connection and are therefore probably more qualified than those just interested in politics.

Many thanks for your insights...

~Charleen

P.S. The "geeky" comment was for good cheer...

[nomad]

They go all hedonist and fall back apart? At least, that's what happened to the Mongol Empire.

Not based on history, I expect India to get really worried. Traditionally (well, 'traditionally' meaning the last 50 years or so) Russia and India were aligned, and China was worried. China and Russia really do not get along well, I do not think there's much chance of a Russia-China-Iran alliance.

[themuzicman]

Yeah, I think the different foundational religious and political philosophies would ultimately undermine any alliance,

Russia and China have never really been able to get along, in spite of some efforts on that front.

I think the Russians and the Chinese are secretly as worried about Iran as we are, but they're playing it closer to the vest because they get oil resources from them.

It would depend, too, on what kind of alliance they formed. China has the manpower and resources to become an economic giant, but they need oil. Russia and Iran have the oil, but I doubt they'd want to get tied to China as it grew economically, and they didn't.

From a military standpoint, only Russia has the ability to really reach beyond its shores. Iran could use terrorism, but that's a risky game to play, especially against the technology of the US and Israel.

Ultimately, they could control much of Asia and parts of the middle east, if they went on a military conquest, but I doubt it would stand as the western world is dependent on that oil, too, and the west has the technology to defeat the three of them.

Michael

[Ratnat]

Yeah, I think the different foundational religious and political philosophies would ultimately undermine any alliance,

Russia and China have never really been able to get along, in spite of some efforts on that front.

I think the Russians and the Chinese are secretly as worried about Iran as we are, but they're playing it closer to the vest because they get oil resources from them.

It would depend, too, on what kind of alliance they formed. China has the manpower and resources to become an economic giant, but they need oil. Russia and Iran have the oil, but I doubt they'd want to get tied to China as it grew economically, and they didn't.

From a military standpoint, only Russia has the ability to really reach beyond its shores. Iran could use terrorism, but that's a risky game to play, especially against the technology of the US and Israel.

Ultimately, they could control much of Asia and parts of the middle east, if they went on a military conquest, but I doubt it would stand as the western world is dependent on that oil, too, and the west has the technology to defeat the three of them.

Michael

I disagree with many points in this post.

First one is the philosophical point. I think their philosophies are quite compatible at the core and historically have formed an axis against the historical west when need be. Although there have been gaps over the centuries when they were not allies--Late Soviet era for example, that was a land issue. All three are dealing with the religious extremism issue at the moment(Islamic in particular)

I also disagree the west would beat them militarily. We share much the same technologies. Any confrontation would destroy the world as a whole.

I also think most of Central and South America would be part of any such axis therefore military action on a global scale is impractical for all involved.

Economically, I think the book "The World is Flat" is prophetic and the whole fight for superpower status thing will be mute by the end of this century.

Of course, if we get another administration like this one in power trying out their magical experiments globally...anything can happen.:ahem:

[nomad]

Hmm??? When have China and Russia ever been aligned? I don't know of many such times, so I'm actually curious. I don't know as much about the far east as I would like though. I know there was a brief period when they were aligned after 49, but it didn't last long. Even though they were both communist, they had some fundamental disagreements about what that meant; the differences were political as well as cultural.

[Ratnat]

Hmm??? When have China and Russia ever been aligned? I don't know of many such times, so I'm actually curious. I don't know as much about the far east as I would like though. I know there was a brief period when they were aligned after 49, but it didn't last long. Even though they were both communist, they had some fundamental disagreements about what that meant; the differences were political as well as cultural.


The History of what is called "The Silk Road" should give you a good overview of the trade relations between the parties.

[nomad]

Trade I believe, but that doesn't imply any alignment in my mind. I wouldn't see their relationship as any more aligned than China with, say, the US, one of its largest trading partners. China, in particular, has always been insular with regard to foreign policy. Russia less so, but was far more interested in Europe than the Far East.

I did find this http://72.14.253.104/search?q=cache:6GwE1yTbIcwJ:www.defac.ac.uk/colleges/csrc/document-listings/russian/06(46)VPEnglish.pdf+russian+chinese+relations+history&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us which shows some of the ups and downs China and Russia have had in the last 200 years which was interesting. But it doesn't go back farther than that; I'm still looking for something.

[Ratnat]

Trade I believe, but that doesn't imply any alignment in my mind. I wouldn't see their relationship as any more aligned than China with, say, the US, one of its largest trading partners. China, in particular, has always been insular with regard to foreign policy. Russia less so, but was far more interested in Europe than the Far East.

I did find this http://72.14.253.104/search?q=cache:6GwE1yTbIcwJ:www.defac.ac.uk/colleges/csrc/document-listings/russian/06(46)VPEnglish.pdf+russian+chinese+relations+history&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us which shows some of the ups and downs China and Russia have had in the last 200 years which was interesting. But it doesn't go back farther than that; I'm still looking for something.

