AI replacing white collar workers. Not SF but a current reality!

[Sparko]

I forget where - Japan? Saw on the tech news a while back that some fast-food joint had replaced their servers with robots. Don't know if they are true bots or just semis with a remote control capability = human intervention for trouble shooting.

Here in Oz they are trialing driverless buses. The big ironore transports (front end loaders & trucks) up in the Pilbera that have been in use for a few years are driverless, they are monitored from Perth - a couple of thousand miles away.

I can't think of an occupation that hasn't/won't replace people with AI. I speculate industry will only need 1 human monitor the AI process where once they had 10 or more people performing a task, so that leaves 9+ people unemployed and probably unemployable for each automated task when you extrapolate the numbers across an industry...

I'm not scared of automation, then again I'm fascinated by gadgets and how they work...

Just now I was mentally comparing effort needed in performing the household duties of my grand mother, my mother and my wife and how technology delivered more and more free time for the stay at home mum...

You are wrong. Think how many people it takes to create, design, program, manufacture those buses, and the people who design the machines that they use to build those buses. and so on. It is an entire NEW industry with a lot more jobs. Low skill jobs are being replaced by high skill jobs that pay even more. This has going on since the invention of the cotton gin. Nothing has changed. Pure paranoia and ludditism.

[Mountain Man]

I forget where - Japan? Saw on the tech news a while back that some fast-food joint had replaced their servers with robots. Don't know if they are true bots or just semis with a remote control capability = human intervention for trouble shooting.

From what I understand, it's not like they have C3PO waiting tables. Rather, you order your food from a computer terminal, the automated assembly process in the back prepares your order, and then it's delivered to the customer via a conveyor belt. So it's robots in the practical, not fantastical, sense.

[Sparko]

From what I understand, it's not like they have C3PO waiting tables. Rather, you order your food from a computer terminal, the automated assembly process in the back prepares your order, and then it's delivered to the customer via a conveyor belt. So it's robots in the practical, not fantastical, sense.

Japan is always into weird things that usually never catch on anywhere else. Like their strange capsule hotels where they sleep stacked like cord wood. I don't think they will replace hotels anytime soon.

capsule-hotel-3.jpg

[Mountain Man]

Japan is always into weird things that usually never catch on anywhere else. Like their strange capsule hotels where they sleep stacked like cord wood. I don't think they will replace hotels anytime soon.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]20434[/ATTACH]

Things like that have to do with the fact that Japan is a small landmass occupied by a lot of people. They simply don't have the space to put up traditional hotels.

[Sparko]

Things like that have to do with the fact that Japan is a small landmass occupied by a lot of people. They simply don't have the space to put up traditional hotels.

MOre than that. They actually LIKE things like that. They consider it cool and sci-fi. It's a nation of nerds. But even there, stuff like robot controlled restaurants are a novelty that soon wears off and dies out.

[elam]

You are wrong. Think how many people it takes to create, design, program, manufacture those buses, and the people who design the machines that they use to build those buses. and so on. It is an entire NEW industry with a lot more jobs. Low skill jobs are being replaced by high skill jobs that pay even more. This has going on since the invention of the cotton gin. Nothing has changed. Pure paranoia and ludditism.

Think of how many highly educated and skilled people there are now in the world - the USA & Oz have lost most of the innovation, design & build functions to Japan, South Korea, China & India, and those countries are now feeling threatened by advances in third world countries.

Think about as little as 20 years ago we had skilled designers & graphic artists building websites using notepad. These have been replaced by automation tools that any 10 year old can operate. We've hit the point where standardisation has over-taken all precedents.

In IT, for over 23 years I relearned my job ever year - my occuoation required me to be up-to-date with the latest languages, tools & methods. In that period of time I directly observed the decrease in numbers of IT people required to operate & maintain the systems of major banks & insurance companies. So I'm reflecting on personal experience not some pipe dream.

Sure, there are a heap of occupations that might not be automated any time soon, but with the development of robotics who knows - they now have robots that have the sensation of touch (they've had robots that can smell and taste for years).

Here in Oz some farms are so technologically advanced that sensors determine (and caused to be deliver) the water & fertilizer needs of plants. There is even an experimental farm that takes it one step further - the system determines the optimum time to harvest. The projection is that in the future, humans could be eliminated from the farming landscape completely (I figure that we'll still need a human to monitor whether the system is working - but in the future one person might monitor millions of acres).

