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John Powell
June 12th 2003, 02:03 PM
Newscientist-1

POWELL:
In the thread "The Center of the Universe" in the philosophy department of TWEB, Socrates supported claims that the Sun is special for its type with two New Scientist articles. Four of the five scientists referred to in the letter responded to my emails. I will post the New Scientist Articles, the emails, and my comments.

First, I will post the two "New Scientist" articles. I will add boldfacing.

http://www.newscientist.com/


NEWSCIENTIST:
Thank our lucky star

New Scientist vol 161 issue 2168 - 09 January 1999, page 15

A catastrophic explosion on the Sun and long-distance calls to aliens were hot news at this week's meeting of the American Astronomical Society in Austin, Texas. Charles Seife reports

COULD the Sun send out a monstrous flare powerful enough to melt the ice on Jupiter's moons, destroy much of Earth's ozone layer and obliterate all our satellites? It's possible, say astronomers who have studied other Sun-like stars in our Galaxy, which seem to produce enormous "superflares" about once a century. They are baffled by the fact that there are no records of similar solar explosions.

Our Sun often sends flares towards Earth, and more energetic explosions can spit out giant blobs of ionised gas called coronal mass ejections. Roughly once or twice a decade, the eruption of stellar material is powerful enough to send huge electric currents racing around the Earth's upper atmosphere, disrupting power grids and communications satellites. In 1989, one such explosion knocked out a power grid in northern Quebec.

But at this week's meeting, a team of three astronomers reported that this kind of solar activity is mild compared with that of the Sun's sister stars. They studied records of lone stars in our Galaxy with roughly the same brightness, size and composition as the Sun. They found that over the past century, almost all these Sun-like stars had produced superflares that made them dramatically brighter for minutes or even days.

"One of the cases I have is a star, S-Fornax, where for a 40-minute period it was seen to be three magnitudes brighter than usual," says Brad Schaefer of Yale University, a member of the team. The astronomers conclude that Sun-like stars normally produce a bright superflare about once a century.

A superflare on the Sun would be about 10 000 times as powerful as the explosion that caused the Canadian blackout. "It would melt large flood plains on the outer, icy satellites," says Schaefer. Although life on Earth would survive, the atmosphere would glow very brightly and half the ozone layer would be destroyed in the blink of an eye, not to mention spacecraft. "You'd probably lose the entire satellite fleet," says Schaefer.

Why a superflare has not occurred on the Sun in recorded history is unclear. "I think a consensus is emerging that our Sun is extraordinarily stable," suggests Galen Gisler, an astronomer at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico. "We seem to have found a star that is extremely stable and friendly to life---or we are just on a star that happens to be stable right now and will not always be so."

Charles Seife


POWELL:
That was the New Scientist article by Charles Seife. The following is one by Marcus Chowm.


NEWSCIENTIST:
What a star!

New Scientist vol 162 issue 2192 - 26 June 1999, page 17

If the Sun is exceptional, alien life may be hard to find

DON'T believe everything you read in books---our Sun is no ordinary star. And its very uniqueness has implications for SETI, the search for extraterrestrial life, claims Guillermo Gonzalez of the University of Washington in Seattle: "Unless astronomers narrow down their search to stars as exceptional as the Sun, they are wasting much of their time."

The Sun is a single star whereas most stars are in multiple systems. But that apart, textbooks say the Sun is pretty average. However, after trawling through the data on the Sun, Gonzalez has found many idiosyncrasies. It is among the most massive 10 per cent of stars in its neighbourhood. It also has 50 per cent more heavy elements than other stars of its age and type, and about a third of the variation in brightness.

The most unusual aspects of the Sun concern its orbit around the centre of the Galaxy, says Gonzalez. Its orbit is significantly less elliptical than that of other stars of its age and type, and hardly inclined at all to the Galactic plane. What's more, the Sun is orbiting very close to the "corotation radius" for the Galaxy---the place at which the angular speed of the spiral pattern matches that of the stars.

Gonzalez argues that these exceptional characteristics made it possible for intelligent life to emerge on Earth. He points out that stable planetary orbits such as the Earth's are much more likely around single stars like the Sun. For a massive star with inhabitable planets that are relatively far away, stellar flare-ups would be little threat to the planets. Heavy elements are essential to make planets like Earth, and a star with a stable light output is essential for life.

As for the orbit of the Sun, its circularity prevents it plunging into the inner Galaxy where life-threatening supernovae are more common. And its small inclination to the Galactic plane prevents abrupt crossings of the plane that would stir up the Sun's Oort Cloud and bombard the Earth with comets. By being near the Galaxy's corotation radius, the Sun avoids crossing the spiral arms too often, an event that would expose it to supernovae, which are more common there.

