Announcement

Collapse

Natural Science 301 Guidelines

This is an open forum area for all members for discussions on all issues of science and origins. This area will and does get volatile at times, but we ask that it be kept to a dull roar, and moderators will intervene to keep the peace if necessary. This means obvious trolling and flaming that becomes a problem will be dealt with, and you might find yourself in the doghouse.

As usual, Tweb rules apply. If you haven't read them now would be a good time.

Forum Rules: Here
See more
See less

The weather for 2017

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • The weather for 2017

    Like the previous threads on annual weather and temperature trends this thread will follow these trends for 2017. Also the relationship between the El Nino/La Nina cycle will be compared to the temperature and weather data. I do not predict that 2017 will be another record breaker, but I believe it will be above average. The preliminary data is in for January 2017 and it is globally warmer then the 30 yer average.

    Source: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/02/01/global-temperature-report-january-2017/


    Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.12 C per decade
    January temperatures (preliminary)

    Global composite temp.: +0.30 C (about 0.54 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for January.
    Northern Hemisphere: +0.27 C (about 0.49 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for January.
    Southern Hemisphere: +0.33 C (about 0.59 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for January.
    Tropics: +0.07 C (about 0.13 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for January.
    December temperatures (revised):

    Global Composite: +0.24 C above 30-year average
    Northern Hemisphere: +0.19 C above 30-year average
    Southern Hemisphere: +0.30 C above 30-year average
    Tropics: +0.21 C above 30-year average
    (All temperature anomalies are based on a 30-year average (1981-2010) for the month reported.)
    Notes on data released Feb. 1, 2017:

    Temperatures in the tropical atmosphere continued to drop in January as temperatures there moved closer to their long-term averages, according to Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. Composite temperatures over both hemispheres, however, bumped slightly warmer in January, especially in the higher latitudes. In the Northern Hemisphere, pockets of warmer than normal air were especially pronounced over the eastern U.S., Canada and the North Atlantic. In the Southern Hemisphere, Australia and a large area of southern ocean between South America and New Zealand were warmer than normal.

    © Copyright Original Source

    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  • #2
    There are indications that El Nino may be coming back already this year.

    From the most recent Australian Bureau of Meteorology ENSO wrap up:
    Source: BOM Australia


    Climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely for the remainder of the southern hemisphere summer and into autumn. All models indicate the central Pacific is likely to warm over the coming months, suggesting ENSO-neutral or El Niño are the most likely scenarios for winter/spring 2017.

    A neutral ENSO state does not necessarily mean average rainfall or temperature for Australia. Rather it means that ENSO patterns are not driving Australia's weather toward generally wetter or drier conditions. Other shorter-term or smaller-scale climate drivers may dominate and hence influence Australia's climate.

    Half the models surveyed suggest strong warming may occur during autumn, with five reaching El Niño thresholds by mid to late winter. It must be noted that this outlook straddles the autumn predictability barrier—typically the ENSO transition period—during which most models have their lowest forecast accuracy.

    © Copyright Original Source



    Comment on this from the weather underground blog: So Long, La Niña; Arctic Temperatures Soar 63°F in 24 Hours:
    Source: Weather underground Blog

    The latest Australian Bureau of Meteorology models are more aggressive about El Niño, showing development by this spring. If El Niño materializes in 2017, it would give us an unusual three-year series of El Niño/La Niña/El Niño: something that has only happened once since 1950—in 1963/1964/1965.

    © Copyright Original Source



    (The blog title refers to two different stories. The other story there is about a weather event in Northern Greenland which saw temperatures rise "an astonishing 63°F (34.8°C) in just 24 hours". Difference in temperature 24 hours apart, same time of "day". Day in quotes as this is in the Arctic.)

    Meanwhile, here in Australia we are having a nasty heat wave. Beaches closed, kids off to hospital from overheating, really nasty.

    Cheers -- sylas

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by sylas View Post
      Meanwhile, here in Australia we are having a nasty heat wave. Beaches closed, kids off to hospital from overheating, really nasty.
      Why would you close beaches when it's hot? Wouldn't the water be a good place to cool off?
      Find my speling strange? I'm trying this out: Simplified Speling. Feel free to join me.

