Retail Sales Up!

[seanD]

Let us celebrate! Retail sales have jumped in August, the most in 5 months!

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/political-economy/2010/09/retail_sales_jump_the_most_in.html

But of course July and August are the back-to-school months and are always the hottest in retail sales this time of year. And because of this, the dupes have jumped back into the market...

http://money.cnn.com/2010/09/14/markets/markets_newyork/


As expected, however, as in any deflationary depression, housing sales continue to slump...

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-home-sales-20100915,0,421816.story

Auto sales continue to slump...

http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/autos/dogged-by-an-ailing-economy-august-auto-sales-slump/19617141/

The dollar continues to sink...

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=11633824

As gold is rising...

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2010/09/14/precious-gold-hits-record-investors-scramble-safety/


My prediction is that come November, retail sales will once again slump for October (possibly even September, but definitely October). The holiday sales will be much more dismal than expected. Then by the start of next year, that's when the economy will really become unraveled, even the sheeple will start seeing the signs of the depression, and panic begins to set in.

[NeilUnreal]

The only point I really disagree with is that I think holiday sales and entertainment spending may be up a little this year. Not because people have much money or confidence, but as a temporary break from frugality. Still, it will be small-ticket and practical items. Look for people to give as gifts items that would normally have purchased as part of general household maintenance, practical clothing , etc.

In other words, kind of like Christmas in the old days, when you got new work shoes instead of a new car.

And if things should continue to be bad or get worse, how we respond -- with depression and panic or with resolve -- will be a test of our mettle as Americans.

-Neil

[Cow Poke]

.....

My prediction is that come November, retail sales will once again slump for October (possibly even September, but definitely October). The holiday sales will be much more dismal than expected. Then by the start of next year, that's when the economy will really become unraveled, even the sheeple will start seeing the signs of the depression, and panic begins to set in.

...and never was heard
a discouraging word... :whistle:

I still think a lot of it is the result of uncertainty in our government - will Cap and Trade pass - will Obamacare be reversed - if Obamacare is NOT reversed, what impact will it have on the economy, etc....

[seanD]

Of course things could always happen that are unexpected. Like the euro could sink due to the EU once again unraveling, particularly with heated demonstrations in Greece over their austerity measures, or an unexpected default of one of the "PIGS" nations. Or we could also go to war before then, which would change things, albeit most likely for the worst, not the better.

[seanD]

...and never was heard
a discouraging word... :whistle:

I still think a lot of it is the result of uncertainty in our government - will Cap and Trade pass - will Obamacare be reversed - if Obamacare is NOT reversed, what impact will it have on the economy, etc....

I think you're giving Americans and their level of perception way too much credit here. I seriously doubt most Americans even know what cap n trade is, much less how it works and what effect it would have on the economy. Trust me on this. Ask about a dozen people, at your work, on the street, or even some of your acquaintances what it is and how it works. Obamacare might be a factor, but this won't go into effect until 2014. I doubt most Americans, in a society that is insanely unfrugal in its consumer spending, are all of a sudden frugal about something that is 4 years away. Nah, most Americans are not spending because the ponzi credit schemes have ceased, banks are hording their cash and not lending, and most Americans are in too deep of debt and/or don't have the money to spend.

Of course I expect the rationales and denial to continue, because a dollar collapse is not an option to most Americans.

[Cow Poke]

I think you're giving Americans and their level of perception way too much credit here. I seriously doubt most Americans even know what cap n trade is, much less how it works and what effect it would have on the economy. Trust me on this. Ask about a dozen people, at your work, on the street, or even some of your acquaintances what it is and how it works. Obamacare might be a factor, but this won't go into effect until 2014. I doubt most Americans, in a society that is insanely unfrugal in its consumer spending, are all of a sudden frugal about something that is 4 years away. Nah, most Americans are not spending because the ponzi credit schemes have ceased, banks are hording their cash and not lending, and most Americans are in too deep of debt and/or don't have the money to spend.

Of course I expect the rationales and denial to continue, because a dollar collapse is not an option to most Americans.

I'm in the energy business - EVERYBODY in my office knows what Cap and Trade is and how it is hampering our business. And MANY small businesses, particularly, are holding off on business decisions to see what will happen.

