Clinton won 18 states, six of which were by less than a 10 pt lead. Of those four were less than five point wins.
Trump won 28 states, nine of which were by less than a 10 pt lead. Of those seven were less than five point wins.
To my mind - and with the caveat that there's a lot of digging to be done in the data - that probably translates to a LOT more states were in play than any pollsters believed. It MAY also spell bad news for the Democrats - they've been able to take large pop states for granted (it's part of why they favor looser immigration because larger pops generally favor them - as does larger turnout. A glance at the headlines suggests a larger turnout than expected, possibly rivaling '08 - if so, that IS bad news for the Dems as large turnout has favored them for decades.
Lots of forces are in play - the Baby Boom is getting a lot older but not a lot less active and may finally be showing the conservative drift age historically brings. That alone endangers the Dem apple cart. The last eight years brought a LOT of sociological and political changes and on contentious issues where polling data is least reliable - and we probably are seeing some serious backlash. And we may be seeing a definitive party shift (not political party) at loooooong last. Young people vote more liberal - but are less likely to show up on election day - and the public perception of a clear likely winner may have staved off some of those votes (why bother when your guy is a shoo in - something older voters don't tend to do).
From a poli sci POV, NOW the election is getting interesting!
Trump won 28 states, nine of which were by less than a 10 pt lead. Of those seven were less than five point wins.
To my mind - and with the caveat that there's a lot of digging to be done in the data - that probably translates to a LOT more states were in play than any pollsters believed. It MAY also spell bad news for the Democrats - they've been able to take large pop states for granted (it's part of why they favor looser immigration because larger pops generally favor them - as does larger turnout. A glance at the headlines suggests a larger turnout than expected, possibly rivaling '08 - if so, that IS bad news for the Dems as large turnout has favored them for decades.
Lots of forces are in play - the Baby Boom is getting a lot older but not a lot less active and may finally be showing the conservative drift age historically brings. That alone endangers the Dem apple cart. The last eight years brought a LOT of sociological and political changes and on contentious issues where polling data is least reliable - and we probably are seeing some serious backlash. And we may be seeing a definitive party shift (not political party) at loooooong last. Young people vote more liberal - but are less likely to show up on election day - and the public perception of a clear likely winner may have staved off some of those votes (why bother when your guy is a shoo in - something older voters don't tend to do).
From a poli sci POV, NOW the election is getting interesting!
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