      "Nature has placed mankind under the governance of two sovereign masters, pain and pleasure. It is for them alone to point out what we ought to do, as well as to determine what we shall do."-Jeremy Bentham

      "We question all our beliefs, except for the ones that we really believe in, and those we never think to question."-Orson Scott Card

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by stfoskey15 View Post
        Why would you close beaches when it's hot? Wouldn't the water be a good place to cool off?
        Beaches were closed in Queensland due to poor ocean conditions and a big swell. But IMO, a beach isn't that great a place in a heat wave. A beach gets very hot, with not much shade or facilities. The sand can get hot enough to burn.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by stfoskey15 View Post
          Why would you close beaches when it's hot? Wouldn't the water be a good place to cool off?
          On many coastlines that is true, but clearly not down under, or at least where sylas is. The US Pacific coast waters are so cool one usually needs a jacket or windbreaker, and even the south Florida beaches get a cooling breeze off the ocean, though I,ve been on southeastern US beaches many times when you had to wear some sort of flip flop or other foot covering to keep the sand farther from the water from burning one's feet.

          Jim
          My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

          If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

          This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by sylas View Post
            There are indications that El Nino may be coming back already this year.

            From the most recent Australian Bureau of Meteorology ENSO wrap up:
            Source: BOM Australia


            Climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely for the remainder of the southern hemisphere summer and into autumn. All models indicate the central Pacific is likely to warm over the coming months, suggesting ENSO-neutral or El Niño are the most likely scenarios for winter/spring 2017.

            A neutral ENSO state does not necessarily mean average rainfall or temperature for Australia. Rather it means that ENSO patterns are not driving Australia's weather toward generally wetter or drier conditions. Other shorter-term or smaller-scale climate drivers may dominate and hence influence Australia's climate.

            Half the models surveyed suggest strong warming may occur during autumn, with five reaching El Niño thresholds by mid to late winter. It must be noted that this outlook straddles the autumn predictability barrier—typically the ENSO transition period—during which most models have their lowest forecast accuracy.

            © Copyright Original Source



            Comment on this from the weather underground blog: So Long, La Niña; Arctic Temperatures Soar 63°F in 24 Hours:
            Source: Weather underground Blog

            The latest Australian Bureau of Meteorology models are more aggressive about El Niño, showing development by this spring. If El Niño materializes in 2017, it would give us an unusual three-year series of El Niño/La Niña/El Niño: something that has only happened once since 1950—in 1963/1964/1965.

            © Copyright Original Source



            (The blog title refers to two different stories. The other story there is about a weather event in Northern Greenland which saw temperatures rise "an astonishing 63°F (34.8°C) in just 24 hours". Difference in temperature 24 hours apart, same time of "day". Day in quotes as this is in the Arctic.)

            Meanwhile, here in Australia we are having a nasty heat wave. Beaches closed, kids off to hospital from overheating, really nasty.

            Cheers -- sylas
            The qualification of 'may come back' is important. I will take a 'cautious wait and see' view, because the transition period between El Nino and La Nina can be longer or less clear tan expected.

            Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/01/17/what-experts-think-of-speculation-that-el-nino-will-return-in-2017/#4fac9d3f807d


            This is also evident in the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) provided by Meteorologist Jan Null. It is derived from various NOAA datasets. Null also maintains a very comprehensive website with everything you would want to know about El Niño. Trust me, it is worth a browse if you are a weather or climate geek like me.

            The latest El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic discussion was issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society on Jan. 12, 2017. It stated that,

            A transition to ENSO-neutral is expected to occur by February 2017, with ENSO-neutral then continuing through the first half of 2017.

            ENSO-neutral means that one of the primary indices used by climatologists, the 3-month average Niño- 3.4 index, is between -0.5°C and 0.5°C. This week Twitter was buzzing because one of the world’s top weather-climate model ensembles, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), suggested that El Niño may be possible by August. In a Tweet, Dr. Phil Klotzbach noted that about 70% of the ensemble members pointed to El Niño by July. NOAA’s Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2 was not as “bullish” on El Niño.

            I decided to get the thoughts of Dr. Klotzbach, research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, and Dr. David Zeiden, the State Climatologist for Florida based at Florida State University.

            Dr. Zierden who is also affiliated with the Florida Climate Center told me,

            I saw the ECMWF ensemble forecast going around that looked very bullish. However, it is always difficult predicting ENSO this side of the spring predictions barrier. I am more prone to “wait and see,” keeping an eye out for westerly wind episodes or bursts.

            He also pointed out that the likelihood of La Niña following a strong El Niño (like this year) is much higher than El Niño following La Niña.

