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Type: Posts; User: Juvenal

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  1. Replies
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    You are totally the best, mossy. It's times...

    You are totally the best, mossy.

    It's times like these when I can almost forget that thing with the baby seals.

    And almost regret ever calling you the ancient of afternoons.

    Oh, and to...
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    Okay, yeah, whatever, but the real question is...

    Okay, yeah, whatever, but the real question is how does this guy have an open thread with guest status?

    Y'all are going to give Thirsty ideas.
  3. To see a steeper curve on an exponentially...

    To see a steeper curve on an exponentially increasingly graph, wait until tomorrow. What's needed here is a log-scale, where decreases in slope indicate decreases in R.
  4. Qft.

    Qft.
  5. My calculations show the US can get to 58.3...

    My calculations show the US can get to 58.3 percent by infecting everyone under 45.

    43670

    I'm pretty sure that's not an option, but it would minimize the body count.

    Or we can choose...
  6. A little thought reveals R is the product of R0...

    A little thought reveals R is the product of R0 and the susceptible ratio. The susceptible ratio is the complement of the population that's developed immunity. Herd immunity is achieved when R...
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    Well, he could tell you, but then he'd have to...

    Well, he could tell you, but then he'd have to steal your toilet paper.
  8. Any directives from the current administration to...

    Any directives from the current administration to end social distancing will be quickly forgotten when the body counts start rising. State governors can ignore them entirely. There's some concern...
  9. I've finally taken the time to examine the ICL...

    I've finally taken the time to examine the ICL report more carefully. Based on that report, yes, suppression will involve "shutdown" for the first few months to break the back of the curve. While...
  10. I should have been using R, not R0, which is the...

    I should have been using R, not R0, which is the initial value. But yes, the goal is to reduce R, and herd immunity will eventually play a role. But it's not projected to play a significant role if...
  11. Unmitigated, the US would see daily body counts...

    Unmitigated, the US would see daily body counts peaking above 50,000 toward the end of June, less than the UK, proportionately, but a bit later because we're more spread out.

    43667

    The good...
  12. Here are the figures which attracted the greatest...

    Here are the figures which attracted the greatest attention.


    In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting...
  13. 43663

    43663
  14. It doesn't mean shutdown.

    It doesn't mean shutdown.
  15. Ferguson can't update the ... oh never mind ...

    Ferguson can't update the ... oh never mind

    You can read Ferguson's statement in the o/p article. It's been updated.
  16. http://www.theologyweb.com/campus/showthread.php?2...

    http://www.theologyweb.com/campus/showthread.php?21372-Imperial-College-COVID-19-Response-Team-Report-March-16
  17. Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Report / March 16

    The primary source that informed public policy on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) was released on March 16 "On behalf of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team." They examined...
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    Kenny put a bag together for her, because no...

    Kenny put a bag together for her, because no visitors are allowed, and Libby gave me a call asking me to run it over. Or something like that. Dilaudid does not promote clear conversations. Not...
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    There are no human pregnancies that last 12 to 18...

    There are no human pregnancies that last 12 to 18 months.
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    The marine's wife is in the hospital with an open...

    The marine's wife is in the hospital with an open diabetic ulcer on her foot.
  21. This isn't helpful, either. Even if it were...

    This isn't helpful, either.

    Even if it were true.
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    Because those aren't needed for childbirth.

    Because those aren't needed for childbirth.
  23. This isn't helpful, either.

    This isn't helpful, either.
  24. This is not helpful, Jim.

    This is not helpful, Jim.
  25. Ferguson's statement is an update to the o/p...

    Ferguson's statement is an update to the o/p article.
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