The Permian Ice Age and the Prefect Storm (III) R&D Ceiling

[shunyadragon]

No new Thomas Edisons.

(3) The next factor is interesting, because it is rarely discussed and may be one of the straws that break the camels back in our current recession (Depression) and possible coming 'Permian Ice Age'. It is the potential 'Technology R&D Ceiling'. The late 19th and 20th century economy was heavily dependent on an increase in inventions and new technologies. R&D represented up to 2/3 of the economic growth in the world. The 21st century may present a far bleaker picture unless a really major major technology breakthrough can get us beyond the present barrier to invention and new technology. The past twenty years of the 20th century and the last ten years have been reworking and shuffling existing technologies in innovative ways, nothing new. This factor has been an issue of mergers in many large INCs, particularly in the drug and medical industry.

The other problem is our education system which became dependent on this demand for new inventions and technology. Over the course of the 20th century our universities have become increasingly dependent on funding and the resulting development of new inventions and technology The crisis in our education system is in large part do to the failure in recent decades to produce nothing significantly new and the increased costs and time involved in what little new advances are being made.

[shunyadragon]

The direction of R&D development problems is not totally apparent yet, but cracks are showing that do not bode well for the future.

For example, even though R&D development funds fro medicine have not decreased, but in some cases gone up the returns are not encouraging . . .

R&D Efficiency: As the output of new drugs remains flat, ever more costly and risky drug development will raise pressure on pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical firms to develop process and product innovations.

This has been this way for several if not many years. Notice the emphasis here on process and product innovations and not new products.

In this thread, I will be looking between the cracks befow the surface for the trends of what the future actually holds.

[shunyadragon]

the following site gives some interesting insight into the limits of technology that we face now and in the near future.

http://www.ibm.com/developerworks/rational/library/2082.html

From the book: The Rational Edge: Booch briefly examines factors -- from fundamental to human -- that limit what technology can achieve.

[shunyadragon]

the focus of this thread is not that there will not be any more inventions, and new technology, but the return on R&D is diminishing at a rate that threatens future R&D programs which has a domino effect on hightech employment, university funding that has become unbalanced dependent on tech funding, and the failure of many R&D programs by major corporations. This on the surface may seem troubling but not devastating to most, but the outcome can be ominous if this trend continues. One problem is many hope that new technology is the answer, and it may be part of the problem.

The first time I think this was put in a coherent for was in 1972 when the book Limits of Growth by Donella H. Meadows published by the Club of Rome. At the time there was limited documentation ofr thes conclusion, but since then there has been more research and evidence for this.

My first goal is get a copy of the book and read it again, and to try and find better references.

[shunyadragon]

Friends

The future funding of R & D looks bleak for 2012, because of two factors, one mentioned before. The diminishing returns for R & D funding and the continuing recession (depression) shifts priorities to a siege depression mentality. This is something to watch, and I will post more on this as things progress.

[Xru]

Interesting. I've read a bit about diminishing returns. I'll be interested in seeing where this leads.

[joel]

People have often predicted that such a limit has been reached.

Before Einstein, physicists predicted that there were no more physics discoveries to be made.

There's the famous quote in 1899, "Everything that can be invented has been invented."

In 1843 Commissioner of the U.S. Patent Office, Henry L. Ellsworth, reported to Congress, "The advancement of the arts, from year to year, taxes our credulity and seems to presage the arrival of that period when human improvement must end."

[shunyadragon]

People have often predicted that such a limit has been reached.

Before Einstein, physicists predicted that there were no more physics discoveries to be made.

There's the famous quote in 1899, "Everything that can be invented has been invented."

In 1843 Commissioner of the U.S. Patent Office, Henry L. Ellsworth, reported to Congress, "The advancement of the arts, from year to year, taxes our credulity and seems to presage the arrival of that period when human improvement must end."

this is one optimistic view, and yes some say there could be basic science breakthroughs that will bail us out. I sure would be happy to see it some, but considering the combination of factors we have never faced before, breakthroughs are more difficult than ever before.