            Dr. Klotzbach is well-known for his seasonal hurricane forecasts but is also an expert on many aspects of tropical meteorology and climatology. He points out,

            While it would certainly be unusual to have another El Niño so quickly on the backs of a previous one, the last El Niño didn’t dissipate as much heat from the equatorial Pacific as the past two major ones (e.g., 1982 and 1997)…I would be pretty surprised if we got a full blown East Pacific El Niño event again in 2017, but I think that another Central Pacific (aka Modoki) event is possible.

            © Copyright Original Source

            Last edited by shunyadragon; 02-11-2017, 08:46 AM.
            Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
            Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
            But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

            go with the flow the river knows . . .

            Frank

            I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
              The qualification of 'may come back' is important. I will take a 'cautious wait and see' view, because the transition period between El Nino and La Nina can be longer or less clear tan expected.
              Yes... it says something like that in the extracts I included already. See the bit in the BOM extract: "Half the models surveyed suggest strong warming may occur during autumn, with five reaching El Niño thresholds by mid to late winter. It must be noted that this outlook straddles the autumn predictability barrier—typically the ENSO transition period—during which most models have their lowest forecast accuracy."

              That ENSO outlook from BOM Australia also included a nice graph showing the large spread of model projections.
              20170131.poama_nino34.jpg

              About this time last year, in your previous thread, I made a guesstimate for 2016 global anomaly msg #2 of thread "The weather for 2016". Couldn't do the same this year; situation much more murky. But it's interesting to see that the range of short term projections do include this possibility.

              Cheers -- sylas

              Comment


              • #8
                January results are in at GISS:
                https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/t...LB.Ts+dSST.txt

                3rd highest January on record, even though we've entered neutral/weak La Niña conditions.

                The striking thing about this century so far (to me at least) has been that La Niñas no longer seem to trigger colder global temperatures; rather, they lead to periods of stabilization. Curious to see how well that pattern holds after such a strong El Niño.
                "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by TheLurch View Post
                  The striking thing about this century so far (to me at least) has been that La Niñas no longer seem to trigger colder global temperatures; rather, they lead to periods of stabilization. Curious to see how well that pattern holds after such a strong El Niño.
                  What do you mean? 2011 and 2012 were colder than 2010, while 2008 was colder than 2007.
                  Find my speling strange? I'm trying this out: Simplified Speling. Feel free to join me.

                  "Nature has placed mankind under the governance of two sovereign masters, pain and pleasure. It is for them alone to point out what we ought to do, as well as to determine what we shall do."-Jeremy Bentham

                  "We question all our beliefs, except for the ones that we really believe in, and those we never think to question."-Orson Scott Card

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by stfoskey15 View Post
                    What do you mean? 2011 and 2012 were colder than 2010, while 2008 was colder than 2007.
                    I mean they're within a narrow range, rather than seeing a big drop back to conditions similar to those prior to the last big El Niño.
                    "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by stfoskey15 View Post
                      What do you mean? 2011 and 2012 were colder than 2010, while 2008 was colder than 2007.
                      It is the overall trend in the el nino/la nina cycle and not certain years cooler (colder?) than others. My view of the trend is that the future la nina years will be warmer than previous la nina years. This year may be a farly warm year, and represent a transitional year, if we do enter the la nina part of the cycle.
                      Last edited by shunyadragon; 02-23-2017, 03:46 PM.
                      Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                      Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                      But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                      go with the flow the river knows . . .

                      Frank

                      I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Source: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/03/02/uah-global-temperature-report-february-2017-warmest-in-39-years/


                        UAH Global Temperature Report: February 2017 warmest in 39 years
                        Anthony Watts / 5 days ago March 2, 2017
                        February 2017 Global Temperature Report – Contiguous U.S. has warmest February in past 39 Years

                        Notes on data released March 2, 2017:
                        The 2015-16 El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event has faded into history, but the globe still saw its fourth warmest February in the satellite global temperature record, including the warmest February in that time for the contiguous 48 U.S. states, according to Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. The average temperature over the U.S. was 2.1 Celsius (about 3.78 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than seasonal norms in February 2017.

                        © Copyright Original Source

                        Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                        Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                        But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                        go with the flow the river knows . . .

                        Frank

                        I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Wait! Reports and rumors of the demise of the El Nino may be wishful thinking! The previous UAH reference got the temp data right, but speculation on the passing of the El Nino may be wrong. If the trend continues this will be the record shortest La Nina in recorded history.

