40 days and nights without sun

[grmorton]

spots.

Yes siree, it has been 40 days and nights without a single official sunspot. I thought it was time to do a cake.

We are now 3 years past when the sunspots were supposed to start up again. This from NASA:

Actually, solar minimum, the lowest point of the sun's 11-year activity cycle, isn't due until 2006, but forecasters expected 2005, the eve of solar minimum, to be a quiet year on the sun.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2...inexplodes.htm

In March 2006 Nasa said:

For almost the entire month of February 2006 the sun was utterly blank. If Galileo had looked at the sun on his 442nd birthday, he would have been disappointed—no sunspots, no spin, no discovery.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2...larminimum.htm

From another Nasa site. The models say!

March 10, 2006: It's official: Solar minimum has arrived. Sunspots have all but vanished. Solar flares are nonexistent. The sun is utterly quiet.
Like the quiet before a storm.
This week researchers announced that a storm is coming--the most intense solar maximum in fifty years. The prediction comes from a team led by Mausumi Dikpati of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). "The next sunspot cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the previous one," she says. If correct, the years ahead could produce a burst of solar activity second only to the historic Solar Max of 1958
Solar Storm Warning


03.10.2006
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2...ormwarning.htm

Of course they were all wrong.

But even in Dec 2006 they didn't know they were wrong

Dec. 21, 2006: Evidence is mounting: the next solar cycle is going to be a big one.

Solar cycle 24, due to peak in 2010 or 2011 "looks like its going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center. He and colleague Robert Wilson presented this conclusion last week at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco.

. . .

"It all hangs together," says Hathaway. Stay tuned for solar activity



http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2...ec_cycle24.htm

Yes, it all hung together and was so wrong. The sun, like the climate, is so nonlinear.


In March 2007 NOAA's solar cycle prediction committee said

The next 11-year cycle of solar storms will most likely start next March and peak in late 2011 or mid-2012 – up to a year later than expected – according to a forecast issued today by NOAA’s Space Environment Center in coordination with an international panel of solar experts.
http://web.archive.org/web/200710060...ssRelease.html

In Dec 2007 Nasa wrote:

The big question now is, when will the next solar cycle begin?


Sign up for EXPRESS SCIENCE NEWS delivery

It could be starting now.

"New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot," explains Hathaway. "Reversed polarity " means a sunspot with opposite magnetic polarity compared to sunspots from the previous solar cycle. "High-latitude" refers to the sun's grid of latitude and longitude. Old cycle spots congregate near the sun's equator. New cycle spots appear higher, around 25 or 30 degrees latitude.

The region that appeared on Dec. 11th fits both these criteria. It is high latitude (24 degrees N) and magnetically reversed. Just one problem: There is no sunspot. So far the region is just a bright knot of magnetic fields. If, however, these fields coalesce into a dark sunspot, scientists are ready to announce that Solar Cycle 24 has officially begun.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2...excitement.htm

With bated breath we watched as nothing happened.


IN May 2008 a powerpoint presentation at a conference related the prediction of the solar cycle 24 . Slide 14 of http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/...secker2008.ppt says

Solar Minimum will be in March, 2008
Re-affirmed by panel in March, 2008
Cycle 24 will be small
Ri = 90
August, 2012
or
Cycle 24 will be large
Ri = 140
October, 2011

The panel is still split

slide 14 http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/...secker2008.ppt

Then in May 2009, NOAA's prediction panel wrote:

May 8, 2009 -- Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Update The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has reached a consensus decision on the prediction of the next solar cycle (Cycle 24). First, the panel has agreed that solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. This still qualifies as a prediction since the smoothed sunspot number is only valid through September, 2008. The panel has decided that the next solar cycle will be below average in intensity, with a maximum sunspot number of 90. Given the predicted date of solar minimum and the predicted maximum intensity, solar maximum is now expected to occur in May, 2013. Note, this is a consensus opinion, not a unanimous decision. A supermajority of the panel did agree to this prediction.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/index.html

But, in March and April, we had a 44 day stretch without sunspots according to Marshall Space Flight center, and now in August we have had a stretch of 40 days--so far. Solar minimum may not have been Dec 2008. since we have fewer sunspots this year so far than we had in 2008 it is hard not to call this year the minimum--so far. 80% of the days this year have been spotless.

One should know how rare a 40 day stretch of spotless days is: There are only 15 longer periods of spotless days. If we go another 10 days without spots this stretch of spotless days will be the 4th longest in history. Who knows if it will continue, but one thing is certain, the sun is not behaving normally.

And this should be a warning to those AGW advocates who think that computer models of the climate can tell us what will happen to the climate. Computer models of the sun said we would have a big sunspot cycle starting in 2007.

Models are just models, not reality.

[grmorton]

Well, It is now 50 days since we last saw a sunspot. Time for another cake. Since my usual spot, Mt. Wilson was down or cloud covered, I looked at this place.