I'm guessing that in the future most people won't be involved in production directly. They'll occupy themselves with the non-contributary arts, others might occupy themselves with cottage industry crafts. I project the biggest problem will be boredom...

[Sparko]

Think of how many highly educated and skilled people there are now in the world - the USA & Oz have lost most of the innovation, design & build functions to Japan, South Korea, China & India, and those countries are now feeling threatened by advances in third world countries.

Think about as little as 20 years ago we had skilled designers & graphic artists building websites using notepad. These have been replaced by automation tools that any 10 year old can operate. We've hit the point where standardisation has over-taken all precedents.

Just because the tools got easier doesn't mean that skilled designers and artists are not needed. These "easy" tools basically create cookie cutter web sites that all look alike and have only basic function, and are as ugly as hell unless the person has some artistry skills.

In IT, for over 23 years I relearned my job ever year - my occuoation required me to be up-to-date with the latest languages, tools & methods. In that period of time I directly observed the decrease in numbers of IT people required to operate & maintain the systems of major banks & insurance companies. So I'm reflecting on personal experience not some pipe dream.

yeah, I have been in electronics and IT since before there were personal computers. I have seen only growth in the need for IT people. As far as banks and insurance companies, automation just makes their jobs easier so they can handle more money, more people, more contracts. Sure instead of needing 10 researchers they can now use the AI to do the searches, but they still need to control the AI. It is only a tool, not a person. You can't just sit back and expect the AI to be an employee. Hey Siri, save me some money! Get rid of the deadbeats for me! That won't work. The operator has to tell the AI "Search for all contracts where the client has not paid their premiums more than 4 months in a row" and then make various judgments and then use that to make the decision. Now in order to grow the commany, perhaps the company can promote those 10 researchers from being investigators to managers of their own AI and they can increase their client base by a factor of 10. THAT is how automation works. This paranoid nonsense is goofy as hell, Elam.

[Sparko]

At the risk of making Elam even more paranoid...

The EU has lost its collective mind!

https://www.rt.com/viral/373450-robo...itches-status/

A European Parliament committee has voted in favor of a draft report that proposes granting legal status to robots, categorizing them as “electronic persons”.

The draft report, approved by 17 votes to two and two abstentions by the European Parliament Committee on Legal Affairs, proposes that “The most sophisticated autonomous robots could be established as having the status of electronic persons with specific rights and obligations, including that of making good any damage they may cause.”

If you want to read the draft and get a good chuckle, here is a link:
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/...2BPDF%2BV0//EN

[One Bad Pig]

At the risk of making Elam even more paranoid...

The EU has lost its collective mind!

https://www.rt.com/viral/373450-robo...itches-status/

A European Parliament committee has voted in favor of a draft report that proposes granting legal status to robots, categorizing them as “electronic persons”.

The draft report, approved by 17 votes to two and two abstentions by the European Parliament Committee on Legal Affairs, proposes that “The most sophisticated autonomous robots could be established as having the status of electronic persons with specific rights and obligations, including that of making good any damage they may cause.”

If you want to read the draft and get a good chuckle, here is a link:
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/...2BPDF%2BV0//EN

For the sarcastically impaired the following is said in jest

I can't imagine why several other members of the EU are considering following Great Britain's lead.

[elam]

Yeah, that's not how it works.

Guess you are only familiar with the workings of your lower courts.

In the British Commonwealth of Nations, each country has multiple levels of court. In Oz at the State level we have the Magistrate Courts, District Courts and the Supreme Court. At the Federal level we have numerous specialist courts but the main ones are the Family Court, the Federal Court & the High Courts (last court of appeal) .
http://www.skwirk.com/p-c_s-58_u-496...n-court-system

Imu, The federaltcourt system In the USA has three main levels: district courts (the trial court), circuit courts which are the first level of appeal, and the Supreme Court of the United States, the final level of appeal.
https://www.justice.gov/usao/justice-101/federal-courts

In in Oz we have consistency in the structure of our State courts. Imu, in the USA, the structure of state courts varies from state to state. But as a general rule, in the USA, State courts handle cases involving personal injury, criminal law matters, probate and estate planning matters, family law cases and traffic violations. However, state courts have no power to handle certain types of cases, such as those involving copyrights, bankruptcy, violation of the federal criminal law and immigration....
https://www.reference.com/government...fd4db9cc7e6aef

In both Oz & the USA our Highest court handles constitutional matters, and acts as the last court of appeal.

