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The weather for 2017

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  • #16
    El Nino weather conditions may return/

    Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf



    Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-average across the central
    and east-central Pacific. They are above-average in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
    ENSO-neutral conditions are favored to continue through at least the Northern
    Hemisphere spring 2017, with increasing chances for El Niño development by
    late summer and fall.

    © Copyright Original Source

    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

    Comment


    • #17
      Signs of a possible return to El Nino return increase. The good news is if the El Nino returns there will be fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic than expected, but warmer average temperatures, continuing deterioration of many coral reefs, and increased drought conditions are part of the bad news.

      Source: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/april-2017-enso-update-conflicting-signals-tropical-pacific-ocean


      April 2017 ENSO update: Conflicting signals from the tropical Pacific Ocean
      Author: Anthony Barnston
      April 13, 2017

      The tropical Pacific Ocean has been giving mixed signals recently, making a forecaster’s job even more difficult! In short, many of the computer models we use are predicting the development of El Niño over the next several months, but current conditions in the tropical Pacific aren’t showing many of the elements we’d expect ahead of a developing El Niño.

      We’ve had neutral ENSO conditions since January, and forecasters predict that continued neutral is the most likely scenario through at least June. By September, chances of El Niño rise to about 50%, a slight edge over neutral (~40% chance) or La Niña (~10% chance).

      What are forecasters seeing now?
      We rely on prediction models because they provide the most likely evolution of the ENSO system better than we can compute on our own by eyeballing maps and charts and analyzing what has happened in the past under similar conditions.

      Right now, many climate forecast models do predict the development of a full-fledged El Niño during this summer or fall. It’s likely that these models are acting on the much warmer-than-average waters near the coast of South America—the “Coastal El Niño” that I’ll get to a little bit later in this post. Predictions for the Niño3.4 region in the east-central Pacific, shown in the figure below, show chances for El Niño ramping up over the next year.

      © Copyright Original Source



      2017 represents a transition year of El Nina /LA Nina conditions that could of course go either way. There was a near record number of tornadoes this year, which is more representative of La Nina weather conditions.
      Last edited by shunyadragon; 05-08-2017, 06:49 AM.
      Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
      Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
      But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

      go with the flow the river knows . . .

      Frank

      I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

      Comment


      • #18
        What's the difference between global warming and climate change?

        The reality of changes in world climate does not change regardless of the terminology we use. Calling it Global climate change does not change the fact that the world climate is warming.


        Source: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/whats-difference-between-global-warming-and-climate-change



        New understanding required new terms

        Regardless of whether you say that climate change is all the side effects of global warming, or that global warming is one symptom of human-caused climate change, you’re essentially talking about the same basic phenomenon: the build up of excess heat energy in the Earth system. So why do we have two ways of describing what is basically the same thing?

        According to historian Spencer Weart, the use of more than one term to describe different aspects of the same phenomenon tracks the progress of scientists’ understanding of the problem.

        As far back as the late 1800s, scientists were hypothesizing that industrialization, driven by the burning of fossil fuels for energy, had the potential to modify the climate. For many decades, though, they weren’t sure whether cooling (due to reflection of sunlight from pollution) or warming (due to greenhouse gases) would dominate.

        By the mid-1970s, however, more and more evidence suggested warming would dominate and that it would be unlike any previous, naturally triggered warming episode. The phrase “global warming” emerged to describe that scientific consensus.

        global temperature trend 1900-2014
        Change in temperature (degrees per century) from 1900-2014. Gray areas indicate where there is insufficient data to detect a long-term trend. NOAA Climate.gov map, based on NOAAGlobalTemp data from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.

        But over subsequent decades, scientists became more aware that global warming was not the only impact of excess heat absorbed by greenhouse gases. Other changes—sea level rise, intensification of the water cycle, stress on plants and animals—were likely to be far more important to our daily lives and economies. By the 1990s, scientists increasingly used “human-caused climate change” to describe the challenge facing the planet.

