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Bernie, the "No Jobs" President

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Starlight View Post
    The important principle to me is this: People have to be earning enough to live on.

    It's that simple. If you disagree with that, I think you're an immoral person.
    What's REALLY immoral is self-important stupid people continuing to make laws that have the opposite effect from what they intend, causing even more misery for poor people.
    The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
      What's REALLY immoral is self-important stupid people continuing to make laws that have the opposite effect from what they intend, causing even more misery for poor people.
      Besides, starving to death doesn't seem to be a problem in any first world country to start with, so his point is rather silly anyway.
      "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
      GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Starlight View Post
        In the past, gradual technology improvements eliminated the jobs of small amounts (~1%) of the total workforce in any given decade. Yes, there were people who were greatly concerned about this when it happened, and yes their concerns turned out to be unfounded in their historical periods.

        However, there are two big differences that our generation faces:
        1. The percentage of the workforce potentially made redundant in a short time is orders of magnitude higher than any time previously in history. Serious people are estimating robotics could eliminate 50% of jobs in a 20 year period. I've even seen estimates as high as 80%. That sort of amount is outside the range of historical datapoints. While we know that society can absorb a 1% shock to the system and carry on fine, we don't know what will happen if hit with a 50% or even 80% shock.
        As luddites always said: But this time it's different.

        I don't know where you are coming up with these numbers (for the past or for the future). I don't know if your number for the past is accurate. Frederic Bastiat wrote in 1850 that the popular cry echoed in the journals is "A curse on machines! Every year, their increasing power devotes millions of workmen to pauperism, by depriving them of work, and therefore of wages and bread. A curse on machines!" Past scares involved technological inventions that threatened to put vast numbers of people out of work all at once, such as labor-saving and automating devices in agriculture or textiles or manufacturing.

        It used to be the case that the vast majority of people worked in agriculture. It was feared that labor-saving devices in agriculture would thus put the vast majority of people out of work and they would starve to death. And you know what? It did put them out of work. I think only about 2% of the U.S. population today are farmers/ranchers. Does that mean the other 98% are starving? No it means they are freed up to work on things other than producing food. More food is produced than ever before, and a vast quantity of additional goods/services on top of it.

        The cotton gin, a labor-saving device, far from eliminating jobs, vastly increased the demand for cotton production and the demand for labor. The transition can take the form of new technology making people more productive, not necessarily a transition to a new profession. The demand for new technology that makes people more productive will always be at least as great as the demand for robots.

        Your worry here may just be that the rate of change (i.e. for the better) will be higher, and the bad result will be: ???
        You even say you "don't know".

        2. It's possible we're getting close to saturated demand for goods in the Western world, and thus for labor. eg I don't need or want two tables in my kitchen or two beds in my bedroom or two TVs in my lounge, I only want one of each. Once a person has enough of the stuff they want, they stop buying more. In the past, people being made redundant could transfer to other professions because there was always something people wanted, some additional product they wanted more of. However, a lot of people in the Western world are beginning to hit the point where they've got everything they want. So moving redundant people to new professions is going to become problematic because there's going to be increasingly less demand for further labor.

        Now, it's possible that the peak-demand of (2) is centuries away still (though I doubt it, because I already know a few people who are content with the level of goods they have). But at some point we will hit it.
        This is just ridiculous. Human wants are unlimited. Sure you may have only so many tables you want (and the best ones you can imagine), but then your resources are freed up for other things. And don't forget the advancing technology that we are talking about, producing new kinds of goods/services at an increasing pace.

        But even suppose you are correct--that we reach this fantasy point where everyone becomes wealthy beyond their wildest dreams. Therefore mass poverty?

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Joel View Post

          The cotton gin, a labor-saving device, far from eliminating jobs, vastly increased the demand for cotton production and the demand for labor.

          that's true.


          and Luddites is another product of Capitalism.

          Capitalism takes labor saving technology and turns it into benefit for a few, and suffering for the many.

          If the workers took over ownership , it would not mean a loss of jobs and food and shelter, all it would mean is easier work days for everybody.
          To say that crony capitalism is not true/free market capitalism, is like saying a grand slam is not true baseball, or like saying scoring a touchdown is not true American football ...Stefan Mykhaylo D

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          • #20
            Originally posted by jordanriver View Post
            Capitalism takes labor saving technology and turns it into benefit for a few, and suffering for the many.
            Not with free markets. Free competition tends to eliminate profits, and the benefits of the new technology go to the consumers (including the workers) in the form of a greater abundance of of goods/services and lower prices.

            The record of the past 200 years or so of capitalism is progressive reduction in poverty, around the world, with rising standards of living for the masses.

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by Joel View Post
              Not with free markets. Free competition tends to eliminate profits, and the benefits of the new technology go to the consumers (including the workers) in the form of a greater abundance of of goods/services and lower prices.

