Economic Collapse: the breakdown

[seanD]

Wow, are you ever confused!!! Bernanke is just following the right prescription: recession + printing money → stabilizing prices. Governments cannot control the economy. The economy is far too big for any government, including the US government. It's like the elephant in the room: you can manage it, fine tune it, give it a slight push in one or the other direction, but on the whole, seven billion people respond to thousands of factors that make them decide if they are going to spend or hoard their money, and governments have to deal with that monster. READ: It's the economy that drives Bernanke to increase the money supply, not the other way around.

The prices weren't stabilized in 2008, which is why they crashed... the market was in a bubble. That isn't price stabilization, you jackass. Attempting to inflate the prices back to 2008 level is a bubble re-inflation, not price stabilization. This is the crux of the what you don't understand. But other than your laughably false claim that stimulus – which is inflationary – “stabilizes prices,” explain to me how anything else you said about government is different than anything I basically said in the post you quoted. Btw, if I was confused, then none of my forecasts in the OP would be coming true. Likewise, if you weren’t the ignorant jackass you are, you wouldn’t have two forecast strikes already against you.

[little_monkey]

The prices weren't stabilized in 2008, which is why they crashed... the market was in a bubble.

Correction: it was a bubble in the housing sector. It spread into a financial crisis because of the repeal of Glass–Steagall Act in 1999, btw thanks to Phil Gramm, which allowed the banks to bet in derivatives and securitize those toxic mortgages.

That isn't price stabilization, you jackass.

Thanks for the lame insult. LOL.

Attempting to inflate the prices back to 2008 level is a bubble re-inflation, not price stabilization.

There goes your wacko conspiracy theory. No one is attempting to inflate back to 2008 level. It's an attempt to avoid a 1930's style depression, which has worked so far to some degree in spite of the Republicans trying to sabotage the economy. Mind you, I don't blame them -- any improvement in the economy would sorely dim their prospect of winning the election in November.

This is the crux of the what you don't understand. But other than your laughably false claim that stimulus – which is inflationary – “stabilizes prices,”

Only in a recession, will increasing the money supply stabilize prices. If the economy is growing at a considerable pace then what you get is;

Fast-growing economy → inflating prices
Printing money → inflating prices

Therefore,

fast-growing economy+ printing money → hyper-inflation

In that case, printing money would be the wrong prescription. But we are in a recession/low growth period, in case you've forgotten.

explain to me how anything else you said about government is different than anything I basically said in the post you quoted. Btw, if I was confused, then none of my forecasts in the OP would be coming true.

Your prediction is way off. There's no hyper-inflation in sight.

The only reasonable possibility is a double-dip recession, and that could take place if any austerity program were to be put in place, which can happen if the Republicans gain control of the government and have their way.

[seanD]

Inflating back to 2008 asset hikes is not a conspiracy theory, you idiot. It's common sense based what has been happening, which is why the equity and commodity market soared back to 2008-like price values, in spite of the fact that all the other numbers showed that we were in a recession. And if you notice the title of the thread, it’s “Economic Collapse,” which means this can happen in two ways with a variety of causes. Hyperinflation was one of the long term scenarios I forecasted as part of the crash. But I also pointed out our debt and the derivative market, both of which can be a catalyst of a crash scenario. One way or another, it’s all going to crash, either deflation (which will be nothing like it was in the 30’s because the economic situation and world markets are under unprecedented circumstance today than back then) or hyperinflation, or even hyper-stagflation. I happen to believe it will be the latter because world banks are doing everything in their power to keep the asset markets inflated, which will inevitably result in the latter.

[little_monkey]

Inflating back to 2008 asset hikes is not a conspiracy theory, you idiot.

More lame insults. Why don't you invest into buying a thesaurus, perhaps with better juicy terms, you could spice up your post. LOL.

It's common sense based what has been happening, which is why the equity and commodity market soared back to 2008-like price values, in spite of the fact that all the other numbers showed that we were in a recession.

Again, putting the cart in front of the horse. The equity and commodity went up because the economy has grown since 2009.

See: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/unit...tes/gdp-growth

And if you notice the title of the thread, it’s “Economic Collapse,” which means this can happen in two ways with a variety of causes. Hyperinflation was one of the long term scenarios I forecasted as part of the crash.

There's no economic collapse in sight.