Because life-bearing stars have to be close to the corotation radius, that rules out more than 95 per cent of stars in the Galaxy in one fell swoop. "There are fewer stars suitable for intelligent life than people realise," says Gonzalez, who has submitted his findings to Astronomy & Geophysics. "I'm amazed at how little thought the SETI people put into selecting their stars."

Seth Shostak of the SETI Institute in Mountain View, California, disagrees. "Our targets are all very close to the Sun. They share our Galactic neighbourhood and motions. If the Sun is the most suitable type of star to be scrutinised, then we are, indeed, looking in all the best places."

"Most astronomers disagree with Gonzalez," adds SETI researcher Dan Werthimer of the University of California at Berkeley. "Our Sun is pretty average. In any case, you don't need a star exactly like our Sun for life."

Marcus Chown


POWELL:
Next, I will post the emails.

John Powell

John Powell
June 12th 2003, 02:12 PM
NEWSCIENTIST-2: GALEN GISLER.

POWELL:
Here, I will post my emails to the four scientists who replied, Galen Gisler of Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, Brad Schaefer of University of Texas at Austin, Dan Werthimer of University of California at Berkeley, and Guillermo Gonzalez of Iowa State University. The only one who did not respond was Seth Shostak. I could not find Dr. Shostak's work email at SETI, so I sent the request via a newspaper site that promised to forward questions to him about SETI.

The first letter I sent was to Galen Gisler. He was also the first to respond. I will summarize this email exchange at the end of this post.


POWELL TO GISLER:
Galen Gisler,

In an article of the New Scientist vol. 161, issue 2168, 09 Jan 1999, pg. 15 by Charles Seife you are quoted.

- - - - - - - - -
<article by Charles Seife snipped>
- - - - - - - - - - -

Is this a fair report of what you said and meant?

Thank you for your time.

John Powell


POWELL:
This is Dr. Gisler's reply.


GISLER TO POWELL:
John,

The report is fair and accurate, though I don't remember having been interviewed for this. But this is old news. What prompts your concern now?

My attitude in early 1999 was that:


GISLER's ATTITUDE IN 1999:
(a) Life has evolved on a planet orbiting a star that is extraordinarily stable. This suggests (but by no means does it prove) that such extraordinary stability is required for life to evolve. Life may therefore be much rarer in the universe than we might otherwise hope to believe.

(b) On the other hand, the stability that we have experienced during recorded history (and as much as we can infer about geological history) may be a temporary phase, and we might expect a future "superflare" to deliver potentially catastrophic consequences for life here.


I have not heard much about superflares since the AAS meeting this article refers to. There was much skepticism (then and now) about Schaefer's result. A number of deep and thorough searches for astronomical transients have been conducted since then, and none of them have reported superflares. I don't know what Brad Schaefer thinks nowadays, but I now tend to the belief that the sun's stability is more typical than I thought three years ago, and that life might therefore be more common.

This is an interesting question, and if you have thoughts on this matter I would welcome hearing them.

Galen

<copy of letter from Powell to Gisler snipped>


POWELL:
The following is my second email to Dr. Gisler.


POWELL TO GISLER:
GALEN GISLER:
John,

The report is fair and accurate, though I don't remember having been interviewed for this. But this is old news. What prompts your concern now?

POWELL:
For two major reasons:

1. A young Earth Creationist is using reports like this to argue that our Sun is exceptionally stable for its type.

2. Concern that he might be right and my knowledge on this issue is out of date.

I am willing to allow for the Sun to be an unusually stable star for its spectral type - luminosity class if the data support that position. In agreement with your former views, that would mean we were more fortunate than previously thought. It would suggest that life as we know it is less likely than previously supposed.

My question was whether the best data supported that conclusion. Perhaps not. This might be another example of the too-common behavior of young Earth creationists who ignore the best data, instead proclaiming the data that best fits the answer they want to be true.

Thank you very much for sharing your views. Do I have your permission to post your letter to www.theologyweb.com in our discussions on this? The current discussion thread is in the philosophy department in the thread "The Center of the Universe." You don't have to join to read what has been written.

GALEN GISLER:
My attitude in early 1999 was that:

<snipped Gisler's attitude in early 1999>

<snipped Gisler's revised modern opinion>

This is an interesting question, and if you have thoughts on this matter I would welcome hearing them.

Galen

POWELL:
I may have something more useful to say after I've read what the other quoted scientists have said.

<snipped Powell's copy of first email to Gisler>


POWELL:
The following is Dr. Gisler's response to my second email.


