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The weather for 2017

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  • #31
    The following reference is interesting concerning the math behind climate change, Even though some of the change in recent history does not appear large from the layman's perspective the impact is significant. There is an indication of an acceleration of change in recent years.

    Climate Change by Numbers

    https://www.aaas.org/multimedia/clim...ge-numbers-bbc
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

    Comment


    • #32
      Many of the current predictions support a return to El Nino within 3 months, which is not good news for the climate.

      Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml


      EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
      DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
      issued by
      CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
      and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
      08 June 2017

      ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active


      Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored (50 to ~55% chance) through the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017.

      During May, ENSO-neutral continued, though sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were above average in the east-central Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño index values were near +0.5°C in most of the Niño regions, except for the easternmost Niño-1+2, which was at +0.2°C [Fig. 2]. The upper-ocean heat content anomaly increased during May [Fig. 3], reflecting the expansion of above-average sub-surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific [Fig. 4] in association with a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave. While ocean temperatures were elevated, the atmosphere was close to average. Atmospheric convection anomalies were weak over the central tropical Pacific and Maritime Continent [Fig. 5], while the lower-level and upper-level winds were near average over most of the tropical Pacific. Both the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Equatorial SOI were also near zero. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system remains consistent with ENSO-neutral.

      Many models predict the onset of El Niño (3-month average Niño-3.4 index at or greater than 0.5°C) during the Northern Hemisphere summer [Fig. 6]. However, the NCEP CFSv2 and most of the models from the latest runs of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) are now favoring the continuation of ENSO-neutral. These predictions, combined with the near-average atmospheric conditions over the Pacific, have resulted in slightly more confidence for the persistence of ENSO-neutral (50 to ~55% chance). However, chances for El Niño remain elevated (35-50%) relative to the long-term average into the fall. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored (50 to ~55% chance) through the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

      © Copyright Original Source

      Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
      Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
      But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

      go with the flow the river knows . . .

      Frank

      I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
        Many of the current predictions support a return to El Nino within 3 months, which is not good news for the climate.
        This is not really "climate". It's weather. Different thing. We've had El Nino and La Nina come and go for as long as we can measure, and that IS the climate. The changes bring a mix of good and bad news for different regions, but it's short term news. Weather news.

        Added to which... the specifics of the article you cite indicate that ENSO-neutral is "favoured", meaning that their best estimate is neutral being a bit more likely than not. If we do get El Nino again so soon, it's likely to be a weak one. There's nothing in the short term ENSO predictions to give any special heightened concern.

        Cheers -- Sylas

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by sylas View Post
          This is not really "climate". It's weather. Different thing. We've had El Nino and La Nina come and go for as long as we can measure, and that IS the climate. The changes bring a mix of good and bad news for different regions, but it's short term news. Weather news.

          Added to which... the specifics of the article you cite indicate that ENSO-neutral is "favoured", meaning that their best estimate is neutral being a bit more likely than not. If we do get El Nino again so soon, it's likely to be a weak one. There's nothing in the short term ENSO predictions to give any special heightened concern.

          Cheers -- Sylas
          Your correct!!!
          Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
          Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
          But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

          go with the flow the river knows . . .

          Frank

          I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

          Comment


          • #35
            Now this is interesting:
            https://www.facebook.com/aScienceEnt...1115456250229/
            1Cor 15:34 Come to your senses as you ought and stop sinning; for I say to your shame, there are some who know not God.
            .
            ⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛
            Scripture before Tradition:
            but that won't prevent others from
            taking it upon themselves to deprive you
            of the right to call yourself Christian.

            ⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by tabibito View Post
              I like the graphic!
              Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
              Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
              But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

              go with the flow the river knows . . .

              Frank

              I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

              Comment


              • #37
                The trend is Neutral concerning El Nino-La Nina weather pattern, and predicted to extend through the summer with a possibility of a returning El Nino in the Fall and Winter. This is not a promising trend in the weather for drought patterns in North, Central and South America.