        The bottom line
        Today’s global warming is an unprecedented type of climate change, and it is driving a cascade of side effects in our climate system. It’s these side effects, such as changes in sea level along heavily populated coastlines and the worldwide retreat of mountain glaciers that millions of people depend on for drinking water and agriculture, that are likely to have a much greater impact on society than temperature change alone.

        © Copyright Original Source

        Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
        Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
        But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

        go with the flow the river knows . . .

        Frank

        I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

        Comment


        • #19
          Data for world temperature record is in on the UAH site. It shows an increase over March.

          Source: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/05/uah-global-temperature-update-for-april-2017-0-27-deg-c/



          UAH Global Temperature Update for April, 2017: +0.27 deg. C
          May 1st, 2017 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
          The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for April, 2017 was +0.27 deg. C, up from the March, 2017 value of +0.19 deg. C (click for full size version):


          Global area-averaged lower tropospheric temperature anomalies (departures from 30-year calendar monthly means, 1981-2010). The 13-month centered average is meant to give an indication of the lower frequency variations in the data; the choice of 13 months is somewhat arbitrary… an odd number of months allows centered plotting on months with no time lag between the two plotted time series. The inclusion of two of the same calendar months on the ends of the 13 month averaging period causes no issues with interpretation because the seasonal temperature cycle has been removed as has the distinction between calendar months.
          The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 16 months are:

          YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPICS
          2016 01 +0.54 +0.69 +0.39 +0.84
          2016 02 +0.83 +1.16 +0.50 +0.98
          2016 03 +0.73 +0.94 +0.52 +1.08
          2016 04 +0.71 +0.85 +0.58 +0.93
          2016 05 +0.54 +0.64 +0.44 +0.71
          2016 06 +0.33 +0.50 +0.17 +0.37
          2016 07 +0.39 +0.48 +0.29 +0.47
          2016 08 +0.43 +0.55 +0.31 +0.49
          2016 09 +0.44 +0.49 +0.38 +0.37
          2016 10 +0.40 +0.42 +0.39 +0.46
          2016 11 +0.45 +0.40 +0.50 +0.37
          2016 12 +0.24 +0.18 +0.30 +0.21
          2017 01 +0.30 +0.26 +0.33 +0.07
          2017 02 +0.35 +0.54 +0.15 +0.05
          2017 03 +0.19 +0.30 +0.07 +0.03
          2017 04 +0.27 +0.27 +0.26 +0.21

          The UAH LT global anomaly image for April, 2017 should be available in the next few days here.

          The new Version 6 files should also be updated soon, and are located here

          © Copyright Original Source

          Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
          Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
          But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

          go with the flow the river knows . . .

          Frank

          I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
            Data for world temperature record is in on the UAH site. It shows an increase over March.
            Just out of curiosity, why do you keep using the satellite record?
            "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by TheLurch View Post
              Just out of curiosity, why do you keep using the satellite record?
              Why not? It is not the only records cited, but it is valid evidence and confirmed by other sources over time.
              Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
              Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
              But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

              go with the flow the river knows . . .

              Frank

              I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                Why not? It is not the only records cited, but it is valid evidence and confirmed by other sources over time.
                It is a very indirect measure of temperature, samples the entire troposphere, is far more variable than surface records, and has suffered from serious errors in the past. Before those errors were corrected, it actually show the opposite temperature trend from all other records.
                "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by TheLurch View Post
                  It is a very indirect measure of temperature, samples the entire troposphere, is far more variable than surface records, and has suffered from serious errors in the past. Before those errors were corrected, it actually show the opposite temperature trend from all other records.
                  I mainly post what is available concerning global temperature records. As it is, I believe the different source are relatively consistent. Please cite other source if you find them available.
                  Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                  Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                  But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                  go with the flow the river knows . . .