But I also pointed out our debt and the derivative market, both of which can be a catalyst of a crash scenario. One way or another, it’s all going to crash, either deflation (which will be nothing like it was in the 30’s because the economic situation and world markets are under unprecedented circumstance today than back then) or hyperinflation, or even hyper-stagflation. I happen to believe it will be the latter because world banks are doing everything in their power to keep the asset markets inflated, which will inevitably result in the latter.

Deflation? No.
Hyper-inflation? No.
Hyper-stagflation? Again no.

Instead we have inflation at 2.7%, GDP growing at 2.2%, and unemployment at 8.1%. Modest numbers, and nothing catastrophic.

Try again.

[seanD]

GDP is affected by QE, which is why it rose each time QE was in session, both in 2010 and the end of 2011, and then crashed back to earth after the fact. The first session of QE-2 and GDP was the beginning of your forecast stupidity that you displayed in post #9 (we've through this before and had a whole conversation about that, you mental case). I hardly ever resort to name calling until now, because you deserve it. Classifying observation and common sense as a conspiracy theory reflects your own idiocy but it won’t help your idiocy, nor will I let you use it to obfuscate the facts you obviously don’t understand. A few days back, you also said my argument that they’re skewing the unemployment numbers was a conspiracy theory (even in spite of the fact, this was reported in the MSM). Well, take a look at the numbers today, douchebag.

[seanD]

Btw, I love how you claim that GDP is up 2.2% and don't even know that they revised it down to 1.9%, even though it shows this right on the chart you linked to. Sheesh, man.

[little_monkey]

GDP is affected by QE, which is why it rose each time QE was in session, both in 2010 and the end of 2011, and then crashed back to earth after the fact.

That's true, and that's why monetary policies as QE's, under the Fed's authority, are insufficient to tackle a recession, especially if it is a deep recession as the one after the financial crisis of 2008. What was needed in addition to that QE was a stimulus package, which only Congress can pass. After the 750 billion stimulus package, the GDP bounced back in 2010, but that was not enough, what was needed was another stimulus package but that was made impossible with the Republicans taking over Congress in 2010 and their open policy of obstructionism. As I said on page 1, the problems in the US is not the economy but the political diviseness.

The first session of QE-2 and GDP was the beginning of your forecast stupidity that you displayed in post #9 (we've through this before and had a whole conversation about that, you mental case).

I guess you never bought that thesaurus. Your insults are as lame as it gets.

Reread post #110. That forecast came from a rightwing website, the kind you like.

BTW, it's your forecast of an economic collapse that is under scrutiny, not what that rightwing website said in the past, or whatever revisions they will make in the future.

I hardly ever resort to name calling until now, because you deserve it.

Lame insults.

Classifying observation and common sense as a conspiracy theory reflects your own idiocy but it won’t help your idiocy, nor will I let you use it to obfuscate the facts you obviously don’t understand.

More lame.

A few days back, you also said my argument that they’re skewing the unemployment numbers was a conspiracy theory (even in spite of the fact, this was reported in the MSM). Well, take a look at the numbers today, douchebag.

Yep, and you believe that revising it from 8.1% to 8.2% MUST be a definite sign that your forecast of hyper-inflation/economic collapse is on its way. LOL.

Btw, I love how you claim that GDP is up 2.2% and don't even know that they revised it down to 1.9%, even though it shows this right on the chart you linked to. Sheesh, man.

Economic numbers are always under revision. It's part of the territory, but those revisions don't contradict what I said in that post "Modest numbers, and nothing catastrophic."

[seanD]

Anyone following the global economic situation is well aware that all countries with major economies -- Japan, China, EU, US -- are experiencing contractions and economic problems and even civil unrest, which is indicative of a major economic collapse and the chain reaction this is having on a global basis. So, in regards to the OP, the economic collapse is not going to happen; it's happening now. It's just that all these governments, ALL of them, are doing everything they can to postpone it, which is why it's happening slowly, and is why the crisis seems like it temporarily disappears only to come back over and over again worse each time.

[little_monkey]

Anyone following the global economic situation is well aware that all countries with major economies -- Japan, China, EU, US -- are experiencing contractions and economic problems and even civil unrest, which is indicative of a major economic collapse and the chain reaction this is having on a global basis. So, in regards to the OP, the economic collapse is not going to happen; it's happening now. It's just that all these governments, ALL of them, are doing everything they can to postpone it, which is why it's happening slowly, and is why the crisis seems like it temporarily disappears only to come back over and over again worse each time.