GISLER TO POWELL:
John,

Thanks for clarifying this interest. YECs are notorious for glomming onto some bit of scientific fact or opinion and using it for their own purposes. Unfortunately their positioning has also caused good scientists to shy away from positions that might suggest YEC views. An example is the reluctance of paleontologists to accept (though they now mostly have done) the reality of mass extinction events.

I'm not sure how to answer your request to post my letter to
www.theologyweb.com. I guess I would prefer not, until I know more about this forum. I looked on the web site, and didn't find the thread you mentioned. Who sponsors this site?

Paraphrase me if you like. The main point is that Schaefer's view have been controversial since he first announced the superflare idea. I supported his point of view partly with a political motivation: I wanted to get funding for some transient survey telescopes, and was successful in that. These have been running, as have some others around the world, for 3+ years, and haven't reported any superflares. That result, like so many negative results in astronomy, is not likely to be published - because people don't have the energy to write up negative results. In particular, I've moved on to other things now.

Galen

<snipped copy of Powell's 2nd email to Gisler>


POWELL:
Evidently, Dr. Gisler then found the theologyweb.com thread and decided to give me permission.


GISLER TO POWELL:
John,

I've now located that thread you pointed me to (it was awfully late last night when I tried). Are you enjoying those discussions? You must be, because you post to them often. In my experience you can never come to closure between points of view that are empirically based and those that are based on misunderstood ancient texts.

One point of view in cosmology, the anthropic principle, holds that the reason the universe seems so well suited to humans is that in order for the universe to be observed it must produce observers. It's suggestive of the special role for the observer in quantum mechanics: the act of observation produces, or selects, the state of the universe.

This only requires one set of observers - which troubles me because we could indeed be quite alone in the universe - our planet with rather unique conditions (a moon large enough to raise significant tides to enhance the evolution of land-based life, for example) orbiting a uniquely stable star in a truly special location (far enough from catastrophic supernovae or gamma-ray burst explosions yet close enough for a decent cosmogenic mutation rate). One could go on and on.

I don't like the anthropic arguments, but I don't much like theology either. Both of these take a step beyond empiricism into the realm of meaning and imagination and end up being rationally indefensible. Many points of view are equally valid (or invalid).

Anthropic type arguments feed right into Creationist views, yet were mostly developed by natural empiricists. It's the attitude towards the data, rather than the data themselves, that motivates folks.

Go ahead and quote me to your forum, if you like.

Galen


POWELL:
Here's my summary:

The New Scientist article correctly quoted Dr. Gisler's views of early 1999. His views at that time were supportive of Dr. Schaefer's view that the Sun was especially stable against superflares. Investigations by himself and others since that time, however, do not support Dr. Schaefer's view, so Dr. Gisler now thinks the Sun is more typically stable for its type than he had thought in early 1999.

John Powell

John Powell
June 12th 2003, 02:14 PM
NEWSCIENTIST-3: BRAD SCHAEFER.

POWELL:
The second letter I sent was to Brad Schaefer. He was also the second to respond. I will summarize this email exchange at the end of this post.


POWELL TO SCHAEFER:
Brad Schaefer,

In an article of the New Scientist vol. 161, issue 2168, 09 Jan 1999, pg. 15 by Charles Seife you are quoted.

- - - - - - - - -
<snipped New Scientist article>
- - - - - - - - - - -

Is this a fair report of what you said and meant?

Thank you for your time.

John Powell


POWELL:
The following is Dr. Schaefer's reply to my first email.


SCHAEFER TO POWELL:
Hi;
For a short version, this report is good. The full papers appear in the Astrophysical Journal (2000, vol529, pages 1026-1030 and 1031-1033). The point is that I have found many cases where stars-identical-to-our-Sun have suffered Superflares (lasting from minutes to days) that have energies from 100 to 10000000 times the biggest ever event ever seen on our Sun. This is *not* to say that *our* Sun will or has ever had such a Superflare. Nevertheless, we can imagine a what-if, and realize that a medium -to-large Superflare on our Sun would cause mass extinctions due to ozone depletion. There might well be implication for the origin and frequency of life throughout the Universe. Superflares are unpredictable (at least now) and rare (perhaps once a century on a given star), so it is very difficult to collect data and examples of superflares.

Cheers,
Brad

On Fri, 16 May 2003, John Powell wrote:

<snipped copy of email from Powell to Schaefer>


POWELL:
Here is my second email to Dr. Schaefer.


POWELL TO SCHAEFER:

<snipped copy of email from Schaefer to Powell>

POWELL:
Brad, thanks for your quick reply! I hope you are willing to respond again.

