Oil Problems comin' round the mountain

[grmorton]

Glenn,
How closely would Natural Gas mirror your Oil story, if it all.
I know people use "Oil and Gas" as a topic, but I also understand there's not necessarily a direct association.
Comments?

There have been some breakthroughs in extracting natural gas from shale, but it requires $8/mcf in order to be economic. Every time gas reaches that price now, LNG from other countries flood the markets and the price of gas goes down. We are experiencing such a downturn now.

Natural gas will follow oil eventually but there is a whole lot more natural gas than there is oil. I think it was in this thread that I did a calculation to see if we could fuel our cars with natural gas. We can't.

BTW, the Dems in congress are trying to change the Oil and Gas tax law where one can not expense intangible drilling costs. I know, everyone's eyes just glazed over. Intangible drilling costs are things like labor. If the Dems do that, it will not hurt the big oil companies all that much but it will hurt the mom and pop oil companies who drill most of the small fields and represent a huge quantity of oil. I have several friends who run their own tiny oil companies. The tax will inhibit their ability to drill and supply you with oil, and it will make us more dependent upon those oh so friendly arabic countries.

Jack Smith, "Oil industry gears for battle with Obama over tax changes"Fort Worth Star-Telegram, May 11, 2009

FORT WORTH, TEXAS: The U.S. oil and gas industry, already reeling from weak energy demand and a deep plunge in petroleum prices since last summer, now has a new problem to ponder: the Obama administration's proposed rescission of tax breaks that encourage domestic drilling.

President Barack Obama has called the tax breaks -- totaling tens of billions of dollars over 10 years -- "unjustifiable loopholes" in the tax code that in most cases other companies do not receive."

© source where applicable

So the Dems will force more blue collar employees into unemployment, drillers, roughnecks, roustabouts, truckers, welders etc. The jobs that will be lost are blue collar but they don't care about them any more than they cared about the hotel workers in Las Vegas when King Obama outlawed corporate meetings there for TARP recipients.

So, here is what will happen. Drilling will drop even further until the oil and gas price rises to the point where drillers can make back that money they lose to taxes. Thus, the oil company becomes the tax collector and when that happens, the Dems will tell everyone how evil the oil companies are to charge so much.

In Obama world, you won't be allowed to drive if you are poor. Oil will cost too much. And wait till inflation hits.

[Cow Poke]

I'm beginning to think that this current administration's biggest problem is that they have ZERO CONCEPT of the law of unintended consequences.

But if you and I can see them... are they just not WANTING to see them? (and, by "they", i mean the political decision makers)

[Augustine2004]

I'm beginning to think that this current administration's biggest problem is that they have ZERO CONCEPT of the law of unintended consequences.

But if you and I can see them... are they just not WANTING to see them? (and, by "they", i mean the political decision makers)

No, the biggest problem is that the ruling class is ripping the rest of us off. One way is to create a problem then present the government as the savior or the solution. Of course the solution is going to benefit the ruling class, though it may not be obvious to the average joe.

[grmorton]

I'm beginning to think that this current administration's biggest problem is that they have ZERO CONCEPT of the law of unintended consequences.

But if you and I can see them... are they just not WANTING to see them? (and, by "they", i mean the political decision makers)

Partisanship is when a huge Morton's demon sits on your shoulder and you simply can't see anything that is outside of your preferred view. One reads and listens to only those with whom one agrees. That was what I used to do when I was a YEC, and it is what political partisans of all stripes do, Repubs and Dems.

Yesterday Hugh Hewitt was interviewing Lawrence ODonnell of MSNBC. Hewitt asked him if he had read any books on terrorism (this is a political analyst for MSNBC. The idiot hadn't. Hadn't read anything on Iran. He stated things for which he had no ready back up data. But he did beleive he was right on everything even though he hadn't read anything that might disagree with his position.

The members of the administration read only those things which they agree with and therefore, that becomes their world. It is why they make assumptions about what everyone beleives that are so wrong.

[Cow Poke]

Partisanship is when a huge Morton's demon sits on your shoulder and you simply can't see anything that is outside of your preferred view. One reads and listens to only those with whom one agrees. That was what I used to do when I was a YEC, and it is what political partisans of all stripes do, Repubs and Dems.

Yesterday Hugh Hewitt was interviewing Lawrence ODonnell of MSNBC. Hewitt asked him if he had read any books on terrorism (this is a political analyst for MSNBC. The idiot hadn't. Hadn't read anything on Iran. He stated things for which he had no ready back up data. But he did beleive he was right on everything even though he hadn't read anything that might disagree with his position.