                  Frank

                  I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                    I mainly post what is available concerning global temperature records. As it is, I believe the different source are relatively consistent. Please cite other source if you find them available.
                    The best sources are the surface temperature records, which you almost certainly know already. These all tell pretty much the same story when looking at a global mean anomaly. Discussion of how they differ (in method, or in regional coverage, etc) may be of interest, but has little impact on the global mean anomaly.
                    • GISStemp. This is produced by the climate group within NASA.
                    • HadCRUT4. This is produced by Met Office, in the UK.
                    • NOAAGlobalTemp (previously called MLOST). Produced by NOAA (the official US government body for climate data.)
                    • BEST. The Berkeley Earth group.
                    • JMA. Japan Meteorological Agency.
                    • Cowtan and Way infilling with HadCRUT4. (Based on HadCRUT4, but extended using kringing to cover parts of the globe omitted in the original.)


                    Not that there's anything wrong with using the satellite record, if that's what one really wants to look at. But it is worth noting that the satellite data is subject to much more in the way of uncertainties and systematic errors; and it is actually measuring something a bit different than surface temperature. The satellite data is certainly of interest when we specifically want to consider the response of the atmosphere. It's a bit of an indirect measure of global warming trends however, quite apart from the accuracy and precision issues.

                    There are a couple of satellite data sets published, based on different ways of managing all the problems with the underlying raw microwave brightness data that is provided by satellites. There are some outstanding problems of interest. Measurements suggest that the atmosphere is not warming quite as fast as expected from models. This is not a refutation of global warming itself... because the warming of the surface is not what is in question here. It's about responses of the atmosphere to the warming we do see. Whether this is a problem with models, or with the calculations of atmospheric temperatures, is not clear, IMO.

                    For looking at year to year trends, as Shunya is doing here, I would personally recommend using GISStemp. It's a lot more stable than the satellite products, which are being updated periodically to better manage all the problems associated with getting a consistent temperature from the microwave data available. (Surface temperature datasets get updated as well, but the changes and systematic measurement errors and uncertainties are far smaller.) GISStemp also very easily available and widely used by others. It is a direct surface temperature measure, which is what we use in weather reports; and so is a better fit with the thread topic.

                    However, any data you decide to look at can be of interest. I'm not all that fussed if we want to look at tropospheric temperatures rather than surface temperatures. It's Shunya's thread. I do think it is worth noting for the record, however, that the tropospheric temperature doesn't actually correspond to weather as it is conventionally reported by weather agencies or experienced by individuals living at ground level.

                    Cheers -- sylas

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by sylas View Post
                      The best sources are the surface temperature records, which you almost certainly know already. These all tell pretty much the same story when looking at a global mean anomaly. Discussion of how they differ (in method, or in regional coverage, etc) may be of interest, but has little impact on the global mean anomaly.
                      • GISStemp. This is produced by the climate group within NASA.
                      • HadCRUT4. This is produced by Met Office, in the UK.
                      • NOAAGlobalTemp (previously called MLOST). Produced by NOAA (the official US government body for climate data.)
                      • BEST. The Berkeley Earth group.
                      • JMA. Japan Meteorological Agency.
                      • Cowtan and Way infilling with HadCRUT4. (Based on HadCRUT4, but extended using kringing to cover parts of the globe omitted in the original.)


                      Not that there's anything wrong with using the satellite record, if that's what one really wants to look at. But it is worth noting that the satellite data is subject to much more in the way of uncertainties and systematic errors; and it is actually measuring something a bit different than surface temperature. The satellite data is certainly of interest when we specifically want to consider the response of the atmosphere. It's a bit of an indirect measure of global warming trends however, quite apart from the accuracy and precision issues.

                      There are a couple of satellite data sets published, based on different ways of managing all the problems with the underlying raw microwave brightness data that is provided by satellites. There are some outstanding problems of interest. Measurements suggest that the atmosphere is not warming quite as fast as expected from models. This is not a refutation of global warming itself... because the warming of the surface is not what is in question here. It's about responses of the atmosphere to the warming we do see. Whether this is a problem with models, or with the calculations of atmospheric temperatures, is not clear, IMO.

                      For looking at year to year trends, as Shunya is doing here, I would personally recommend using GISStemp. It's a lot more stable than the satellite products, which are being updated periodically to better manage all the problems associated with getting a consistent temperature from the microwave data available. (Surface temperature datasets get updated as well, but the changes and systematic measurement errors and uncertainties are far smaller.) GISStemp also very easily available and widely used by others. It is a direct surface temperature measure, which is what we use in weather reports; and so is a better fit with the thread topic.