Exciting results. Important things to consider in estimating the frequency of biospheres in the universe. It's interesting that you have discovered there are "many" G2 V stars which exhibit these superflares. In your view, are occasional (on some relevant time scale) superflares typical of G2 V stars, or unusual? In particular,

Q: Is the Sun exceptionally stable against superflares for its G2 V spectral type - luminosity class or is it ordinarily stable? What is your expert opinion?

Thanks again!

John Powell

On Fri, 16 May 2003, John Powell wrote:

<snipped copy of first email from Powell to Schaefer>


POWELL:
Here is Dr. Schaefer's second reply.


SCHAEFER TO POWELL:
Hi;
My rather poor statistics are that the average G-type main sequence star has a Superflare every century or so. Now this might be that all such stars Superflare every century or it might be that 1% of the stars Superflare every year while the rest never Superflare. In the referenced paper, I present evidence that our Sun has never had a Superflare. In the second of the two papers, I present a model (which might actually be correct) that suggests that Superflares are caused by the winding up of magnetic fields when a star has a close-in planet (a 'hot-Jupiter' as are now known to be everywhere) until the magnetic fields recombine (as in a solar flare). This model is plausible, and if true wuold explain why our Sun never has Superflares (i.e., Jupiter is not rotating in Mercury's orbit).

Cheers,
Brad


POWELL:
Here is my third email to Dr. Schaefer.


POWELL TO SCHAEFER:
Brad,

Very interesting. In astronomy, answers that are correct to within only a factor of two are sometimes welcome.

Please answer these:

Q1. In your expert opinion, relative to the average G2 V star, is the Sun especially stable against superflares?

Q2. As far as you know, have those trying to test this conclusion generally confirmed it or brought doubt upon it?

If the answer to Q1 is "yes" and to Q2 "confirm", then your conclusion suggests we might be more special than previously thought. Perhaps you're right that we don't suffer the superflares that the majority of G2 V stars suffer because we don't have a "hot Jupiter".

It was my understanding that having Jupiter where it is may have helped the formation of life on Earth for at least two reasons.

1) By scattering bodies so far and wide early on that they either collided early on or were thrown far away from us so we are now relatively free from major comet impacts.

2) Also, Jupiter may help to produce a more stable orbit for Earth than would otherwise be the case.

I don't know, but both of these sound possible.

Do I have your permission to post your replies to www.theologyweb.com?

John Powell

<snipped copy of 2nd email of Schaefer to Powell>


POWELL:
Because I had received the permission of the other three scientists to post our emails, lacking only Dr. Schaefer's, I sent the following email.


POWELL TO SCHAEFER:
Brad,

I'm sorry for asking too many questions. Perhaps you feel the need to do some checking on more recent results to answer me more fully. I was hoping to hear what you think currently without asking too much of you.

Could you just tell me whether I can quote our email exchanges thus far to www.theologyweb.com? The discussion is in the philosophy department in the thread called "The Center of the Universe." I'm still interested in the other questions if you have time to answer them to your satisfaction.

The other 3 scientists I have corresponded with have given their permission to post our emails. I only lack your permission to bring some closure to this aspect of our discussion on whether the Sun is a special star for its type.

Gratefully yours,

John Powell


POWELL:
This is Dr. Schaeffer's reply.


SCHAEFER TO POWELL:
SCHAEFER:
Hi;
Just got back from a long trip...

POWELL:
Could you just tell me whether I can quote our email exchanges thus far to www.theologyweb.com?

SCHAEFER:
Fine, with the usual caveats that the quotes be attributed and in context.

POWELL:
The other 3 scientists I have corresponded with have given their permission to post our emails. I only lack your permission to bring some closure to this aspect of our discussion on whether the Sun is a special star for its type.

SCHAEFER:
*Anything* is unusual if looked at closely enough. So everything depends solely on what your definition of "special" is...

Cheers,
Brad


POWELL:
Here's my summary:

The New Scientist article is a fair quote of Dr. Schaefer's views at that time. He supported the idea that our Sun is especially stable against superflares that occur for the average Sunlike star about once every century or so. He still supports this view. In addition, he has suggested a possible mechanism for why our Sun has fewer superflares than might be expected, the fact that our Solar System doesn't have a "hot" (close to the Sun) Jupiter.

John Powell

John Powell
June 12th 2003, 02:18 PM
NEWSCIENTIST-4: GUILLERMO GONZALEZ.

POWELL:
The third letter I sent was to Guillermo Gonzalez. He was also the third to respond. I will summarize this email exchange at the end of this post.


POWELL TO GONZALEZ
Guillermo Gonzalez,

In an article of the New Scientist vol. 162, issue 2192, 26 June 1999, pg. 17 by Marcus Chown you are quoted.

