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Type: Posts; User: demi-conservative

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  1. It's clear that risk of death increases with...

    It's clear that risk of death increases with certain preexisting conditions. This means that fatality rates are not constant, they are going to be different for different countries, and could explain...
  2. I don't know about this specifically. In general,...

    I don't know about this specifically. In general, like I said, the doctors are getting better over time at educated guessing on how to treat the virus and not getting infected themselves, which means...
  3. Models cause society to change, which changes R0...

    Models cause society to change, which changes R0 and invalidates the model. So all the models need to be revised frequently. Since number of projected cases is an exponential function of R0, even...
  4. The original prediction seems to be based on the...

    The original prediction seems to be based on the UK doing nothing much. Now that the UK closed down pubs, colleges, etc, R0 changes and everything has to be revised.
  5. If it was the coronavirus last fall or winter,...

    If it was the coronavirus last fall or winter, then how much the Chinese covered up since late December didn't matter much. If the mild cases are so mistakable for flu, it would have spread to half...
  6. There have been plenty of anecdotes of atypical...

    There have been plenty of anecdotes of atypical flu in the winter.
  7. R0 and fatality rates are not biological...

    R0 and fatality rates are not biological constants but depend on how society responds, whether better treatment is found, and so on*. Every model that you see should come with twenty different...
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