In Oz we have Solicitors & Barristers. There are different rankings of solicitors, a neighbourhood solicitor usually handles minor legalities and might appear for the defense. If a case is referred to a higher court, then a more senior solicitor appears for the defense , with the junior solicitor advising. This goes on until the defense has to commission a Barrister, who in turn might commission a Queens Counsel to defend the case. Generally, it is the various levels of Barrister that need access to case law and precedent. Especially in copyright, mercantile, marine & constitutional law.

Imu, in the USA there is a similar system with rankings of Lawyer/Attorney upto Counsel (?) Again, imu, it would be those defending complicated cases that would have a need for extensive study in case law & precedent. Thus would maintain a team of paralegals.

What do paralegals do? Washington University School of Law offers a Master of Legal Studies degree. There are numerous doctorates available in legal & ethical studies. Case law in ethics affects a lot of industries and they hire inhouse guys to cover their backs.

If you decease from examining your colon for a few moments and investigate the real world you might realise your current perceptions are blinked. Consider...

"According to a study by Research and Markets, the global legal process outsourcing is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.4 percent until 2019 as the cost of legal operations increase and firms seek ways to reduce [their] costs...Companies will continue to send legal work to countries like India and the Philippines...

A recent poll of a number of UK law firms found that more than half of the respondents would consider outsourcing more of their operations to increase profitability, reduce service delivery costs, improve scalability, boost quality of service and improve focus on the core business. In addition to administrative and IT services, over a third of respondents said they would also consider outsourcing legal document review and drafting, while more than 25 percent said they would outsource legal research and regulatory services. As law firms outsource more complex legal work like litigation support and research, the benefits of outsourcing are increasingly outweighing the risks. Today’s legal departments and law firms are outsourcing not only to save money, but also to improve service quality and easily scale their operations as need arises...."

http://www.sourcefit.com/blog/outsou...g-the-industry

FYI: If you read through the link LPO = Legal Process Outsourcing

[elam]

The operator has to tell the AI "Search for all contracts where the client has not paid their premiums more than 4 months in a row"..

That functionality was automated in the 1980s = 1st, 2nd & 3rd letter of demand. After that, that is when the lawyers step in and the client faces litigation. Alternatively, at some point the client approaches the bank and requests some time payment thingy.

and then make various judgments and then use that to make the decision.

The decision is made by corporate policy or legislation. The hacks were eliminated back in the 1990s.

Now in order to grow the company, perhaps the company can promote those 10 researchers from being investigators to managers of their own AI and they can increase their client base by a factor of 10.

Whereas in the past enterprises saw commercial advantage in inhouse development, these days they use collective knowledge and buy off the shelf. International & local law, ISO and other factors make DIY just too damned risky...

THAT is how automation works. This paranoid nonsense is goofy as hell, Elam.

THAT is how the real world works! And wishful thinking won't change it Sparko.

From what I gather you and I come from the era that the old NCR calculators were almost half the size of a desk, could only do addition & subtraction and had paper tape for output. I started out in full time employment as a batch clerk. I'd add up the invoices and create a balancing sheet, and take everything down to the punch card operators.

My old job & that team of punch card operators quickly became redundant, replaced by direct input at the state offices. Before that happened I'd already moved on. Ultimately, for every new occupation created in a state office, two occupations permanently disappeared in the state office and three permanently disappeared at the central level. Nobody was redeployed. Admittedly, in those days most of the persons to whom I am referring were girls and women, and it was assumed they'd get married, have kids and wouldn't need to work.

My reality is, with very few exceptions, in my IT experience, when you hit a certain age (last I heard it was 34yo & declining) management sees redeployment or retraining as a cost they can live without.

Back in the 1970s one company I worked for "retired" persons when they turned 50yo and in my experience that threshold has been declining. I actually survived until I was 51yo, and only got retrenched because the USA company I'd been transitioned to, sent my job to Malaysia (along with several hundred other jobs).

[One Bad Pig]

Guess you are only familiar with the workings of your lower courts.

In the British Commonwealth of Nations, each country has multiple levels of court. In Oz at the State level we have the Magistrate Courts, District Courts and the Supreme Court. At the Federal level we have numerous specialist courts but the main ones are the Family Court, the Federal Court & the High Courts (last court of appeal) .
http://www.skwirk.com/p-c_s-58_u-496...n-court-system

Imu, The federaltcourt system In the USA has three main levels: district courts (the trial court), circuit courts which are the first level of appeal, and the Supreme Court of the United States, the final level of appeal.
https://www.justice.gov/usao/justice-101/federal-courts

In in Oz we have consistency in the structure of our State courts. Imu, in the USA, the structure of state courts varies from state to state. But as a general rule, in the USA, State courts handle cases involving personal injury, criminal law matters, probate and estate planning matters, family law cases and traffic violations. However, state courts have no power to handle certain types of cases, such as those involving copyrights, bankruptcy, violation of the federal criminal law and immigration....
https://www.reference.com/government...fd4db9cc7e6aef

In both Oz & the USA our Highest court handles constitutional matters, and acts as the last court of appeal.