Just to remind you, your OP was posted on February 27th 2011, and today is April 18th, 2013, where's your economic collapse? your hyper-inflation?

LOL at you, keep up with the ignorance, dude.

[little_monkey]

**FLASH NEWS**

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.2 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

[seanD]

**FLASH NEWS**



http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Just to remind you, your OP was posted on February 27th 2011, and today is April 18th, 2013, where's your economic collapse? your hyper-inflation?

LOL at you, keep up with the ignorance, dude.

The hyperinflation, the money creation, is in the stock and bond market. And the low interest is keeping it there for the time being. Inflation is also showing in things that aren't measured by CPI, like food and gas, and healthcare is also skyrocketing -- the essentials of life -- food and gas would have counted in the CPI number before it was revised. There's also stealth inflation, where prices may be increasing moderately, but the quantity or quality of the product is decreasing. But the thread is about the collapse of the economic system and hyperinflation was one scenario of that collapse. While the stock and bond market are in bubbles, the numbers show collapsing gradually in the public sector -- i.e. employment, GDP, median household wealth, etc. Personally, I believe the fed will continue to step it up a notch to combat this collapse, which will increase inflation even more.

[little_monkey]

The hyperinflation, the money creation, is in the stock and bond market. And the low interest is keeping it there for the time being. Inflation is also showing in things that aren't measured by CPI, like food and gas, and healthcare is also skyrocketing -- the essentials of life -- food and gas would have counted in the CPI number before it was revised. There's also stealth inflation, where prices may be increasing moderately, but the quantity or quality of the product is decreasing. But the thread is about the collapse of the economic system and hyperinflation was one scenario of that collapse. While the stock and bond market are in bubbles, the numbers show collapsing gradually in the public sector -- i.e. employment, GDP, median household wealth, etc. Personally, I believe the fed will continue to step it up a notch to combat this collapse, which will increase inflation even more.

Duh, no.

Price of gas: http://gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx, click on 1 year
Price of food: http://www.bls.gov/ro3/apmw.htm

Get your facts straightened out.

[seanD]

Duh, no.

Price of gas: http://gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx, click on 1 year
Price of food: http://www.bls.gov/ro3/apmw.htm

Get your facts straightened out.

Yes, it goes through very pronounced dips and climbs from month to month (we discussed this before), but if you look at it from 2008 prior to the bubble burst, it's been steadily climbing back to 2008 levels. What's troubling about this is that other economic numbers -- unemployment, GDP -- are not the same as they were in 2008 prior to the bursting bubble because this climb is due strictly to money creation between that time and now.

[little_monkey]

Yes, it goes through very pronounced dips and climbs from month to month (we discussed this before), but if you look at it from 2008 prior to the bubble burst, it's been steadily climbing back to 2008 levels. What's troubling about this is that other economic numbers -- unemployment, GDP -- are not the same as they were in 2008 prior to the bursting bubble because this climb is due strictly to money creation between that time and now.

Yes, in a falling economy, you want to increase the money supply. That's the way to go. But the GOP has been fighting tooth and nail to obstruct Obama, which they have partly succeeded - Obama is proposing austerity measures, who would have thunk?!? And so the recovery has been snail-paced. There hasn't been any stimulus package since 2009, instead of tax cuts we've got taxes that were slightly increased on Jan1st of this year - but only for the upper 1% top earners - so the only thing going for a better recovery has been Bernanke's pledge to keep the interest low and QE until the unemployment drops to acceptable level. So we've got monetary policies to increase the monetary supply - a good thing -, and fiscal policies - sequestration + austerity budget - to decrease the money supply, a very bad idea. The US has a strange case of dysfunctional bipolarism. Nevertheless, the economy is on a slow recovery mainly because people have recovered from their debt incurred in 2008, the housing sector has shown some positive signs, and manufacturing, due to low energy cost, is making a comeback. It's too bad that Obama is falling for the GOP's pranks on the deficit/debt issue, or should I say non-issue, otherwise we would be in much better shape.

[seanD]

Personally, I believe the fed will continue to step it up a notch to combat this collapse, which will increase inflation even more.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...-tapering.html

Of course. They're in a fierce currency war with Japan. My guess is they're going to double the purchases to about a 150 billion a month.