It goes well beyond just trade. The cultural exchanges, peace marriages, etc...go back thousands of years. Mongolian Empire History may be another topic that will interest you.

[nomad]

I've read some Mongolian history (the mongols by david morgan and the jack weatherford book), not too much. I will have to read some more. Any suggestions?

based on what I'd read, I got the impression that the different mongol factions didn't get along all that well. They cooperated ok, and kept trade up and running (in fact this was one of their benefits), but never were allied, and sometimes different factions actively fought each other. The "Mongol Empire" as a central entity really didn't last that long (well then again, it lasted as long as the United States has so far, I guess).

It's about the closest to an alliance I would see though.

[Ratnat]

I've read some Mongolian history (the mongols by david morgan and the jack weatherford book), not too much. I will have to read some more. Any suggestions?

based on what I'd read, I got the impression that the different mongol factions didn't get along all that well. They cooperated ok, and kept trade up and running (in fact this was one of their benefits), but never were allied, and sometimes different factions actively fought each other. The "Mongol Empire" as a central entity really didn't last that long (well then again, it lasted as long as the United States has so far, I guess).

It's about the closest to an alliance I would see though.

The point is that many people in China, Iran and Russia are related biologically and culturally.

Here is a good source and bibliography. It outlines the current scholarship on the issue.
http://www.silk-road.com/newsletter/volumeonenumberone/age.html

[nomad]

thanks, I'll take a look

[Lazarus]

I think an interesting question is not whether an alliance between China, Russia, and Iran would fall apart ( I certainly don't think it could last ) but what such an alliance would force countries on the periphery of the alliance to do. Japan and India would become agressive nuclear powers, Saudia Arabia would seek nuclear power, and Europe would build its defenses to a peak far beyond what it was during the cold war. I'm not really sure what the North American continent would do, though my first impulse is to think it would seek to form a counter alliance with the above mentioned countries. The real interesting question is what would happen once the Russian, Chinese, and Iranian alliance fell apart. The world would then be filled with heavily armed nations whose interests would not necessarily mesh with each other. It would be a very dangerous world to live in.

[nomad]

sadly enough, those countries are already on this list:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_Capabilities
and this one:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/mil_arm_for_per-military-armed-forces-personnel

India is #4, Japan is #20, Saudi Arabia is #25.

I honestly don't think too much would happen. However, the risk is that America has made several security guarantees - Taiwan, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Iraq, and elsewhere.

There are already counterweights around the world, and I expect that any rumors of alliance are only going to be economic. China is the wild card IMHO - they are in a high growth state, without the long term resources to maintain it. But they have India on the southwest and surprising enough Vietnam (who they've had their own disagreements and border disputes with) on the south, along with Thailand who has a sizeable military. And if they mess with Taiwan or Japan, they invoke the wrath of the US.

Actually, this presents an interesting picture... China and Russia honestly aren't going to look towards Japan - what would they gain? They are looking west. Iraq is really starting to make sense now. The natural thing to happen would be to support an Iranian-backed incursion into Iraq or Kuwait. We haven't had much success in containing warfare in the middle east until now, but this would give the Russian/Chinese alliance control of more oil (assuming they can get along themselves; not a problem I don't think, the militaries are mismatched, but more important China has the money and needs the oil, Russia has the oil expertise and needs the money, Iran has oil and needs money, their interests align somewhat).

Of course, now, if they try it they will run straight into the american military. This isn't stopping Turkey though, and once Turkey enters and we don't stop them (our own ally!) then you will see Iran come up with a similar casus belli and follow suit.

[Tladatsi]

In the past, the three have never been aligned. China and Russia were for a while as well as Iran / Persia with Russia but never the three.

However, the current conditions favor such an alignment. The principle of "The enemy of my enemy is my friend" could indeed bring these three together. All three are pissed off at the US for various, somewhat related, reasons. Only the other hand, both Russia and China have restive Muslim (Sunni) minorities and are very secular states. Iran's exportation of its brand Islamic fundamentalism would make both nations very leery of Iran. However, their mutual distrust and fear of the US could bring them together.



Describe a world, based on your knowledge of military history, where Russia, China, and Iran form an axis. What would the future look like based on our knowledge of the past?

I put this here as opposed to civics or politics because "those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" and since you guys are geeky enough to be posting here, you know the past well enough with this relevant military connection and are therefore probably more qualified than those just interested in politics.

Many thanks for your insights...

~Charleen

P.S. The "geeky" comment was for good cheer...

[Paintbucket]

Such an alliance would put America in a tough spot. Iran is our new big enemy, Russia is what's left of our old big enemy, and China controls our economy. As previously mentioned, it would take a little bit of time before any invasion of America was launched because the Russians are the only ones who could, and their military isn't what it used to be. China would have problems invading Taiwan, much less the US; and Iran has their own little backyard of problems. There would be some underlying problem in this alliance, but they could work it out. It would not be what we want, but as long as we do nothing stupid, we should be okay.