                      However, any data you decide to look at can be of interest. I'm not all that fussed if we want to look at tropospheric temperatures rather than surface temperatures. It's Shunya's thread. I do think it is worth noting for the record, however, that the tropospheric temperature doesn't actually correspond to weather as it is conventionally reported by weather agencies or experienced by individuals living at ground level.

                      Cheers -- sylas
                      It is not that I simple want to look at to look at this source. I wish to present all the different sources and compare to demonstrate the trends in climate over time. I also cite NOAAs data and analysis, but it shows up later in the month.

                      Great post!!!! Thank you!!!
                      Last edited by shunyadragon; 05-14-2017, 08:33 AM.
                      Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                      Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                      But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                      go with the flow the river knows . . .

                      Frank

                      I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                        It is not that I simple want to look at to look at this source. I wish to present all the different sources and compare to demonstrate the trends in climate over time. I also cite NOAAs data and analysis, but it shows up later in the month.
                        Fair enough. NOAA global anomaly data is available for March now.

                        You can access "NOAAGlobalTemp" data, and in particular the summary as a global anomaly, here: NOAAGlobalTemp. There's a simple tool to give plots directly, or you can look up data files to plot, process, or analyze yourself.

                        In brief, this March shows up in this data as an increase over February.

                        GISS also has their data available, and they show March as a slight decrease over February.

                        We are not looking at trends when we drill down into individual months like this. This is a very short term phenomena indeed, with strong regional influences. The differences between independent calculations can arise for a number of reasons. Looked at over time, the datasets track very close to each other indeed, as they are all estimates of the same basic thing. UAH is bound to be a bit of an outlier in such a comparison, as it is measuring something slightly different, as noted previously.

                        Cheers -- sylas

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Thanks to Sylas for expanding my one-liner into a detailed explanation.

                          Easiest way to track what's up with GISS-TEMP is through this link:
                          https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/t...LB.Ts+dSST.txt
                          "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by TheLurch View Post
                            Thanks to Sylas for expanding my one-liner into a detailed explanation.

                            Easiest way to track what's up with GISS-TEMP is through this link:
                            https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/t...LB.Ts+dSST.txt
                            Good to cite this source, but April data not yet available here.
                            Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                            Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                            But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                            go with the flow the river knows . . .

                            Frank

                            I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by sylas View Post
                              Fair enough. NOAA global anomaly data is available for March now.

                              You can access "NOAAGlobalTemp" data, and in particular the summary as a global anomaly, here: NOAAGlobalTemp. There's a simple tool to give plots directly, or you can look up data files to plot, process, or analyze yourself.

                              In brief, this March shows up in this data as an increase over February.

                              GISS also has their data available, and they show March as a slight decrease over February.

                              We are not looking at trends when we drill down into individual months like this. This is a very short term phenomena indeed, with strong regional influences. The differences between independent calculations can arise for a number of reasons. Looked at over time, the datasets track very close to each other indeed, as they are all estimates of the same basic thing. UAH is bound to be a bit of an outlier in such a comparison, as it is measuring something slightly different, as noted previously.

                              Cheers -- sylas
                              The purpose of this series of thread is not drilling down on month by month data. Based on the discussion of this data over time, and the El Nino/La Nina pattern over the years of this chain of threads, and this is the most consistent warmest period in recent history when supposedly by the evidence of climate cycles we should be in a cooling trend. It is not significant on a month by month data, but over time it is an interesting discussion on climate trends over time. I believe El Nino/La Nina pattern we are experiencing is intimately related to the warming trend in climate. You were optimistic that we may not even have the La Nina at this time in the cycle, and you may be correct.
                              Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                              Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                              But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                              go with the flow the river knows . . .

                              Frank

                              I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                The latest report is in concerning the El Nino/La Nina. The conclusion is inconclusive, and we are in a neutral status with no conclusive evidence on which way this will go.