- - - - - - - - - - -
<snipped New Scientist article>
- - - - - - - - - - -

Is this a fair report of what you said and meant?

Thank you for your time.

John Powell


POWELL:
Here is Dr. Gonzalez's first reply.


GONZALEZ TO POWELL:
John,

Before I answer your question, can you tell me a bit about your reasons for asking? Will this be part of a book, documentary, newspaper article?

Thanks,

Guillermo Gonzalez

<snipped copy of first email from Powell to Gonzalez>


POWELL:
Here's my second email to Dr. Gonzalez.


POWELL TO GONZALEZ:
GONZALEZ:
John,

Before I answer your question, can you tell me a bit about your reasons for asking? Will this be part of a book, documentary, newspaper article?

Thanks,

Guillermo Gonzalez

POWELL:
That's an appropriate question. It's not for a book, a documentary, or a newspaper article, but for a discussion forum.

If you give me permission then I plan to post your reply to my question to the discussion forum www.theologyweb.com If you don't give me permission to quote you then I will say you responded but would not give me permission to share it.

I am in a discussion with a young Earth creationist who is using articles like this one in New Scientist to argue that our Sun is exceptionally good for life for its spectral type rather than ordinarily good for its spectral type. I am willing to concede to that view if the best evidence supports that conclusion, but I'm not sure that's the case yet. What you are reported to have said seems to support my opponent.

The discussion is in the philosophy department in the thread "The Center of the Universe." You don't have to join to read what has been written.

Does this answer your question? If not, I welcome another opportunity.

John Powell

<snipped copy of first email from Powell to Gonzalez>


POWELL:
Here's the second reply from Dr. Gonzalez.


GONZALEZ TO POWELL:
John,

Thanks for your honesty. Yes, the quote from New Scientist is a fair representation of what I said and meant.

Best,

Guillermo

<snipped copies of previous emails between Powell and Gonzalez>


POWELL:
The following is my third email to Dr. Gonzalez.


POWELL TO GONZALEZ:
GONZALEZ:

John,

Thanks for your honesty. Yes, the quote from New Scientist is a fair representation of what I said and meant.

Best,

Guillermo

POWELL:
Thanks, Guillermo. I don't want to over-try your patience, but I hope you won't mind if I correspond a little bit more with you. If you don't want to answer any more questions, I'll understand that and appreciate what you've done so far.

NEW SCIENTIST:
The Sun is a single star whereas most stars are in multiple systems.

POWELL:
I agree this is significant. Due to greater planetary orbital stability, I think it's fair to say that biospheres will exist on planets orbiting single stars more than those in binary star systems.

NEW SCIENTIST:
But that apart, textbooks say the Sun is pretty average.

POWELL:
The Sun is not an "average" star as textbooks too often suggest, since most stars in the universe are M-type main sequence stars. It would be like saying human beings are "average-sized" animals. Humans are above average in size. Likewise, the Sun is above average in things like mass and luminosity.

NEW SCIENTIST:
However, after trawling through the data on the Sun, Gonzalez has found many idiosyncrasies.

It is among the most massive 10 per cent of stars in its neighbourhood.

POWELL:
That should not surprise you, Guillermo, given that most stars are M-type main sequence stars, right? Surely, you aren't claiming the Sun is among the most massive 10% of G2 V stars in its neighborhood, right?

NEW SCIENTIST:
It also has 50 per cent more heavy elements than other stars of its age and type, and about a third of the variation in brightness.

POWELL:
I agree that the high metal abundance for its age is significant. Presumably the Sun formed in a star cluster that was especially enriched in heavy metals, right? I guess that makes sense about it being unusual in metal abundance for its spectral type too.

Now, about this variation in brightness. Evidently, you believe that our Sun is unusually stable in brightness with respect to the average G2 V star, is that correct? Could you point me to the scientific articles you use to support that claim?

NEW SCIENTIST:
The most unusual aspects of the Sun concern its orbit around the centre of the Galaxy, says Gonzalez. Its orbit is significantly less elliptical than that of other stars of its age and type, and hardly inclined at all to the Galactic plane.

POWELL:
Ok, I guess.

NEW SCIENTIST:
What's more, the Sun is orbiting very close to the "corotation radius" for the Galaxy---the place at which the angular speed of the spiral pattern matches that of the stars.

POWELL:
Presumably this means the star system spends more time in the gaps between the spiral arms. Some don't think this is that important, but you do.

NEW SCIENTIST:
Gonzalez argues that these exceptional characteristics made it possible for intelligent life to emerge on Earth. He points out that stable planetary orbits such as the Earth's are much more likely around single stars like the Sun.