In Oz we have Solicitors & Barristers. There are different rankings of solicitors, a neighbourhood solicitor usually handles minor legalities and might appear for the defense. If a case is referred to a higher court, then a more senior solicitor appears for the defense , with the junior solicitor advising. This goes on until the defense has to commission a Barrister, who in turn might commission a Queens Counsel to defend the case. Generally, it is the various levels of Barrister that need access to case law and precedent. Especially in copyright, mercantile, marine & constitutional law.

Imu, in the USA there is a similar system with rankings of Lawyer/Attorney upto Counsel (?) Again, imu, it would be those defending complicated cases that would have a need for extensive study in case law & precedent.

What does any of this have to do with paralegals?

Thus would maintain a team of paralegals.

Unsupported non sequitur for the win!

What do paralegals do? Washington University School of Law offers a Master of Legal Studies degree.

Which doesn't mean a whole lot. I suppose it looks good, but it's strictly a luxury. You don't even need a baccalaureate degree in Paralegal Studies to work as a paralegal.

There are numerous doctorates available in legal & ethical studies. Case law in ethics affects a lot of industries and they hire inhouse guys to cover their backs.

These don't seem to have much to do with paralegal work.

If you decease from examining your colon for a few moments and investigate the real world you might realise your current perceptions are blinked.

Have you considered not being a jackass?

Consider...

"According to a study by Research and Markets, the global legal process outsourcing is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.4 percent until 2019 as the cost of legal operations increase and firms seek ways to reduce [their] costs...Companies will continue to send legal work to countries like India and the Philippines...

A recent poll of a number of UK law firms found that more than half of the respondents would consider outsourcing more of their operations to increase profitability, reduce service delivery costs, improve scalability, boost quality of service and improve focus on the core business. In addition to administrative and IT services, over a third of respondents said they would also consider outsourcing legal document review and drafting, while more than 25 percent said they would outsource legal research and regulatory services. As law firms outsource more complex legal work like litigation support and research, the benefits of outsourcing are increasingly outweighing the risks. Today’s legal departments and law firms are outsourcing not only to save money, but also to improve service quality and easily scale their operations as need arises...."

http://www.sourcefit.com/blog/outsou...g-the-industry

FYI: If you read through the link LPO = Legal Process Outsourcing

Yes, things like IT services and document review and coding are often outsourced (though in my line of work, outsourcing would generally run afoul of ITAR restrictions). Your idea that foreign PhDs are replacing paralegals is still faintly ridiculous.

[Sparko]

Guess you are only familiar with the workings of your lower courts.

In the British Commonwealth of Nations, each country has multiple levels of court. In Oz at the State level we have the Magistrate Courts, District Courts and the Supreme Court. At the Federal level we have numerous specialist courts but the main ones are the Family Court, the Federal Court & the High Courts (last court of appeal) .
http://www.skwirk.com/p-c_s-58_u-496...n-court-system

Imu, The federaltcourt system In the USA has three main levels: district courts (the trial court), circuit courts which are the first level of appeal, and the Supreme Court of the United States, the final level of appeal.
https://www.justice.gov/usao/justice-101/federal-courts

In in Oz we have consistency in the structure of our State courts. Imu, in the USA, the structure of state courts varies from state to state. But as a general rule, in the USA, State courts handle cases involving personal injury, criminal law matters, probate and estate planning matters, family law cases and traffic violations. However, state courts have no power to handle certain types of cases, such as those involving copyrights, bankruptcy, violation of the federal criminal law and immigration....
https://www.reference.com/government...fd4db9cc7e6aef

In both Oz & the USA our Highest court handles constitutional matters, and acts as the last court of appeal.

In Oz we have Solicitors & Barristers. There are different rankings of solicitors, a neighbourhood solicitor usually handles minor legalities and might appear for the defense. If a case is referred to a higher court, then a more senior solicitor appears for the defense , with the junior solicitor advising. This goes on until the defense has to commission a Barrister, who in turn might commission a Queens Counsel to defend the case. Generally, it is the various levels of Barrister that need access to case law and precedent. Especially in copyright, mercantile, marine & constitutional law.