The members of the administration read only those things which they agree with and therefore, that becomes their world. It is why they make assumptions about what everyone beleives that are so wrong.

First, Glenn, i actually DID read your "Morton's Demon" article.
Very well written and reasoned.
I might disagree with you on the YEC thing.
HOWEVER, I fully and willfully divulge that I have not really looked at the facts or arguments or data.
I don't pretend to be an expert in this area.
I can see why this is important to you as a scientist.
It is interesting for me to read, but quite honestly, it does not change the way i minister to hurting people.
I'm sure you understand.

I can identify with your frustration on, perhaps, a totally different plane.
Sometimes, when discussing things with fellow twebbers, I think maybe i live on a totally different planet.
From years of experience living the Christian life, and making mistakes, and seeing some things that just flat "don't work", I find myself offering advice that i have found tried and true, only to be forcefully contradicted by somebody who "read a book" or cites the "Church fathers" or tells me i have a nebulous existence or some such silly thing.

I can sense that kind of frustration in you when you speak from a "practical experience" standpoint rather than "strictly theoretical".
Not really sure what I'm trying to say, but.. keep up the good work!

[grmorton]

First, Glenn, i actually DID read your "Morton's Demon" article.
Very well written and reasoned.
I might disagree with you on the YEC thing.
HOWEVER, I fully and willfully divulge that I have not really looked at the facts or arguments or data.

Pearls to you for this admission. Far too few Christians will acknowledge that they actually haven't looked at geology and the geological data. the difference between what YEC leaders taught me and what exists in geology was so great that it nearly drove me to atheism.

I don't pretend to be an expert in this area.
I can see why this is important to you as a scientist.
It is interesting for me to read, but quite honestly, it does not change the way i minister to hurting people.
I'm sure you understand.

No area can be the area God has called everyone to. The world doesn't work that way. I just wish there were more theologically conservative preachers who were more accepting of me. I am theologically conservative and have had several preachers take a dim view of me when they found out I was a theistic evolutionist.

I can identify with your frustration on, perhaps, a totally different plane.
Sometimes, when discussing things with fellow twebbers, I think maybe i live on a totally different planet.
From years of experience living the Christian life, and making mistakes, and seeing some things that just flat "don't work", I find myself offering advice that i have found tried and true, only to be forcefully contradicted by somebody who "read a book" or cites the "Church fathers" or tells me i have a nebulous existence or some such silly thing.

Or people who merely spout an opinion, not even from a book.

I can sense that kind of frustration in you when you speak from a "practical experience" standpoint rather than "strictly theoretical".
Not really sure what I'm trying to say, but.. keep up the good work!

Thanks for the encouragement. There is so little of it actually.

[Jorge]

Far too few Christians will acknowledge that they actually haven't looked at geology and the
geological data. the difference between what YEC leaders taught me and what exists in
geology was so great that it nearly drove me to atheism.

No area can be the area God has called everyone to. The world doesn't work that way. I just
wish there were more theologically conservative preachers who were more accepting of me.
I am theologically conservative and have had several preachers take a dim view of me when
they found out I was a theistic evolutionist.

Or people who merely spout an opinion, not even from a book.

Thanks for the encouragement. There is so little of it actually.

************************************************************************************************

You can post stuff like the above and get away with it if people like myself don't see it.
But I did see it and so I'll repeat the standard answer :

I'm sorry, but what you accuse these people of just doesn't have a ring of truth.

If (IF!) they have lied to you or to anyone else then shame on them and they'll
be answering to God for their deception. That point being clear, I find it hard
to believe that they did lie to you or that they "do not care".

My guess for you being ignored by certain YECs is that after decades of
experience they have learned to recognize fanatical anti-YEC bias and know
full well that it is essentially invincible. That's just a guess. I happen to know
that your name is generally known within the YEC community and that the
general consensus is that you rabidly refuse to listen and learn. I agree.
Everything that I've read of yours (your site and here) indicates without a
shadow of a doubt that you never did understand the Biblical Creationist
position. Worse yet is that you have embarked on a personal anti-YEC
jihad and it appears that nothing short of Christ Himself can even hope
to pull you out of it. I've mentioned this to you between 11-16 (?) times.

Jorge

[Augustine2004]

************************************************************************************************

You can post stuff like the above and get away with it if people like myself don't see it.
But I did see it and so I'll repeat the standard answer :

I'm sorry, but what you accuse these people of just doesn't have a ring of truth.

