California in Play for McCain?

[Jaltus]

http://www.time.com/time/politics/ar...s-politics-cnn

Evidently the State Supreme Court ruling on gay marriage might very well make California a hot spot for the upcoming election. The Republicans are looking to get an amendment to the state constitution to make gay marriage illegal, a law which had passed with 61% of the vote in 2000. This could very well get more conservatives to the polls. With Obama supporting unions (allegedly, I am not sure what he actually stands for in this case), voters may well come out against him for that.

I am not sure if Cal will really be in play, but this forces Obama to spend money and time in a place he should not have to. I think it makes the race for the White House much more interesting.

[Lightknight]

Cal hasn't always been opposed to republicans, so maybe. It also happens to have cities that are VERY liberal and high population ones too. But I live in Florida, so what do I know?

[Jaltus]

The issue usually is voter turnout in conservative districts. There are more conservative areas than non, it just happens that the big cities (other than San Diego and Sacramento) are all liberal.

[shadowmaster]

I live in Florida, so what do I know?

[Conductor42]

The issue usually is voter turnout in conservative districts. There are more conservative areas than non, it just happens that the big cities (other than San Diego and Sacramento) are all liberal.

I wouldn't consider Sacramento conservative.

[Ryokan]

I doubt its really in play, or that Obama will really fight for it. Look for the fight to stay around the Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, axis with Virginia and Florida as outliers.

[Bill the Cat]

California evangelicals will not turn out for McCain if he keeps turning down endorsements of every major evangelical pastor this side of heresy...

Seriously, he's not making many friends in the rod Parsley/John Hagee ministries for sure.

[bridgeforsale]

California evangelicals will not turn out for McCain if he keeps turning down endorsements of every major evangelical pastor this side of heresy...

Seriously, he's not making many friends in the rod Parsley/John Hagee ministries for sure.

I don't know about Parsley (he always seemed okay when I've watched him) but Hague ..... the guy seems too much like a bigot even if he isn't one (not to mention a little wacky from the mainstream Christian perspective ..... if there is such thing anymore). I think Hague's supporters will stick with McCain (I couldn't imagine them either staying home or voting for Obama).

[Ryokan]

California evangelicals will not turn out for McCain if he keeps turning down endorsements of every major evangelical pastor this side of heresy...

Seriously, he's not making many friends in the rod Parsley/John Hagee ministries for sure.

If they turn out, it will be for a gay marriage ammendment and to they will vote McCain only incidentally. But, frankly, I think the gay marriage fight is over, and the evangelicals are losing it.

[bridgeforsale]

If they turn out, it will be for a gay marriage ammendment and to they will vote McCain only incidentally. But, frankly, I think the gay marriage fight is over, and the evangelicals are losing it.

agreed, I don't see a gay marriage amendment on the horizon .... in any case 32 states would never ratify it. However, there is the Defense of Marriage Act, which is an important protection for states who might otherwise be forced to recognize a gay marriage performed by another state (under full faith and credit). I think this is enough to rile up the evangelical base. Moreover, a conservative Supreme Court would not recognize gay marriage as a fundamental right under due process (or invalidate state bans on the practice under equal protection).

I doubt republicans or democrats really want these issues decided by an immutable amendment (then they would actually have to discuss real issues .... go figure). Things like this don't typically become the focus of the amendment process until all substantial opposition to it evaporates (not gonna happen in the foreseeable future).


AW

[Ryokan]

agreed, I don't see a gay marriage amendment on the horizon .... in any case 32 states would never ratify it. However, there is the Defense of Marriage Act, which is an important protection for states who might otherwise be forced to recognize a gay marriage performed by another state (under full faith and credit). I think this is enough to rile up the evangelical base. Moreover, a conservative Supreme Court would not recognize gay marriage as a fundamental right under due process (or invalidate state bans on the practice under equal protection).

I doubt republicans or democrats really want these issues decided by an immutable amendment (then they would actually have to discuss real issues .... go figure). Things like this don't typically become the focus of the amendment process until all substantial opposition to it evaporates (not gonna happen in the foreseeable future).


AW

California's supreme court offered the out of calling everything a civil union conventional and gay marriage. I am guessing that is what happens. The Republicans, especially though, don't want to lose this drum to beat.

[shadowmaster]

yawn

[bridgeforsale]

California's supreme court offered the out of calling everything a civil union conventional and gay marriage. I am guessing that is what happens. The Republicans, especially though, don't want to lose this drum to beat.

You're right this does tend to be a stronger issue for Republicans (since most democrats also oppose gay marriage -- though a substantial number of democrats support the measure & only a small fraction of republicans support the idea of gay marriage so it's a safer bet for republicans).

I do think Americans are just getting sick of these hot button issues and feel manipulated by them (who can blame us?). If given a choice between Bob and Mike living together in marital bliss or the Arabians suddenly cutting off our oil supply and lunging us into an economic dark age ..... I think it's safe to say Americans would choose the former.

Who will lead us toward energy independence in a reasonable period of time? Who will divorce us from reliance on Sheiks and Sultans and that part of the world in general? Who can reform our entitlement programs, education system, health care industry, and ensure we remain a prosperous nation and retain all the freedoms that our founding fathers fought so hard and risked so much for? Who will lead us toward real harmony with each other? Who can lead the world toward respecting human rights and dignity, prosperity, and end all the hate and bloodshed? These are the paramount questions Americans are thinking about (much more than Bob and Mike anyways).



AW

[Amazing Rando]

McCain doesn't have a prayer in the election. All Obama has to do is conflate McCain with Bush (who is currently the most unpopular president in history) and it's a done deal.

[Ryokan]

McCain doesn't have a prayer in the election. All Obama has to do is conflate McCain with Bush (who is currently the most unpopular president in history) and it's a done deal.

I agree that had the primary battle ended in March, or if McCain wasn't already a national figure, Obama would have Bushed McCain into oblivion. At this point, and I have heard otherwise from any serious analysts, McCain has had time to solidify and define himself in the publics mind, and it is going to be a long, drug out battle that favors Obama but is no sure bet.