              The record of the past 200 years or so of capitalism is progressive reduction in poverty, around the world, with rising standards of living for the masses.
              in USA I think it was unions that brought the laborers a rise in the standard of living from the Dickinsonian Gilded Age
              To say that crony capitalism is not true/free market capitalism, is like saying a grand slam is not true baseball, or like saying scoring a touchdown is not true American football ...Stefan Mykhaylo D

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              • #22
                I do think that self-drive vehicles are going to have a huge impact of both the taxi industry and the truck driving industry.
                Be watchful, stand firm in the faith, act like men, be strong.
                1 Corinthians 16:13

                "...he [Doherty] is no historian and he is not even conversant with the historical discussions of the very matters he wants to pontificate on."
                -Ben Witherington III

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by jordanriver View Post
                  in USA I think it was unions that brought the laborers a rise in the standard of living from the Dickinsonian Gilded Age
                  Yeah, the unions served a purpose, then became corrupt and self-serving, just like 'collectivist leaders'.
                  The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                    Yeah, the unions served a purpose, then became corrupt and self-serving, just like 'collectivist leaders'.
                    MONEY has a way of doing that.
                    To say that crony capitalism is not true/free market capitalism, is like saying a grand slam is not true baseball, or like saying scoring a touchdown is not true American football ...Stefan Mykhaylo D

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by jordanriver View Post
                      MONEY has a way of doing that.
                      Hey - let's be clear about something... I like pestering you, but I would in no way (seriously) call your Christianity into question without solid reason. Even then, it's not really my place, in most cases. You seem to be a pretty good sport about things, so if it seems like I'm being too harsh, by all means let me know, OK?

                      And you're wrong about MONEY -- it's not money, but the LOVE of money, as the verse you linked clearly states.
                      The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                        Hey - let's be clear about something... I like pestering you, but I would in no way (seriously) call your Christianity into question without solid reason. Even then, it's not really my place, in most cases. You seem to be a pretty good sport about things, so if it seems like I'm being too harsh, by all means let me know, OK?

                        And you're wrong about MONEY -- it's not money, but the LOVE of money, as the verse you linked clearly states.
                        ok, if you want context:

                        1 Timothy 6:9-119 But they that will be rich fall into temptation and a snare, and into many foolish and hurtful lusts, which drown men in destruction and perdition.
                        10 For the love of money is the root of all evil: which while some coveted after, they have erred from the faith, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows.
                        11 But thou, O man of God, flee these things; and follow after righteousness, godliness, faith, love, patience, meekness.


                        good advice, don't you think, "flee these things"

                        evil caused by love of money

                        so what caused the love of money?

                        probably MONEY
                        To say that crony capitalism is not true/free market capitalism, is like saying a grand slam is not true baseball, or like saying scoring a touchdown is not true American football ...Stefan Mykhaylo D

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Joel,

                          The Cotton Gin isn't a good example of the way modern tech is problematic because it's a labor multiplier.

                          Robotics, kiosks, automated bits of software and the like are all labor replacements.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by jordanriver View Post
                            ok, if you want context:

                            1 Timothy 6:9-119 But they that will be rich fall into temptation and a snare, and into many foolish and hurtful lusts, which drown men in destruction and perdition.
                            10 For the love of money is the root of all evil: which while some coveted after, they have erred from the faith, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows.
                            11 But thou, O man of God, flee these things; and follow after righteousness, godliness, faith, love, patience, meekness.


                            good advice, don't you think, "flee these things"

                            evil caused by love of money

                            so what caused the love of money?

                            probably MONEY
                            Twisting scripture for your own good is not nice.

                            That's as dumb as saying guns cause murder, or spoons cause fat people or cars cause speeding.

                            Dumb dumb dumb.
                            The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                              Twisting scripture for your own good is not nice.

                              That's as dumb as saying guns cause murder, or spoons cause fat people or cars cause speeding.

                              Dumb dumb dumb.
                              And pencils cause spelling misteaks

                              I'm always still in trouble again

                              "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                              "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                              "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                                The important principle to me is this: People have to be earning enough to live on.

                                It's that simple. If you disagree with that, I think you're an immoral person.

                                So, we have to make sure the rules of our economy are set up in such a way that people can earn enough to live on. So, what does it mean in practice? Firstly it means anyone working hard - working a 40+ hour week - should be earning enough to live on. Therefore we need to ensure that the wages they are getting paid are enough to live on, and therefore we need to ensure there's a high enough minimum wage (~$15 hour, or something vaguely similar). Secondly, it means that anyone who no longer has a job over the next 20 years, due to technology rapidly replacing jobs and putting more and more people out of work, receives sufficient support to live their lives. It won't be their fault a machine took their job. It won't be their fault there's no more jobs available for them to apply for.
                                but you are not considering a few things.
                                1. What kind of living? How much does "enough to live on" buy? Does it mean you can afford basic housing and food and that's it? Or does it mean you can have a car, a 3 bedroom home, big screen tvs in every room, and a smartphone and tablet? and
                                2. Entry level jobs like McDonalds are not designed for "making a living" - they are designed for teenagers to make a few extra bucks while living at home and going to school. To get their feet wet in the job market. Not to make a career out of. If they want that, then they need to work up to manager instead of fry cook.
                                3. Most people in those minimum wage types of jobs are not working 40 hours a week, unless they are working several jobs.
                                4. Most full time jobs, 40 hours a week, even low paying ones, do actually pay more than minimum wage and enough to make a minimal living off of, and have benefits like medical.

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