Imu, in the USA there is a similar system with rankings of Lawyer/Attorney upto Counsel (?) Again, imu, it would be those defending complicated cases that would have a need for extensive study in case law & precedent. Thus would maintain a team of paralegals.

What do paralegals do? Washington University School of Law offers a Master of Legal Studies degree. There are numerous doctorates available in legal & ethical studies. Case law in ethics affects a lot of industries and they hire inhouse guys to cover their backs.

If you decease from examining your colon for a few moments and investigate the real world you might realise your current perceptions are blinked. Consider...

"According to a study by Research and Markets, the global legal process outsourcing is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.4 percent until 2019 as the cost of legal operations increase and firms seek ways to reduce [their] costs...Companies will continue to send legal work to countries like India and the Philippines...

A recent poll of a number of UK law firms found that more than half of the respondents would consider outsourcing more of their operations to increase profitability, reduce service delivery costs, improve scalability, boost quality of service and improve focus on the core business. In addition to administrative and IT services, over a third of respondents said they would also consider outsourcing legal document review and drafting, while more than 25 percent said they would outsource legal research and regulatory services. As law firms outsource more complex legal work like litigation support and research, the benefits of outsourcing are increasingly outweighing the risks. Today’s legal departments and law firms are outsourcing not only to save money, but also to improve service quality and easily scale their operations as need arises...."

http://www.sourcefit.com/blog/outsou...g-the-industry

FYI: If you read through the link LPO = Legal Process Outsourcing

LOL OBP!!! You got mansplained!

er, Elam, both OBP and I work at law firms. I think we both know what we are talking about a bit more than you do.

[hansgeorg]

Sure, machines replace people, but then you need people to maintain the machines, to design them, install them, run them, repair them. The jobs just move to another sector.

Actually, there are two problems with your proposal defending Industrial Revolution.

1) If this were not a question of less jobs to be paid, there would be no net reduction of expenses, no rationalisation from the p o v of a boss (contestable if companies are serving sufficient many bosses, which is the case);
2) There is a downgrade in the use of human skill when men are shuffled from building foods or clothes or furniture or houses to building machines that do so.

Christ was a carpenter, not a designer of chain saws in factories that cut up wood as it arrives.

[Sparko]

That functionality was automated in the 1980s = 1st, 2nd & 3rd letter of demand. After that, that is when the lawyers step in and the client faces litigation. Alternatively, at some point the client approaches the bank and requests some time payment thingy.

The decision is made by corporate policy or legislation. The hacks were eliminated back in the 1990s.

Whereas in the past enterprises saw commercial advantage in inhouse development, these days they use collective knowledge and buy off the shelf. International & local law, ISO and other factors make DIY just too damned risky...

THAT is how the real world works! And wishful thinking won't change it Sparko.

From what I gather you and I come from the era that the old NCR calculators were almost half the size of a desk, could only do addition & subtraction and had paper tape for output. I started out in full time employment as a batch clerk. I'd add up the invoices and create a balancing sheet, and take everything down to the punch card operators.

My old job & that team of punch card operators quickly became redundant, replaced by direct input at the state offices. Before that happened I'd already moved on. Ultimately, for every new occupation created in a state office, two occupations permanently disappeared in the state office and three permanently disappeared at the central level. Nobody was redeployed. Admittedly, in those days most of the persons to whom I am referring were girls and women, and it was assumed they'd get married, have kids and wouldn't need to work.

My reality is, with very few exceptions, in my IT experience, when you hit a certain age (last I heard it was 34yo & declining) management sees redeployment or retraining as a cost they can live without.

Back in the 1970s one company I worked for "retired" persons when they turned 50yo and in my experience that threshold has been declining. I actually survived until I was 51yo, and only got retrenched because the USA company I'd been transitioned to, sent my job to Malaysia (along with several hundred other jobs).

dude, from what I can tell, you retired from IT before we even had PCs and hard drives.

Your ideas of how AI and automation works border on paranoid delusion.

Automation will always eliminate some jobs and create others. That is how it has been for the last 200 years or more. When automobiles came along, a lot of blacksmiths went out of business, unless they transitioned over to making car parts instead of horseshoes. Technology moves on, it changes. Certain things become obsolete while new things are invented. Jobs move around. That is just how it is. Live with it, or become obsolete yourself. Sounds like you chose obsolescence and are bitter about it.