POWELL:
Ok, I guess.

NEW SCIENTIST:
For a massive star with inhabitable planets that are relatively far away, stellar flare-ups would be little threat to the planets. Heavy elements are essential to make planets like Earth, and a star with a stable light output is essential for life.

POWELL;
Ok, I guess.

NEW SCIENTIST:
As for the orbit of the Sun, its circularity prevents it plunging into the inner Galaxy where life-threatening supernovae are more common.

POWELL:
First, roughly how much greater is the frequency and proximity of supernovas in the bulge of the Galaxy than in our part of the Galaxy?

Next, if the frequency of supernovas around us were 10x greater than it currently is, would that have likely prevented Earth from having an extensive biosphere?

Finally: In your opinion, Guillermo, given the higher stellar density and higher supernova frequency in the bulge of the Galaxy, but ignoring other issues like metallicity, do you think the NUMBER of Earth-like biospheres in the bulge is probably much less, about the same, or much more than the NUMBER in an equal volume of space centered on the Sun but in a corotation annulus around the Galaxy??

NEW SCIENTIST:
And its small inclination to the Galactic plane prevents abrupt crossings of the plane that would stir up the Sun's Oort Cloud and bombard the Earth with comets.

POWELL:
On the other hand, Guillermo, couldn't it be the case that such a major passage would so disrupt the Oort cloud early on after only one or a few initial passages, that the biosphere would be largely free of major cometary impacts from then on?

Roughly speaking, Guillermo, how much more frequent would be major comet collisions with Earth if our orbit had the maximum galactic inclination? In other words, if our Sun were a halo star so it spent most of its time far from the plane of the galaxy, how much more likely do you speculate that it would suffer biosphere destroying comet impacts?

On the other hand, perhaps a vertically sinusoidal orbit in the plane of the Galaxy that repeatedly goes through the plane would be even worse than a highly inclined orbit that rarely goes through the plane.

NEW SCIENTIST:
By being near the Galaxy's corotation radius, the Sun avoids crossing the spiral arms too often, an event that would expose it to supernovae, which are more common there.

POWELL:
The same kinds of questions about bulge supernovas applies here.

How many more supernovas, roughly speaking, would you expect us to have to deal with if we weren't essentially in the co-rotation orbit, in other words, if we were to more frequently pass through spiral arms?

Even if there were 10x more supernovas in our part of the Galaxy than we experience currently (because of passage through the spiral arms, say) then would that really make much difference to the survivability of our biosphere?

NEW SCIENTIST (CHOWM):
Because life-bearing stars have to be close to the corotation radius, that rules out more than 95 per cent of stars in the Galaxy in one fell swoop.

POWELL;
Uh oh. Did you really mean to support this Guillermo? Are you supporting Chowm's report of your message that it is ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE for life to exist on a planet orbiting a star that is not close to the corotation radius? In other words, life ABSOLUTELY CANNOT exist in the bulge or in the halo of our galaxy or at distances from the center of the galaxy that aren't close to the corotation radius? Perhaps Chowm read more into your words than you meant, eh?

NEW SCIENTIST:
"There are fewer stars suitable for intelligent life than people realise," says Gonzalez, who has submitted his findings to Astronomy & Geophysics. "I'm amazed at how little thought the SETI people put into selecting their stars."

POWELL:
Did that paper ever get published?

I hope you don't find my comments and questions unbearable, Guillermo. I'm seeking the truth whatever it is. If young Earth creationists are going to use the opinions of good scientists to support their views, I want reasonable assurance that those opinions are scientifically justified.

I am grateful for your attention and wish you the best in all that you do.

John Powell

<snipped copies of previous emails>


POWELL:
Here is the third reply of Dr. Gonzalez.


GONZALEZ TO POWELL:
John,

I'm not going to answer your specific questions (I really don't have the time to get into detailed discussions), but I will point you to some published resources. Take a look at my Astronomy & Geophysics (1999) paper on the anomalous properties of the Sun. Bengt Gustafsson wrote a similar paper about a year before I did (do a search on NASA ADS). I also wrote a paper for Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society in 1999 where I addressed some of these issues. Finally, take a look at my Icarus paper on the Galactic Habitable Zone. I hope to revisit the question of the Sun's anomalous properties in the near future with a look at new datasets. I'm sorry to be so short with you, but I don't get involved in protracted email discussions.

Best,

Guillermo

<snipped copies of previous emails>


POWELL:
Here's my fourth reply.


POWELL TO GONZALEZ:
Guillermo,

Thank you for this reply. As I said earlier, if you don't want to go into a longer dialogue, I would be grateful for what you've said thus far. Thanks for the references.