                          Source: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/february-2017-enso-update-bye-bye-la-ni%C3%B1a


                          February 2017 ENSO update: bye-bye, La Niña!
                          Author: Emily Becker
                          February 9, 2017

                          Well, that was quick! The ocean surface in the tropical Pacific is close to average for this time of year, putting an end to La Niña, and forecasters expect that it will hover around average for a few months. Let’s dig in to what happened during January, and what the forecast looks like.

                          Not with a bang
                          This La Niña wasn’t exactly one for the record books. Our primary index, the three-month-average sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Niño3.4 region, only dipped to about 0.8°C cooler than the long-term average during the fall of 2016. However, these cooler-than-average temperatures persisted for several months, and the atmosphere over the tropical Pacific responded as expected to the cooler waters. Namely, during the fall and winter to date, the Walker Circulation was strengthened: stronger near-surface east-to-west trade winds, stronger upper-level west-to-east winds, more rain than usual over Indonesia, and less rain over the central Pacific.

                          © Copyright Original Source

                          Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                          Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                          But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                          go with the flow the river knows . . .

                          Frank

                          I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Temperature records for March 2017

                            Source: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-201703


                            During March, the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 46.2°F, 4.7°F above the 20th century average. Record and near-record warmth spanned the West and Great Plains, with below-average temperatures in the Northeast. The year-to-date contiguous U.S. average temperature was 40.3°F, 5.1°F above average. This was the second warmest January–March on record, behind the record of 41.4°F set in 2012.

                            The March precipitation total was 2.56 inches, 0.05 inch above the 20th century average, and ranked near the middle of the 123-year period of record. Much-above-average precipitation across the Northwest offset much-below-average precipitation in the Southeast. Warm and windy conditions across the South created ideal wildfire conditions with over 2 million acres burning during March—a new record for the month. The year-to-date contiguous U.S. precipitation total was 8.09 inches, 1.13 inches above average. This ranked as the 10th wettest January–March on record and wettest since 1998.

                            This monthly summary is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides to government, business, academia, and the public to support informed decision-making.

                            © Copyright Original Source

                            Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                            Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                            But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                            go with the flow the river knows . . .

                            Frank

                            I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Source: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/04/uah-global-temperature-update-for-march-2017-0-19-deg-c/


                              UAH Global Temperature Update for March, 2017: +0.19 deg. C
                              April 3rd, 2017 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
                              The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for March, 2017 was +0.19 deg. C, down from the February, 2017 value of +0.35 deg. C (click for full size version):


                              The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 15 months are:

                              YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPICS
                              2016 01 +0.54 +0.69 +0.39 +0.84
                              2016 02 +0.83 +1.16 +0.50 +0.98
                              2016 03 +0.73 +0.94 +0.52 +1.08
                              2016 04 +0.71 +0.85 +0.58 +0.93
                              2016 05 +0.54 +0.64 +0.44 +0.71
                              2016 06 +0.33 +0.50 +0.17 +0.37
                              2016 07 +0.39 +0.48 +0.29 +0.47
                              2016 08 +0.43 +0.55 +0.31 +0.49
                              2016 09 +0.44 +0.49 +0.38 +0.37
                              2016 10 +0.40 +0.42 +0.39 +0.46
                              2016 11 +0.45 +0.40 +0.50 +0.37
                              2016 12 +0.24 +0.18 +0.30 +0.21
                              2017 01 +0.30 +0.26 +0.33 +0.07
                              2017 02 +0.35 +0.54 +0.15 +0.05
                              2017 03 +0.19 +0.30 +0.07 +0.03

                              The cooling in March occurred virtually everywhere, with 23 of the 26 subregions we track having cooler anomalies than in February.

                              The UAH LT global anomaly image for March, 2017 should be available in the next few days here.

                              © Copyright Original Source

                              Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                              Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                              But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                              go with the flow the river knows . . .

                              Frank

                              I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                              Comment

                              Related Threads

                              Collapse

                              Topics Statistics Last Post
                              Started by Hypatia_Alexandria, 03-18-2024, 12:15 PM
                              48 responses
                              135 views
                              0 likes
                              Last Post Sparko
                              by Sparko
                               
                              Started by Sparko, 03-07-2024, 08:52 AM
                              16 responses
                              74 views
                              0 likes
                              Last Post shunyadragon  
                              Started by rogue06, 02-28-2024, 11:06 AM
                              6 responses
                              46 views
                              0 likes
                              Last Post shunyadragon  
                              Working...
                              X