If (IF!) they have lied to you or to anyone else then shame on them and they'll
be answering to God for their deception. That point being clear, I find it hard
to believe that they did lie to you or that they "do not care".

My guess for you being ignored by certain YECs is that after decades of
experience they have learned to recognize fanatical anti-YEC bias and know
full well that it is essentially invincible. That's just a guess. I happen to know
that your name is generally known within the YEC community and that the
general consensus is that you rabidly refuse to listen and learn. I agree.
Everything that I've read of yours (your site and here) indicates without a
shadow of a doubt that you never did understand the Biblical Creationist
position. Worse yet is that you have embarked on a personal anti-YEC
jihad and it appears that nothing short of Christ Himself can even hope
to pull you out of it. I've mentioned this to you between 11-16 (?) times.

Jorge

I wanted to respond, but this is not the thread for it. I did some searching of TWeb threads and found this

http://www.theologyweb.com/campus/sh...al+creationism

In a few minutes, my response will be there.

[grmorton]

I thought I would comment on the fact that oil passed $68/bbl today. This is not being driven by supply and demand. It is being driven by the falling of the dollar. I expect that supply and demand won't be a factor until next year. Americans are still driving less and the demand for oil around the world is still down. Oil, however is going up because everyone thinks the dollar is toast in the medium term because of all the spending our government (which represents us even in our over spending) is doing.

Manufacturing indices grew (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-...t-200961107100) but that index is at 42 and anything below 50 is a contraction, yet because we are not contracting as fast as we used to, we are all happy, yippee, the market goes up.

Today I saw the irrationality of the market. GM, everyone knew was going to file for bankruptcy, yet my broker told me that 250 million shares had traded hands and it was up, prior to the filing--what idiots. Also the Wall Street Journal reported that South Korea's exports plummeted 28% down from the 18% in March, and it reported that oil demand is still down. But everyone, including me is happy because the stock market went up and we all made money.

I also saw that Taleb, the guy who wrote the book Black Swan and who bet against the market for the past couple of years, making money by the bucket load is now placing heavy bets that inflation is about to hit badly. He is going into commodities by the bucket load.

For my part, I am in land and oil and other commodities. I will do well in the coming hyper inflation. Those not in commodities will not do well.

BTW, I saw that income tax revenues plummeted 34% compared with last year. (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,522781,00.html). Federal spending is up, revenue is way down, much higher taxes are on the way, meaning that there will be fewer jobs for one and all.

These are not the policies that will help most people. These are the policies that will bring ruin upon us all as evidenced by the fact that the world is selling dollars now.

[Augustine2004]

Taleb is accused of misleading language. GQ quoted him as saying that he made $20 billion for his clients. He later said in a reply that it might be the 'face value' of the positions. Whatever does that mean?

[grmorton]

Thought people out to see this

Goldman Raises Year-End Crude Forecast by 31% to $85 (Update3)


By Alexander Kwiatkowski and Stephen Voss

June 4 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its forecast for U.S. benchmark oil by 31 percent to $85 a barrel for the end of 2009 and predicted further gains next year as demand recovers and supplies shrink.

“As the financial crisis eases, an energy shortage lies ahead,” Goldman analysts Jeffrey Currie in London and David Greely in New York said in a report e-mailed today. The bank set a 12-month price target of $90 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate crude, up from $70, and introduced a forecast of $95 for the end of 2010.
Source

© source where applicable

[Augustine2004]

This was posted more than a year ago. Geothermal energy in Iceland and the USA http://www.agorafinancial.com/afrude...ot-and-steamy/ Iceland, despite its debt problems, is one of the most affluent countries now, largeley because of its geothermal energy development.

Has much new happened since then in the geothermal arena?

[grmorton]

This was posted more than a year ago. Geothermal energy in Iceland and the USA http://www.agorafinancial.com/afrude...ot-and-steamy/ Iceland, despite its debt problems, is one of the most affluent countries now, largeley because of its geothermal energy development.

Has much new happened since then in the geothermal arena?

Not much. This week's New Scientist tells of a hot dry geothermal project in Switzerland had to shut down because it was causing 3.5 magnitude earthquakes. They are trying this in the UK. There are so few places where one can find super hot rocks within 4 km from the surface that frankly, you can just about ignore geothermal wrt saving our economy.

[Augustine2004]

you can just about ignore geothermal wrt saving our economy.

So, Iceland's pretty much the geothermal place in the world.

[grmorton]

So, Iceland's pretty much the geothermal place in the world.

There are a few areas like Hawaii and some areas of Yellowstone and California that can benefit, but not to the extent people would like.