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The End of Moore's Law

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  • The End of Moore's Law

    It looks like Moore's Law is coming to an end, after being followed for 50 years. Do you have any ideas about what will happen with computing technology in the coming decades? I wonder if change will be limited, in the same way that the airplanes of today are no faster than those of 50 years ago.
    http://www.nature.com/news/the-chips...-s-law-1.19338
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  • #2
    There may be some avenues via 3d circuits to allow faster processing.

    One of the problems of the chips is the density of transistors. But density alone is not the issue. The other issue is current leakage for transistors not being used. So there could be millions of transistors creating heat while sitting idle. There are potential transistor designs on the sidelines -- and something may replace common designs used today.

    In actuality though the biggest hindrance to speed (with a focus for now on the home computer) is the memory access speed. The DDR4 may represent that last of this line of memory standards without changing the microprocessor architecture. I think the alternative for memory was to build the memory onto the same IC as the CPU.

    We may even be running into a market-driven limitation in the sense that the main O/S provider, Microsoft, could be pushing a family of Intel microprocessors rather than other CPU technology with more potential -- though I'm not sure what alternatives are available.
    Last edited by mikewhitney; 03-18-2016, 06:18 PM.

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    • #3
      When I worked for Hewlett-Packard years ago, HP Labs was working on growing circuits on the molecular level. They apparently patented a process in 2002. I remember seeing a "chip" that was about 1/2 the size of my thumb nail and it had 7 miles of wire on it. I also remember them saying you could put all the memory and circuitry in a pc on a cube the size of a sugar cube.

      Here are some links to public releases.


      http://www.cnet.com/news/hp-patents-...ular-circuits/

      http://www.hpl.hp.com/news/2004/july_sept/quantum.html
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