Updated 2009 Aug 29 2201 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2009

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk was spotless.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html

This is now the 4th longest spotless stretch in history. That makes it a world class event--something not to ignore. For 200 years the sun has beaten to its 11 year cycle. Now it seems to have stopped. The magnetism of the sunspots has declined to the point that it is hard for sunspots to form.

That article Bill the Cat pointed us to shows that there are weather effects for the loss of solar irradiance. The Maunder Minimum and the Dalton Minimum were such times and the earth's temperature fell dramatically.

And for the second week in a row, I had north winds at my ranch in August. Last night a cold front blew through my ranch, dropping some rain and then came on down to Houston, dropping some rain east of my Houston residence. Thankfully I had rain at the ranch 3 times this week and that probably saved the grapes. Tomorrow grape jelly.

[Cow Poke]

Well, It is now 50 days since we last saw a sunspot.

Thanks for the update... I'll keep an eye on this, as this interests me.

[Michelle]

Thanks for the update... I'll keep an eye on this, as this interests me.

Same here.


By the way, there's a forest fire heading toward Mt. Wilson and the observatory has been evacuated.

[Vigilante]

So that being said, does this mean the sun is "building up" energy so that when the spots appear again they will be greater in force or magnitude or whatever? When the sun came alive after those previous stretches, what happened then?

[CommanderVimes]

Now would be the time to send a man to mars. While the sun is 'sleeping'.

[Jorge]

spots.

Yes siree, it has been 40 days and nights without a single official sunspot. I thought it was time to do a cake.

We are now 3 years past when the sunspots were supposed to start up again. This from NASA:

.
.
.

With bated breath we watched as nothing happened.

.
.
.

Who knows if it will continue, but one thing is certain, the sun is not behaving normally.
[Jorge comment : hmmm ... could this be one of the 'signs in the heavens' to look for?]


Models are just models, not reality.
[Jorge comment : Goodness, that sounds an awful lot like Jorge! ]

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These people (NOAA's Solar Cycle Prediction Committee) sound exactly like proponents
of the ToE. Every time they make a 'prediction' and things don't turn out the way that they
expected they merely revise their 'predictions' and tell the world "how it's now going to be".
"Trust us, we have PhDs in science and we know what we're talking about."
Remember fossils and the introduction of Punctuated Equilibrium? Same difference.
This entire thing is like watching a Three Stooges skit. The truly hilarious thing is that
people actually buy this garbage as "science". A gypsy with a crystal ball could do no worse.

Jorge

[Jorge]

So that being said, does this mean the sun is "building up" energy so that when the spots
appear again they will be greater in force or magnitude or whatever? When the sun came alive
after those previous stretches, what happened then?

*************************************************************************************

If anyone actually knew how the Sun worked then maybe they could answer your question.
The fact of the matter is that they haven't a c-l-u-e. For example, the Sun may continue
'dormant' like this for the next 200 years or, tomorrow, the Sun may begin a one-year
period of massive sun spots and flares that will greatly disrupt our society as we know it.
Nobody knows, as the historical sequence that grmorton presented plainly illustrates.
In the meantime, some of these 'brilliant' people say this, others say that. Something is
bound to happen and, when it does, the chap that predicted (read, 'guessed'!) correctly
will probably receive some prestigious prize in 'science' and become another demigod
in their Scientism Temple.

Whew! Okay, your last question is a good one but there may not be enough data to
answer it PLUS the fact that how the Sun came out of those periods in the past does
not necessarily tell us how it's going to come out in the present. In all likelihood this
is a nonlinear phenomena and all we have are guesses as to what nonlinear function
is operating here. I wouldn't place any trust in their predictions guesses if I were you.

Jorge

[Jorge]

By the way, there's a forest fire heading toward Mt. Wilson and the observatory has been evacuated.

*****************************************************************

Could this be a sign of what the Sun is fixing to do?

Jorge

[Cow Poke]

*****************************************************************

Could this be a sign of what the Sun is fixing to do?

Jorge

It was informational, Jorge, not prophetic. Sheeeeesh.

[grmorton]

Same here.


By the way, there's a forest fire heading toward Mt. Wilson and the observatory has been evacuated.

That is why I haven't been able to raise them to see what it is that they see. That would be a huge shame if the fire damaged that place.

[Jorge]

It was informational, Jorge, not prophetic. Sheeeeesh.

*************************************************************************************

It was jovial sarcasm, Country Preacher, not prophesy. Good grief!

Jorge

[Sparko]

Republicans are stealing our sunspots in order to discredit global warming.

[Michelle]

*************************************************************************************

It was jovial sarcasm, Country Preacher, not prophesy. Good grief!

Jorge

And what, pray tell, did I say that was deserving of jovial sarcasm?

[grmorton]

Republicans are stealing our sunspots in order to discredit global warming.

Well they forgot to steal one today. The streak will probably end at 51.