Good luck in all you do,

John Powell

<snipped copies of previous emails>


POWELL:
Here's my long summary:

The New Scientist article is a correct quote of the views of Dr. Gonzalez. He supports the view that the Sun is special in a number of important ways, not all of which relate to whether the Sun is special for its type which is what Socrates and I are debating. His views on this, in certain cases, are a minority scientific view. My summary of the views of Dr. Gonzalez is in italics. My comments follow in normal type.

1. The Sun is a single star. This is important since binaries might produce unstable orbits as Dr. Gonzalez says later or, I would add, have fewer planets to start with. Being a "bachelor" puts the Sun in an approximately 1/3 minority group.

2. The Sun is one of the most massive stars in the solar neighborhood. This is not relevant to whether the Sun is special for its type. It's to be expected since most stars in the universe are less massive than G2 V stars.

3. The Sun is not average like so many textbooks say. I agree, but this again is not relevant to whether the Sun is special for its type. G2 V stars are above average in mass and luminosity since most stars in the universe are the low mass, low luminosity M-type main sequence stars.

4. The Sun is unusually metal strong for its age and type. This is true and important. Presumably, stars of higher metal abundance will produce more and / or larger rocky planets. If the Sun were metal normal for its age and type perhaps Earth would not be large enough to support life to the great extent that it does.

5. The Sun has significantly less luminosity variation than other stars of its age and type. This is controversial and is one of the major points of debate with Socrates. The fact that Dr. Gonzalez and others support this minority view justifies, I think, Socrates to say "A minority of astronomers believe that the Sun is unusually stable with respect to luminosity than the average star of its type," but does NOT justify Socrates making claims that suggest that this is the scientific consensus or majority opinion.

6. The Sun's galactic orbit is significantly less elliptical than that of other stars of its age and type. Apparently true, but it's controversial how important this would be to life. Not passing into the bulge probably reduces the number of supernovas we have to deal with, but this doesn't seem to be that important as I'll explain in item 7.

7. The Sun's corotation galactic orbit significantly reduces nearby supernova events. It probably does reduce the number of nearby supernova events Earth experiences since we don't pass into major spiral arms frequently, but it's doubtful to me whether it's an important factor at the scales involved. That's because supernovas in our neighborhood right now might cause some extinctions but don't appear to be a major threat to the survival of our biosphere. With even 10x as many supernovas --- something that might be expected if our Sun were to pass into those more dangerous areas --- then I don't think our biosphere would be in serious jeopardy of complete destruction. Our Sun is in a small arm segment right now, called the Orion Spiral Arm, so perhaps we're not in the optimum location after all.

8. The small inclination to the Galactic plane of the Sun prevents abrupt crossings of the plane that would stir up the Sun's Oort Cloud and bombard the Earth with comets. This speculation might be significant, but might not. If the Sun had a high galactic inclination and so suffered abrupt plane crossings then one might expect the Oort Cloud to be so stirred up early on that by now we wouldn't have much to worry about anyways.

9. Because life-bearing stars have to be close to the corotation radius, that rules out more than 95 per cent of stars in the Galaxy in one fell swoop. These are Chowm's words, not those of Gonzalez, although Gonzalez supported the article in general. Whether Gonzalez believes this or not, I'm quite sure this ultra-restrictive view on life is out of line with the majority scientific view. It might be MORE PROBABLE for life in Solar Systems at the corotation radius, but surely life doesn't HAVE TO BE on planets in that galactic position.

Let me add, that the reader should not complain too much that Dr. Gonzalez was worse than the scientists who supported my position because of his reluctance to answer my last string of questions since Socrates or an ally did not "grill" them to see how they might have responded to criticial questions of their position. They might have taken the same "no debate" approach as Dr. Gonzalez.

John Powell

John Powell
June 12th 2003, 02:21 PM
NEWSCIENTIST-5: DAN WERTHIMER.

POWELL:
The fourth letter I sent was to Dan Werthimer. He was also the fourth to respond. I will summarize this email exchange at the end of this post.


POWELL TO WERTHIMER:
Dan Werthimer,

In an article of the New Scientist vol. 162, issue 2192, 26 June 1999, pg. 17 by Marcus Chown you are quoted.

- - - - - - - - - - -
<snipped most of New Scientist article>

"Most astronomers disagree with Gonzalez," adds SETI researcher Dan Werthimer of the University of California at Berkeley. "Our Sun is pretty average. In any case, you don't need a star exactly like our Sun for life."

- - - - - - - - - - -

Is this a fair report of what you said and meant?

Thank you for your time.

John Powell


POWELL:
The following is Dr. Werthimer's reply.