                                Source: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2017-enso-update-mayday


                                May 2017 ENSO Update: Mayday
                                Author: Emily Becker
                                May 11, 2017

                                We’re finally starting to get through the spring barrier, when climate models have a harder time making successful forecasts. Forecasters estimate the chance of El Niño forming is about equal to the chance that neutral conditions will continue: both are just shy of 50% through the fall. Unlike two years ago, when the signal that a strong El Niño was developing was clear, most of our prediction tools are suggesting very borderline conditions, making it a tough forecast.

                                Current events
                                Ocean temperatures in the Niño3.4 region have been in neutral territory for a few months now, shifting from slightly cooler than the long-term average to about 0.4°C (0.7°F) warmer than average during April in one of our SST datasets.

                                The “coastal El Niño” that we’ve been watching (much warmer than average sea surface temperatures near the tropical coast of South America) has weakened substantially over the past couple months, to about 0.9°C above average during April. This ocean warming is very significant for Peru and Ecuador, since it can lead to rising moist air and cause thunderstorms over the coastal regions. However, the coastal El Niño doesn’t always precede the kind of El Niño that we forecast here at the blog, so it is limited as a predictive tool. (Check out the second half of Tony’s post for more information.)


                                Average sea surface temperature during April 2017, shown as departure from the long-term (1981-2010) average. Climate.gov figure from CPC data.

                                Since the start of the great La Niña of 2016-17 (I’m kidding, it was measly), the atmosphere in the tropics has shown signs of a stronger-than-average Walker circulation, with more rain over Indonesia, less over the central Pacific, and stronger near-surface east-to-west winds along the equator. This is expected during La Niña, but these atmospheric conditions outlasted the cool ocean conditions by a few extra months. However, during April, this pattern finally dissipated, and the atmosphere finally looked bona fide neutral.


                                Time-longitude graph showing the changes in cloudiness over the past 5 months. Graph shows conditions over the Equator in January 2017 (top) through May 2017. Purple indicates more clouds than the long-term average and orange fewer; the persistent La Niña pattern of less cloudiness in the central Pacific changes in late April. Long-term average is from 1981-2010. Data based on satellite observations of outgoing longwave radiation (heat). Thick clouds block heat from radiating out to space, so less radiation = more clouds, and more radiation = clearer skies.

                                Coming attractions
                                So, here’s the tricky part. As regular readers know, we not only need to expect that El Niño conditions will develop (with the sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region more than 0.5°C warmer than average) but also that they will stay there for several months to qualify as an El Niño episode. The reasoning behind that requirement is to be sure we’re seeing a more persistent seasonal event, rather than other weather and subseasonal fluctuations.

                                Many of the forecast models are predicting that sea surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region will hover around 0.5°C warmer than average for several months. Some of the models are a little warmer, some a little cooler. The average of the models, which is generally considered to be the best forecast, is very close to 0.5°C above average, continuing along through the summer and into the fall.

                                With the forecast falling right on the threshold, the outcome could be several seasons in a row greater than 0.5°C… or it could be a slightly cooler outcome, leaving us coasting in neutral. Right now, there are not a lot of indications one way or the other.

                                Along with the range of potential outcomes shown by the computer models, we pay close attention to the amount of extra heat under the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean. This subsurface temperature often leads the surface temperature by a few months, so if we saw a larger amount of warm water under the surface it could provide some confidence to shore up the models that are forecasting El Niño. Currently, temperatures are only slightly elevated, and there hasn’t been a strong warming over the past few months.


                                Monthly average heat content in the upper 300m of the equatorial Pacific. Data shown is the difference from the 1981-2010 average between 180°W and 100°W. Climate.gov graphic from CPC data.

                                With the forecast balanced between El Niño and continued neutral conditions, we’ll have to make sure we load up on the popcorn and soda, turn off our cell phones, and watch the movie...whoops, I mean, activity in the tropical Pacific...closely over the next few months.

                                © Copyright Original Source

                                Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                                Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                                But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                                go with the flow the river knows . . .

                                Frank

                                I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                                Comment

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