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I was shocked to read in passing that "The cost of solar has fallen by 85% in the past 7 years". I had known the costs of solar power were decreasing, but that rate of change is completely game-changing.
This Vox article in Aug 2016 gives these graphs:
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/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6985779/lbnl-2016-pv-prices.png)
The first graph does show approximately an 85% drop over 7 years, while the second one suggests a ~65% drop over 7 years. But the drop is very significant either way.
And the dropping price looks set to continue, with these articles predicting:
Solar Costs Will Fall Another 40% In 2 Years. Here’s Why.
Solar panel costs predicted to fall 10% a year
10% a year amounts to a 57% over an 8 year period, while 40% every 2 years amounts to an 80% drop over 8 years.
Of course the downside of rapidly dropping prices, is that you don't really want to spend money installing solar panels now if you know that in a few years time they'll be much cheaper. Likewise investing in solar companies now is likely a bad idea as the dropping price will drive many of them bankrupt (as it did NanoSolar, a much-touted company I was following closely for a while).
However, what I'm interested in discussing here are the hugely disruptive global consequences of the price of solar power continuing to drop. Once solar energy becomes cheaper than oil, people simply aren't going to want to buy oil anymore. Given that Arab nations and large multinational companies like Exxon-Mobil have massive amounts of money (and jobs) tied up in the oil industry, the worldwide failure of that industry and its replacement with solar photovoltaics seems like it has the potential to cause worldwide disruption.
This Vox article in Aug 2016 gives these graphs:
The first graph does show approximately an 85% drop over 7 years, while the second one suggests a ~65% drop over 7 years. But the drop is very significant either way.
And the dropping price looks set to continue, with these articles predicting:
Solar Costs Will Fall Another 40% In 2 Years. Here’s Why.
Solar panel costs predicted to fall 10% a year
10% a year amounts to a 57% over an 8 year period, while 40% every 2 years amounts to an 80% drop over 8 years.
Of course the downside of rapidly dropping prices, is that you don't really want to spend money installing solar panels now if you know that in a few years time they'll be much cheaper. Likewise investing in solar companies now is likely a bad idea as the dropping price will drive many of them bankrupt (as it did NanoSolar, a much-touted company I was following closely for a while).
However, what I'm interested in discussing here are the hugely disruptive global consequences of the price of solar power continuing to drop. Once solar energy becomes cheaper than oil, people simply aren't going to want to buy oil anymore. Given that Arab nations and large multinational companies like Exxon-Mobil have massive amounts of money (and jobs) tied up in the oil industry, the worldwide failure of that industry and its replacement with solar photovoltaics seems like it has the potential to cause worldwide disruption.
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