[seanD]

I'm in the energy business - EVERYBODY in my office knows what Cap and Trade is and how it is hampering our business. And MANY small businesses, particularly, are holding off on business decisions to see what will happen.

Well, being that you're in the energy business I would expect it. I wouldn't expect such knowledge of your typical American, and this is where it's more important, being that the current American economy is primarily driven by illusions -- consumer spending and debt. No doubt Obama's budget deficit has added to the weight of the collapse and the nation's anxiety, making the affects more apparent quicker, but the dollar deflation is a result of a problem that is much more underlining and that has been occurring for many decades prior, long before Obama introduced cap n trade or Obamacare.

[Cow Poke]

Well, being that you're in the energy business I would expect it. I wouldn't expect such knowledge of your typical American, and this is where it's more important, being that the current American economy is primarily driven by illusions -- consumer spending and debt. No doubt Obama's budget deficit has added to the weight of the collapse and the nation's anxiety, making the affects more apparent quicker, but the dollar deflation is a result of a problem that is much more underlining and that has been occurring for many decades prior, long before Obama introduced cap n trade or Obamacare.

Just for grins, watch this video on Cap and Trade (http://www.storyofstuff.com/capandtrade/).

While I don't agree with many of the comments made, it's "another perspective".
Cap and Trade, in my opinion, will do NOTHING for the environment, will make SOME people filthy rich, and will cost most people more money. Its regulatory system is a nightmare, and it's nothing but a big ponzi scheme.

You DO realize that Cap and Trade was not "introduced" by Obama, right?

[seanD]

Just for grins, watch this video on Cap and Trade (http://www.storyofstuff.com/capandtrade/).

While I don't agree with many of the comments made, it's "another perspective".
Cap and Trade, in my opinion, will do NOTHING for the environment, will make SOME people filthy rich, and will cost most people more money. Its regulatory system is a nightmare, and it's nothing but a big ponzi scheme.

You DO realize that Cap and Trade was not "introduced" by Obama, right?

CP, I'm not defending cap n trade, so I'm not sure why you're giving me the definition. I'm aware what it is and how it works and that it was designed by corporate criminals such as Enron and Goldman Sachs and is based on a scientific fraud. Just to show you I"m not lying, here's an older post of mine about it here (http://www.theologyweb.com/campus/showpost.php?p=3043253&postcount=30). It hasn't even been implemented yet because of the skepticism of climate change, and I assure you, it has absolutely nothing to do with the state of the economy we're in now and will be in soon.

[Cow Poke]

CP, I'm not defending cap n trade, so I'm not sure why you're giving me the definition. I'm aware what it is and how it works and that it was designed by corporate criminals such as Enron and Goldman Sachs and is based on a scientific fraud. Just to show you I"m not lying, here's an older post of mine about it here (http://www.theologyweb.com/campus/showpost.php?p=3043253&postcount=30).

Cool, but you seemed to indicate that it was introduced by Obama, and you seemed to think that it is not hurtful to the economy.

You seem to give as your "support" for this opinion - "trust me".


It hasn't even been implemented yet because of the skepticism of climate change, and I assure you, it has absolutely nothing to do with the state of the economy we're in now and will be in soon.

I think I'll leave you to your ignorance, Sean... parts of it have been implemented for quite some time now - I have a whole "environmental" team and hundreds of thousands of dollars of fancy equipment to monitor our CAT engines...
We have long term contracts with customers who won't renew, because they're afraid of "Cap and Tax" - and all the big energy companies hire hundreds or thousands of support companies who employ people who depend on "the business", and a lot of it is "on hold" because of uncertainty in the markets.

Feel free to believe what you want, but I live this stuff. It is hurting business in a huge way.

[seanD]

Cool, but you seemed to indicate that it was introduced by Obama, and you seemed to think that it is not hurtful to the economy.

You seem to give as your "support" for this opinion - "trust me".



I think I'll leave you to your ignorance, Sean... parts of it have been implemented for quite some time now - I have a whole "environmental" team and hundreds of thousands of dollars of fancy equipment to monitor our CAT engines...
We have long term contracts with customers who won't renew, because they're afraid of "Cap and Tax" - and all the big energy companies hire hundreds or thousands of support companies who employ people who depend on "the business", and a lot of it is "on hold" because of uncertainty in the markets.