WERTHIMER TO POWELL:

yes, this is an accurate quote. my guess is that you can have good planets and life on F,G,K or M stars (our Sun is a G star). life is unlikely on O, B and A stars because they are very hot and burn out quickly, so life probably won't have much time to develop.

best wishes,

dan

<snipped copy of first email from Powell to Werthimer>


POWELL:
Here is my second email to Dr. Werthimer.


POWELL TO WERTHIMER:
DAN WERTHIMER:
yes, this is an accurate quote. my guess is that you can have good planets and life on F,G,K or M stars (our Sun is a G star). life is unlikely on O, B and A stars because they are very hot and burn out quickly, so life probably won't have much time to develop.

best wishes,

dan

POWELL:
Thanks for responding Dan!

Do I have your permission to post your reply to the discussion forum where I am discussing this? It's www.theologyweb.com in the philosophy section in the thread "The Center of the Universe." I'm in a discussion with a young Earth Creationist who is using articles like this one in New Scientist to argue that our Sun is exceptionally good for life for its spectral type rather than ordinarily good for its type.

Thanks again!

John Powell

<snipped copy of first email from Powell to Werthimer>


POWELL:
The following is Dr. Werthimer's second response.


WERTHIMER TO POWELL:
hi john,

you are welcome to post my email. best wishes on your forum.

dan

<snipped copies of previous emails between Powell to Werthimer>


POWELL:
Here's my summary:

The New Scientist article is a correct quote of Dr. Werthimer's views. Unlike the minority opinion of Dr. Gonzalez and a few others, Dr. Werthimer and the majority of scientists do not consider the Sun to be that special. Dr. Werthimer thinks life is possible on all spectral-type stars, but is most likely to survive for long time periods on planets orbiting the cooler, longer-living type stars, namely F, G, K, and M.

John Powell

John Powell
June 12th 2003, 02:23 PM
NEWSCIENTIST-6: Summary

POWELL:
Socrates is justified in pointing to the expert opinions of respected scientists like Dr. Gonzalez and Dr. Schaefer which support his view that the Sun is especially stable for its spectral type, but should understand that this is currently the minority scientific view.

John Powell

Socrates
June 12th 2003, 09:46 PM
Thank you sir! :joy:

I suppose this means that the AiG article published in 1999, The Sun—Our special star (http://www.answersingenesis.org/docs/4180.asp) was reflecting information current at the time, and could well be current now.

It was also an interesting admission by Dr Gisler about how some scientists refuse to adopt positions because of non-scientific criteria, i.e. if they are perceived to provide support for YEC.

John Powell
June 13th 2003, 10:09 AM
Today @ 02:46 AM post located here (http://www.theologyweb.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&postid=121544#post121544)
Socrates:

Thank you sir! :joy:


POWELL:
You're welcome.


SOCRATES:
I suppose this means that the AiG article published in 1999, The Sun—Our special star (http://www.answersingenesis.org/docs/4180.asp) was reflecting information current at the time, and could well be current now.


POWELL:
I started reading that article and will comment in detail later. I'll post my response in the science section.


SOCRATES:
It was also an interesting admission by Dr Gisler about how some scientists refuse to adopt positions because of non-scientific criteria, i.e. if they are perceived to provide support for YEC.

POWELL:
I agree to some extent. I would say that most scientists would be strongly reluctant to adopt positions suggested by their data if those positions are perceived to support YEC.

I felt more resistance from Dr. Gonzalez and Dr. Schaefer to express their opinions probably because they recognize that their views are minority ones. It is important that enough leeway is given to minority opinions so that science can progress at a good pace. Just because a scientific result happens to support some religious view they don't agree with is not good justification for hiding it under the rug. Bring it into the open and let the chips fall where they may.

John Powell

Passant
June 13th 2003, 08:10 PM
Very impressive work John Powell!
And I really liked this,


Just because a scientific result happens to support some religious view they don't agree with is not good justification for hiding it under the rug. Bring it into the open and let the chips fall where they may.

Well said!

John Powell
June 14th 2003, 01:12 PM
PASSANT:
Very impressive work John Powell!

. . .

Well said!


POWELL:
Thanks, Passant

There may be some problems with my point of view on this, however. I'm still thinking about it.

It's appropriate to present the scientific results without undue religious fanfare, but I don't think the atheist scientist should try to drum up support for his research by advertising specifically to the religious groups who might see his research as supportive of their views. I see atheist scientists using terms like "the mind of God" and "the finger of God" when referring to certain results in cosmology as possibly some of this. On the other hand, maybe they're mostly just trying to reduce the amount of science-religion fighting.

John Powell