How Far was Japans Nuclear Project?

[Nicholas]

There was just a show on the History Channel about Japans Atomic Project during World War Two, and if what they said was accurate, they may have actually detonated a nuclear explosion near on island off of the coast of what is now North Korea.

[TheOneAndOnly]

I wasn't even aware they had a nuclear program. I doubt it was very well developed if they did. I don't think Japan had the industrial capacity, wealth, resources or technical experts comparable to even Nazi Germany, let alone America. And the German Nuclear project did really get very far, so I doubt the Japanese fared any better.
Don't forget it cost America an awful lot of money to run the Manhatten Project. And it consumed an awful lot of resources and brainpower. America imported scientists from many different Allied countries to work on the project.

[Minnesota]

TheOneAndOnly,

I caught the program, and everything you suggest is wrong. Japan had a very vigorous nuclear program in operation, two, in fact. One was operated by the army and the other by the navy. Its scientists were quite competent, one having worked with Niels Bohr. The only thing they lacked was enough uranium to build atomic bombs. But they solved this problem by making a deal with Germany, who shipped them enough to make several bombs. Unfortunately, for Japan, it didn't arrive in time. We dropped our bombs and ended the war before the German submarine transporting the uranium could make its delivery--we eventually captured it. And, it was reported that the navy program, which was working in Korea, even detonated a small nuclear device. If the program runs again, be sure to catch it.

[Nicholas]

I caught the program, and everything you suggest is wrong. Japan had a very vigorous nuclear program in operation, two, in fact. One was operated by the army and the other by the navy. Its scientists were quite competent, one having worked with Niels Bohr. The only thing they lacked was enough uranium to build atomic bombs. But they solved this problem by making a deal with Germany, who shipped them enough to make several bombs. Unfortunately, for Japan, it didn't arrive in time. We dropped our bombs and ended the war before the German submarine transporting the uranium could make its delivery--we eventually captured it. And, it was reported that the navy program, which was working in Korea, even detonated a small nuclear device. If the program runs again, be sure to catch it.

Glad to see I'm not the only who saw the program. I thought it was very interesting that they may have actually detonated a nuclear weapon, although we'll probably never know since the Soviets would likely have taken everything and North Korea controls the area where they reportedly detonated the device.

[Sheepdog]

dang.... this gives me an idea for an alternate world scenario. what would things be like if Japan was instead the first to detonate a-bombs over enemy cities? might make for interesting fiction.

[Nicholas]

dang.... this gives me an idea for an alternate world scenario. what would things be like if Japan was instead the first to detonate a-bombs over enemy cities? might make for interesting fiction.

Oooh, I love Alternate History.

[Ryokan]

It was a godd show, but I am skeptical. North Korea would have busted out with this already if it were even semi true.

[Nicholas]

It was a godd show, but I am skeptical. North Korea would have busted out with this already if it were even semi true.

Not if the Russians had taken most of the stuff already.

[Ryokan]

Not if the Russians had taken most of the stuff already.
They could tell where the nuke went off. Then, headline, "Japanese Capitalist, Reactionary Bandits attack Korea with Nuclear Bomb!" TodayOur great leader anounced....

[Nicholas]

They could tell where the nuke went off. Then, headline, "Japanese Capitalist, Reactionary Bandits attack Korea with Nuclear Bomb!" TodayOur great leader anounced....

Possibly, but remember why would they even have thought to look for nuclear test sites there? If they're not looking I doubt they'd find anything. And even if the Russians were looking why would they tell North Korea about it at that time?

[Ryokan]

Possibly, but remember why would they even have thought to look for nuclear test sites there? If they're not looking I doubt they'd find anything. And even if the Russians were looking why would they tell North Korea about it at that time?
When Kim bites it, we will know for sure.

[Nicholas]

When Kim bites it, we will know for sure.

Kim Jong Ill isn't someone I'd really count on looking at a nuke site and knowing what it is, I mean this is the guy who kidnapped a film director and his wife and had them produce a horrible knock off of Godzilla. If anything he'll blame the American Government, not Japan, or else he'll blame evil capitalist moles for the giant hole in the ground...

