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Interesting State Stuff

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  • Interesting State Stuff

    Clinton won 18 states, six of which were by less than a 10 pt lead. Of those four were less than five point wins.

    Trump won 28 states, nine of which were by less than a 10 pt lead. Of those seven were less than five point wins.

    To my mind - and with the caveat that there's a lot of digging to be done in the data - that probably translates to a LOT more states were in play than any pollsters believed. It MAY also spell bad news for the Democrats - they've been able to take large pop states for granted (it's part of why they favor looser immigration because larger pops generally favor them - as does larger turnout. A glance at the headlines suggests a larger turnout than expected, possibly rivaling '08 - if so, that IS bad news for the Dems as large turnout has favored them for decades.

    Lots of forces are in play - the Baby Boom is getting a lot older but not a lot less active and may finally be showing the conservative drift age historically brings. That alone endangers the Dem apple cart. The last eight years brought a LOT of sociological and political changes and on contentious issues where polling data is least reliable - and we probably are seeing some serious backlash. And we may be seeing a definitive party shift (not political party) at loooooong last. Young people vote more liberal - but are less likely to show up on election day - and the public perception of a clear likely winner may have staved off some of those votes (why bother when your guy is a shoo in - something older voters don't tend to do).


    From a poli sci POV, NOW the election is getting interesting!
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  • #2
    Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
    Clinton won 18 states, six of which were by less than a 10 pt lead. Of those four were less than five point wins.

    Trump won 28 states, nine of which were by less than a 10 pt lead. Of those seven were less than five point wins.

    To my mind - and with the caveat that there's a lot of digging to be done in the data - that probably translates to a LOT more states were in play than any pollsters believed. It MAY also spell bad news for the Democrats - they've been able to take large pop states for granted (it's part of why they favor looser immigration because larger pops generally favor them - as does larger turnout. A glance at the headlines suggests a larger turnout than expected, possibly rivaling '08 - if so, that IS bad news for the Dems as large turnout has favored them for decades.

    Lots of forces are in play - the Baby Boom is getting a lot older but not a lot less active and may finally be showing the conservative drift age historically brings. That alone endangers the Dem apple cart. The last eight years brought a LOT of sociological and political changes and on contentious issues where polling data is least reliable - and we probably are seeing some serious backlash. And we may be seeing a definitive party shift (not political party) at loooooong last. Young people vote more liberal - but are less likely to show up on election day - and the public perception of a clear likely winner may have staved off some of those votes (why bother when your guy is a shoo in - something older voters don't tend to do).


    From a poli sci POV, NOW the election is getting interesting!
    I'm just thinking that more and more people are believing that the Democrat party they used to know has been taken over by the extremists. I've been hearing the same thing I heard from my Dad some 20 years ago.... "I didn't leave the Democratic Party - it left me".
    The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
      I'm just thinking that more and more people are believing that the Democrat party they used to know has been taken over by the extremists. I've been hearing the same thing I heard from my Dad some 20 years ago.... "I didn't leave the Democratic Party - it left me".
      Funny, I hear the exact same thing from Dad when it comes to the Republican party. He used to vote straight GOP and now laughs at the Tea Party type ideology - he's come a long way.

      For the first time in his life, he didn't vote at all. Instead, we had some beers and listened to some AC/DC records.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Sea of red View Post
        Funny, I hear the exact same thing from Dad when it comes to the Republican party. He used to vote straight GOP and now laughs at the Tea Party type ideology - he's come a long way.
        Poor fella.... I'll pray for him.

        For the first time in his life, he didn't vote at all. Instead, we had some beers and listened to some AC/DC records.
        My Dad, just in the past few days, appears to have had a stroke or something, and doesn't even know what year it is. Glad you can have some quality time with your Dad, Sea. Enjoy it.
        The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
          Poor fella.... I'll pray for him.
          Thanks, but we've got each other.


          My Dad, just in the past few days, appears to have had a stroke or something, and doesn't even know what year it is. Glad you can have some quality time with your Dad, Sea. Enjoy it.
          Make him as comfortable as you can - it's what I'd do.

          Comment

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