Far right Le Pen and Centrist Macron through to second round of French election

[Darth Executor]

Most Jews are left wing so the left cannot be anti-semitic.

[Mountain Man]

He was one of the few guys who was pointing out that Trump actually did have a real shot at winning the presidency (giving him odds of about 30%) and was criticizing other sources that were pretty much counting him out entirely.

So 30% odds is considered "a real chance of winning"?

"Here, take this pill. There's a 30% chance it's not poison."

Would you take that bet?

[Terraceth]

So 30% odds is considered "a real chance of winning"?

Erm... yes? In what way isn't it a real chance of winning? It's about the odds of rolling a 1 or 2 on a die, and if I roll a die I certainly have a reasonable chance of it landing on a 1 or a 2. It might be less likely than landing on 3, 4, 5, or 6, but it's hardly surprising if it lands on a 1 or 2 rather than those other four numbers.

No one, after rolling a 6-sided die, stands in disbelief if it lands on a 1 because while it's much more likely to land on something other than that, it's not any sort of amazement when it does land on 1. And that, at 17%, is a lower chance.

"Here, take this pill. There's a 30% chance it's not poison."

Would you take that bet?

This is totally irrelevant, because you're moving from probabilities to the act of betting in which case the value of winning must be measured against the value of losing. For example, betting $1 for a 10% chance to win $100 is a good bet, but betting $1 for a 1% chance of winning $10 is not. Weighing the value of winning (no value, at least according to your statement) versus the value of losing (being poisoned), there is simply no reason to do that. It's like someone offering to roll a die with the conditions "if it's an even number, you give me $10. If it's an odd number, nothing happens." It makes no sense to take that because there is literally nothing to gain.