Sun is Cooling?

[Cow Poke]

I don't pretend to know a thing about this, so you guys can have at it....

Earth faces another ICE AGE within 15 YEARS as Russian scientists discover Sun 'cooling'

http://www.express.co.uk/news/scienc...solar-activity



All I ask is for civil discussion - no "you idiot", "no, YOU'RE the idiot" nonsense.

[Sea of red]

I haven't read any papers on this but I'm pretty skeptical. Solar activity no doubt influences the climate, but sunspot cycles are unlikely to have a dramatic effect now.

The Maunder minimum was a pretty unique event and while it certainly led the the Little Ice Age (LIA), there are more factors to climate than the just the sun. The Earths energy balance or 'albedo' is one of the factors in climate that just isn't explained enough. Albedo describes surfaces on the Earth that reflect radiative energy. Oceans have a very small albedo, while ice-sheets account for a very high albedo on the Earth - which is why losing them would heat the planet more. We are changing this effect by burning fossil fuels, removing not only natural albedo, but adding to constants that absorb radiation like Greenhouse Gases.



The lead author Helen Popovathat is just plain wrong - she appears to be a nuclear physicist. Climate is a complex physics, it's not down to just one thing or another. It's a series of factors taken into account: GHG's, orbital changes, albedo changes, environmental changes, etc. Sunspot cycles are not taken seriously as a factor like they used to be. In fact, sunspots and climate are going in different directions.



There have also been recent findings that even during low periods of solar activity, the Earth still retains excess energy.

http://www.livescience.com/18255-sol...e-warming.html

A recent, prolonged lull in the sun's activity did not prevent the Earth from absorbing more solar energy than it let escape back into space, a NASA analysis of the Earth's recent energy budget indicates.

The results confirm greenhouse gases produced by human activities are the most important driver of global climate change, according to the researchers.

They found that the Earth absorbed 0.58 watts of excess energy per square meter than escaped back into space during the study period from 2005 to 2010, a time when solar activity was low. By comparison, the planet receives 0.25 watts less energy per square meter during a solar minimum, than during a period of maximum activity in the sun's 11-year cycle.

[Starlight]

Good article here from last year about it. If the sun enters a solar minimum they think it will lower global temperatures by about 0.1 degrees on average. But it might lower temperatures in Europe and North America by 0.4-0.8 degrees. Since climate change is currently hovering at around 1.5 degrees of warming already and scientists are predicting bad things when that amount climbs over 2 degrees, the effects of the solar minimum will be merely a small rounding error compared to the much larger effect of human-caused climate change.

[Cow Poke]

I haven't read any papers on this but I'm pretty skeptical.

Thanks, Sea - don't have time to read all that now, but will definitely come back to it.

[Jedidiah]

The sun, over the long haul, will gradually produce more heat not less. Short term cooling patterns can slow down the rate at which the sun influences the warming of the planet, as Red mentioned. It will not have nearly enough effect to bring about a planetary cooling.

[Teallaura]

The sun, over the long haul, will gradually produce more heat not less. Short term cooling patterns can slow down the rate at which the sun influences the warming of the planet, as Red mentioned. It will not have nearly enough effect to bring about a planetary cooling.

Um, wouldn't that depend on duration? 'Short term' is a fairly wide range, after all.

[Jedidiah]

Um, wouldn't that depend on duration? 'Short term' is a fairly wide range, after all.

I think we are mostly talking about sun spot cycles which run around 11 years if I recall correctly. Pretty short term.

[Sparko]

Obviously the only way we can save the Earth is to burn all of the forests and build more gas-guzzling cars and trucks. Get to it!!! Global Warming is the only thing that can save us!!!

[ke7ejx]

I don't pretend to know a thing about this, so you guys can have at it....

Earth faces another ICE AGE within 15 YEARS as Russian scientists discover Sun 'cooling'

http://www.express.co.uk/news/scienc...solar-activity



All I ask is for civil discussion - no "you idiot", "no, YOU'RE the idiot" nonsense.

We actually recently covered this in my astronomy class. Like all stars, the Sun is cooling, mind you, it's cooling very slowly. And by slowly, I mean another billion years slowly.

[Cow Poke]

We actually recently covered this in my astronomy class. Like all stars, the Sun is cooling, mind you, it's cooling very slowly. And by slowly, I mean another billion years slowly.

Then I'll watch it from Heaven.

[Roy]

I don't pretend to know a thing about this, so you guys can have at it....

Earth faces another ICE AGE within 15 YEARS as Russian scientists discover Sun 'cooling'

http://www.express.co.uk/news/scienc...solar-activity

The Express frequently publishes false fearmongering 'stories' about imminent disastrous weather and climate changes. This appears to be one of them.

Is there any reason to give it any credence?

[Cow Poke]

The Express frequently publishes false fearmongering 'stories' about imminent disastrous weather and climate changes. This appears to be one of them.

Is there any reason to give it any credence?

I just asked, Roy. Remember that part in the OP where I said "I don't pretend to know a thing about this, so you guys can have at it...."?

I don't think you've seen me push back at all.

[Roy]

I just asked, Roy. Remember that part in the OP where I said "I don't pretend to know a thing about this, so you guys can have at it...."?

I don't think you've seen me push back at all.

I meant no criticism of you - while the Express's habit of propagating ludicrous weather forecasts is well known this side of the Atlantic, I wouldn't expect it to be common knowledge in your vicinity. Unless there is a verifying independent article, the one you cited can be ignored.

But an ice age in 15 years is so contrary to both recent history and common sense, I'd have thought you'd have been at least sceptical.

""

[Cow Poke]

I meant no criticism of you - while the Express's habit of propagating ludicrous weather forecasts is well known this side of the Atlantic, I wouldn't expect it to be common knowledge in your vicinity. Unless there is a verifying independent article, the one you cited can be ignored.

But an ice age in 15 years is so contrary to both recent history and common sense, I'd have thought you'd have been at least sceptical.

Yes, sir - skeptical, so I asked.

""

I appreciate the info, and, as per usual, your civility.

I suppose it caught my attention because I remember the scare tactics when I was a kid -- "the coming ice age" and "overpopulation", along with the Cuban Missile Crisis and "duck and cover" drills. It's a wonder I turned out as normal as I did*!




*quiet, Rogue!

[Sparko]

We actually recently covered this in my astronomy class. Like all stars, the Sun is cooling, mind you, it's cooling very slowly. And by slowly, I mean another billion years slowly.

I just watched a show on tv where they said the opposite. That the habitable zone of the sun is expanding beyond Earth towards Mars and within 1 billion years the Earth will be like venus and have a surface temperature of 1000F.
And then it will expand into a red dwarf and destroy the earth.

I think I will invest in sun screen and igloos and cover both bases.