                Source: http://www.climas.arizona.edu/swco/southwest-climate-outlook-june-2017/enso-tracker-june-2017


                ENSO Tracker - June 2017
                Oceanic and atmospheric indicators of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are still within the range of neutral (Figs. 1-2), although sea-surface temperatures more consistently hint at borderline El Niño conditions compared to atmospheric indicators. Outlooks and forecasts generally agree that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist through the summer and is the most likely scenario for the rest of 2017. A lingering possibility remains of an El Nino event developing later this fall, but forecasts since last month have shifted further from that likelihood.





                On June 6, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology maintained its El Niño Watch with a 50-percent chance of an El Niño event in 2017, but noted indicators have remained mostly unchanged for multiple weeks, “suggesting El Niño development has stalled for now.” On June 8, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) observed that oceanic and atmospheric conditions were consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions, but recent model runs led CPC forecasters to shift to a 50-55-percent chance of ENSO-neutral conditions in 2017 and a 35-50 percent chance of El Niño. On June 9, the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) identified a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions with a 70-percent chance of El Niño conditions until fall 2017, noting that oceanic and atmospheric conditions “indicate no clear signs of El Niño development.” On June 15, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and CPC identified ENSO-neutral as the most likely outcome in 2017, with a 40-to-45-percent chance of an El Niño in 2017 (Fig. 3). The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is borderline weak El Niño as of June 2017, and while the model spread indicates a wide range of possible outcomes for the rest of 2017 (Fig. 4), the ensemble mean indicates ENSO-neutral as the most likely outcome (but with a weak El Niño event still within the range of plausibility), which is reflected in the uncertainty in the CPC and IRI/CPC outlooks.

                © Copyright Original Source

                Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                go with the flow the river knows . . .

                Frank

                I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.

                  Mark Twain
                  Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/q...ain134885.html
                  Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                  Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                  But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                  go with the flow the river knows . . .

                  Frank

                  I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    The July results of monitoring the El Niño/La Niña trend and predictions. Based on the July results it was predicted that that Neutral conditions will persist through the rest of 2017.


                    ENSO Tracker - July 2017

                    Oceanic and atmospheric indicators are still within the range of neutral (Figs. 1-2), although sea-surface temperatures have hinted at borderline El Niño conditions. Seasonal outlooks and forecasts generally agree that ENSO-neutral conditions are the most likely outcome for the remainder of 2017, albeit with a lingering possibility of an El Niño event by winter 2017-2018.

                    On July 10, the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) identified a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions with an 80-percent chance of them extending through fall 2017. On July 13, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) observed that oceanic and atmospheric conditions were consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions, maintaining a 50-55-percent chance of ENSO-neutral conditions in 2017 and a 35-45-percent chance of an El Niño. On July 18, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology effectively ended their El Niño watch, citing little evidence for anything other than neutral conditions at this point. On July 20, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and CPC identified a 35-40-percent chance of an El Niño in 2017 (Fig. 3) with “ENSO-neutral as the most likely condition during 2017.” The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is ENSO-neutral as of July 2017. The model spread indicates a range of outcomes for the rest of 2017 (Fig. 4), but the ensemble mean indicates ENSO-neutral as the most likely outcome, yet allowing that a weak El Niño event is plausible.

                    Summary: The lack of atmospheric indicators of El Niño and the borderline status of sea-surface temperature anomalies have further contributed to forecaster consensus that ENSO-neutral conditions are the most likely outcome for 2017. An El Niño event remains possible but looks increasingly unlikely. As with last month, two key conclusions can be drawn from the current outlooks and forecasts. One, the probability of a La Niña event in 2017 is near zero, which is good news considering La Niña winters are often warmer and drier than normal in the Southwest. Two, given the relatively weak correlation between cool-season precipitation and weak El Niño events, it doesn’t really matter whether this winter ultimately turns out as ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño, as the winter seasonal precipitation outlook for the Southwest will encompass a wide range of possible outcomes, including both wetter and drier than normal conditions. [/cite]
                    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                    go with the flow the river knows . . .

                    Frank

                    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                    Comment

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