[Ryokan]

Kim Jong Ill isn't someone I'd really count on looking at a nuke site and knowing what it is, I mean this is the guy who kidnapped a film director and his wife and had them produce a horrible knock off of Godzilla. If anything he'll blame the American Government, not Japan, or else he'll blame evil capitalist moles for the giant hole in the ground...
His dad wasn't like that, though.

[Nicholas]

His dad wasn't like that, though.

Oh, you meant his father, ok.

But seriously, just because North Korea didn't say anything doesn't mean that it's not possible.

[Ryokan]

Oh, you meant his father, ok.

But seriously, just because North Korea didn't say anything doesn't mean that it's not possible.
I know. But it makes it less likely.

[Nicholas]

I know. But it makes it less likely.

What about the other information that they talked about with regards to their nuclear program?

[TheOneAndOnly]

I caught the program, and everything you suggest is wrong. Japan had a very vigorous nuclear program in operation, two, in fact. One was operated by the army and the other by the navy. Its scientists were quite competent, one having worked with Niels Bohr. The only thing they lacked was enough uranium to build atomic bombs. But they solved this problem by making a deal with Germany, who shipped them enough to make several bombs. Unfortunately, for Japan, it didn't arrive in time. We dropped our bombs and ended the war before the German submarine transporting the uranium could make its delivery--we eventually captured it. And, it was reported that the navy program, which was working in Korea, even detonated a small nuclear device. If the program runs again, be sure to catch it.

Interesting. I have never even heard of a Japanese Nuke programme. I'm still pretty sceptical that they actually had any "blueprints" for a viable weapon. The Manhatten Project had all sorts of technical problems that required some of the greatest minds from America, Britain and other nations to solve. I don't think Japan had the expertise to actually build a bomb. But that's just a hunch.
Here's an intersting article I found:
http://www.answers.com/topic/japanese-atomic-program

Also this site seems interesting (I'm assuming it's accurate): http://www.geocities.com/Tokyo/Gulf/4963/jnuke.html
Between December 1942 and March 1943 the Navy committee organized a ten-session physics colloquium to work through to a decision. By then it was understood that a bomb would necessitate locating, mining and processing hundreds of tons of uranium ore and that U235 separation would require a tenth of the annual Japanese electrical capacity and half the nation’s copper output. The colloquium concluded that while an atomic bomb was certainly possible, Japan might need ten years to build one. The scientists believed that neither Germany nor the United States had sufficient spare industrial capacity to produce atomic bombs in time to be of use in the war.

That's what I thought. Japan wasn't anywhere near as industrialised as America back in the 40s, and so it would have required a gargantuan effort to start a viable nuclear programme.

After the final March 6 meeting the Navy representative at the colloquium reported discouragement: "The best minds of Japan, studying the subject from the point of view of their respective fields of endeavor as well as from that of national defense, came to a conclusion that can only be regarded as correct. The more they considered and discussed the problem, the more pessimistic became the atmosphere of the meeting."

...

By summer Nishina’s group had manufactured some 170 grams of uranium hexafluoride— in the United States hex was now being produced by the ton—and in July attempted a first thermal separation.

[Nicholas]

That's what I thought. Japan wasn't anywhere near as industrialised as America back in the 40s, and so it would have required a gargantuan effort to start a viable nuclear programme.

Well, assuming the show on the History Channel was accurate, they moved it to Korea because it was a more industrialized area and if I remember what they said correctly, they said that Korea had a supply of Uranium that they could mine.

[TheOneAndOnly]

Well, assuming the show on the History Channel was accurate, they moved it to Korea because it was a more industrialized area and if I remember what they said correctly, they said that Korea had a supply of Uranium that they could mine.

Well I don't really know much about that. However, I find it doubtful as Japan's industrial capacity was dwarfed by America's and it took America years to develop its program. I don't doubt that Japan may have tried to start a nuclear programme and may have drawn up designs for a nuclear weapon, but I doubt they had the resources, wealth, manpower or scientific capacity to get the programme to a level where they could have built an actual fission bomb. And I doubt their designs could have been realised, as the Manhattan Project had numerous difficult little problems to overcome that required feats of inginuity and expertise. Designing the most costly and complex instrument ever imagined on earth and actually building a working model of it are two different things.

Also, I'm suspicious about how the Japanese intended to deliver their bomb to any target? Their navy was crippled as the war drew to a close, and I'm not sure if they had any heavy, long range bombers like America. What exactly did they intend to do with a bomb once they made it?

If Germany's programme didn't get very far then I see no reaosn why Japan's should have. Germany was more industrialised than Japan, and had a much better scientific pool to get experts from. Maybe Japan took the bomb project more seriously though?

[Ryokan]

I think O&O informationh sounds most realistic.

[Nicholas]

Well I don't really know much about that. However, I find it doubtful as Japan's industrial capacity was dwarfed by America's and it took America years to develop its program. I don't doubt that Japan may have tried to start a nuclear programme and may have drawn up designs for a nuclear weapon, but I doubt they had the resources, wealth, manpower or scientific capacity to get the programme to a level where they could have built an actual fission bomb. And I doubt their designs could have been realised, as the Manhattan Project had numerous of difficult little problems to overcome that required feats of inginuity.

Also, I'm suspicious about how the Japanese intended to deliver their bomb to any target? Their navy was crippled as the war drew to a close, and I'm not sure if they had any heavy, long range bombers like America. What exactly did they intend to do with a bomb once they made it?



I wish I could remember more of the details of the show, but while I admit that there are problems with their being able to produce an atomic weapon with limited resources I wouldn't say that it would impossible that they could have.

[TheOneAndOnly]

Here's the wikipedia (not that that's any authority) article:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_atomic_program

...and what a surprise. It's disputed.

It's probably worth reading the discussion page too:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Japanese_atomic_program

A lot of this Japan nuke theory seems to revolve around a book by a certain Robert K. Wilcox - Japan's Secret War

He doesn't seem to be a military historian or anything like that. And his other works seem a little goofy, so I somehow doubt his credentials. But I'm not going to judge a book I haven't read.
http://www.robertkwilcox.com/

[Nicholas]

Here's the wikipedia (not that that's any authority) article:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_atomic_program

...and what a surprise. It's disputed.

It's probably worth reading the discussion page too:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:J..._atomic_program

A lot of this Japan nuke theory seems to revolve around a book by a certain Robert K. Wilcox - Japan's Secret War

He doesn't seem to be a military historian or anything like that. And his other works seem a little goofy, so I somehow doubt his credentials. But I'm not going to judge a book I haven't read.
http://www.robertkwilcox.com/

I'd just like to note that I'm arguing in favor of the idea that they succeeded in developing a nuclear weapon, all I'm saying is it's not beyond possibility that they were farther than we give them credit for.

[TheOneAndOnly]

I'd just like to note that I'm arguing in favor of the idea that they succeeded in developing a nuclear weapon, all I'm saying is it's not beyond possibility that they were farther than we give them credit for.

That's okay. I wasn't arguing for any position really. I've only just heard of this theory today (or was it yesterday?) and I was just trawling the web for information on it. Most of the information seems to indicate that it is a fringe theory, not accepted by most mainstream historians.

[Ben Franklin]

One good book I read that explores this question is Kempetai by Richard Deacon. If true, the Russians quickly invaded Manchuria/North Korea after Japan's surrender specifically to haul off anything and everything related to Japan's nuclear experiments there. The hydropower plant gave Japan the energy needed to pursue the studies, but their scientists were behind the eight-ball compared to Germany (and obviously the U.S.)... Japan's "Oka" type bomber were experimentally being refit to carry an atomic payload, should Japan develop one in time. One estimate (in a perfect world) is that Japan could have had a prototype atomic bomb 6 months after Sept. 1945.

As for N. Korea, IMO, if they had atomic ability, they'd have used it by now.