Feel free to believe what you want, but I live this stuff. It is hurting business in a huge way.

You're taking my "trust me" out of context. My "trust me" was specifically based on the average Americans knowledge of what cap n trade is. You work for an energy company for petesake, so I would imagine you're aware of it. Prove me wrong. Ask a dozen average people what it is and how it works. Maybe I'm underestimating the knowledge level of the general populace of westerners. And perhaps there are quite a few businesses affected by it. I personally don't believe this is the primary cause of a dollar collapse, based on my research how the monetary system works and how corrupt it is. You apparently do. But this is sort of like arguing how Joe, who's a chronic alcoholic, will crash his vehicle, either because he drives drunk or because he's a reckless speed demon. Perhaps the former, perhaps the latter, or perhaps because of both. The outcome is inevitable either way.

[Cow Poke]

You're taking my "trust me" out of context. My "trust me" was specifically based on the average Americans knowledge of what cap n trade is.

Did you delete that post? I couldn't find it - was trying to verify what your "trust me" was.

Why do you delete so many posts? :shrug:


You work for an energy company for petesake, so I would imagine you're aware of it. Prove me wrong. Ask a dozen average people what it is and how it works. Maybe I'm underestimating the knowledge level of the general populace of westerners. And perhaps there are quite a few businesses affected by it. I personally don't believe this is the primary cause of a dollar collapse, based on my research how the monetary system works and how corrupt it is. You apparently do.

Show me where I said that.
My point, and I have said, it is the uncertainty of the future - Cap and Tax is only part of the equation. I also mentioned health care. Then there's Obama's love affair with unions. Nobody knows what he's going to do next.

Uncertainty.

[/quote]But this is sort of like arguing how Joe, who's a chronic alcoholic, will crash his vehicle, either because he drives drunk or because he's a reckless speed demon. Perhaps the former, perhaps the latter, or perhaps because of both. The outcome is inevitable either way.[/quote]

Joe the plumber????? :smile:

[seanD]

Didn't delete any posts. It's post #5

[Cow Poke]

Didn't delete any posts. It's post #5

You have THREE deleted posts....:shrug:

Two between 4 and 5 and One between 10 and 11

[seanD]

You have THREE deleted posts....:shrug:

Two between 4 and 5 and One between 10 and 11

....


I think you're giving Americans and their level of perception way too much credit here. I seriously doubt most Americans even know what cap n trade is, much less how it works and what effect it would have on the economy. Trust me on this. Ask about a dozen people, at your work, on the street, or even some of your acquaintances what it is and how it works.

[One Bad Pig]

Didn't delete any posts. It's post #5
:lol: You delete posts all the time, seanD. Mods can see when people do that. I can take a screenshot if you like.

Anyway, back to the topic. It's rather unlikely that Obamacare will be repealed before the next presidential election; Republicans will likely make gains in both the House and Senate, but not enough for the 2/3 supermajority needed to override a veto.

[seanD]

:lol: You delete posts all the time, seanD. Mods can see when people do that. I can take a screenshot if you like.

Anyway, back to the topic. It's rather unlikely that Obamacare will be repealed before the next presidential election; Republicans will likely make gains in both the House and Senate, but not enough for the 2/3 supermajority needed to override a veto.


I delete posts when I make a mistake, yes. I would imagine everyone does. But I never deleted a post to try and change something I said after someone responded to it (or at least that's not my intention), which is what it sounded like CP was implying.

And you're correct, which further diminishes CP's argument. Everyone not living under a rock knows the Reps will take back the house and will most likely hinder any cap n trade policies.

[seanD]

And you're correct, which further diminishes CP's argument. Everyone not living under a rock knows the Reps will take back the house and will most likely hinder any cap n trade policies.

Scratch that. On re-reading OBP's comment a second time.

[Cow Poke]

Scratch that. On re-reading OBP's comment a second time.

:noid: Uncertainty :noid:

[seanD]

:noid: Uncertainty :noid:

I misread his post. It's just that sometimes I don't have much time to really go over posts carefully, and have to respond in a split second.

[seanD]

I was wrong.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/26/news/economy/consumer_confidence_october/

There is hope, folks. There is hope :lol: