The game-changing effect of the plummeting price of photovoltaic power

[One Bad Pig]

More appear to be warming up to it. There was a pronounced dip in support following the Fukushima disaster in Japan but that didn't last long.

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The problem is that the opponents are extremely vocal, and make the permitting process so onerous that it's not worth making the attempt.

[Sparko]

Liberals like to talk about energy independence, but they don't really mean it. They oppose pipelines that could make us free from foreign oil, they fight against nuclear power. They oppose ocean drilling, fracking, natural gas, and any other means to make us energy independent. Then they support the most inefficient energy methods that cost the most and produce the least, like solar and wind and other impractical methods. That way they can pay lip service to energy independence while not actually have to support it for real.

[Mountain Man]

Oil is used for more than energy, so there would still be some demand even if solar could completely replace it for energy generation. I'm all for less dependence on oil, though we'll still need alternatives to solar and wind power because they are not always available.

Dependence on oil is not the problem. It's dependence on foreign oil.

[Mountain Man]

Liberals like to talk about energy independence, but they don't really mean it. They oppose pipelines that could make us free from foreign oil, they fight against nuclear power. They oppose ocean drilling, fracking, natural gas, and any other means to make us energy independent. Then they support the most inefficient energy methods that cost the most and produce the least, like solar and wind and other impractical methods. That way they can pay lip service to energy independence while not actually have to support it for real.

You have to understand that liberals and environmentalists don't consider humans to be a natural part of the environment, so literally anything we do that has any kind of environmental impact is inherently bad as far as they're concerned. They won't be happy until the human population is living in caves and slowly dying out from starvation.

[Meh Gerbil]

That is still just a battery. You have to feed it electricity to charge it up. Solar ain't gonna do it very efficiently. You might need to charge it for a week or two just to get a day of actual use out of it.

You can build a solar grid large enough to get an entire day's worth of electricity in a few hours.
Currently that technology and so forth stands around 30K for a 2,000 sq ft. home, dependent of course, upon the region.

If the prices keep dropping this is going to become very tempting.

[One Bad Pig]

Dependence on oil is not the problem. It's dependence on foreign oil.

Oil, regardless of its source, is a finite resource.

[Sparko]

Oil, regardless of its source, is a finite resource.

Maybe not forever. They are working on artificial petroleum and fuels. http://www.forbes.com/sites/christop.../#310bfcc77245

[One Bad Pig]

Maybe not forever. They are working on artificial petroleum and fuels. http://www.forbes.com/sites/christop.../#310bfcc77245

Yes, you can make oil, but it's not exactly a cheap or efficient process IIRC.

[Sparko]

Yes, you can make oil, but it's not exactly a cheap or efficient process IIRC.

I am still holding out for Nuclear Power. Side benefit: Superpowers!

[Meh Gerbil]

Oil, regardless of its source, is a finite resource.

Unless it isn't: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abioge...troleum_origin
Let's hope.

[rogue06]

Unless it isn't: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abioge...troleum_origin
Let's hope.

Little evidence to support it and since biomarkers found in hydrocarbons have an organic origin...

[Sparko]

Geothermal power is the answer.

All we need to do is put a dome over Washington DC and collect the hot air and use it to turn turbines.

[Mountain Man]

Oil, regardless of its source, is a finite resource.

I'm sure a viable source of energy will be discovered long before we actually run out. Realistically, we're looking at decades if not centuries before a lack of oil will become a critical concern.

[Raphael]

I was shocked to read in passing that "The cost of solar has fallen by 85% in the past 7 years". I had known the costs of solar power were decreasing, but that rate of change is completely game-changing.

This Vox article in Aug 2016 gives these graphs:





The first graph does show approximately an 85% drop over 7 years, while the second one suggests a ~65% drop over 7 years. But the drop is very significant either way.

And the dropping price looks set to continue, with these articles predicting:
Solar Costs Will Fall Another 40% In 2 Years. Here’s Why.
Solar panel costs predicted to fall 10% a year
10% a year amounts to a 57% over an 8 year period, while 40% every 2 years amounts to an 80% drop over 8 years.

Of course the downside of rapidly dropping prices, is that you don't really want to spend money installing solar panels now if you know that in a few years time they'll be much cheaper. Likewise investing in solar companies now is likely a bad idea as the dropping price will drive many of them bankrupt (as it did NanoSolar, a much-touted company I was following closely for a while).

However, what I'm interested in discussing here are the hugely disruptive global consequences of the price of solar power continuing to drop. Once solar energy becomes cheaper than oil, people simply aren't going to want to buy oil anymore. Given that Arab nations and large multinational companies like Exxon-Mobil have massive amounts of money (and jobs) tied up in the oil industry, the worldwide failure of that industry and its replacement with solar photovoltaics seems like it has the potential to cause worldwide disruption.

Solarcity has an option that will do an install where the gear remains theirs, and you pay a small monthly fee with no other costs. BUT you can't have a battery option for that one, so they recommend it for people who use most of their electricity during the day (so not anybody who works during the day).

Their other option starts at about $7,400 for an install + starting $13,000 for the battery. So minimum of $20,400. (inverter warranty is 10 years so lets say 10 year lifespan so depreciates at $2000/year ... I'm paying about $3000/year for electricity...but not sure if I can produce enough solar from my roof to cover total usage.)

SO the price is definitely coming down, finally below the point where by the time it's paid for itself (in cost savings) it's going to be at end of life (which is where it was about a year or two back when some friends of mine had solar installed).

The capital outlay (for the Solar Classic) is still above what most can afford to fit to their houses, but could probably be including in new build costs.

[Jedidiah]

Except when the disaster is due to weather, where it is cloudy for days and no sun. Or in the winter when it us usually overcast and again, no sun. Or at night, when there is um, no sun.

Or in parts of the nation with very little sun for a large part of the year. I would be interested in seeing an over all cost including installation and maintenance/repair costs over time, and reliable productivity for all year (especially for the Anchorage Alaska region).