We don't need another war on the other side of the world

[roadwalker]

Iran.jpg

It's clear that any war between the U.S. and Iran would be fought in or near Iran, not the U.S.

The justifications given for such a war are thin:

1. Oil. But the U.S. has become a net petroleum exporter, and if we wanted to free ourselves of oil that goes through the Strait of Hormuz, we could do so by keeping our own production at home.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/indust...oom/52053236/1

Most of the oil that goes through the Strait of Hormuz goes to China or Europe anyway. If the Chinese and Europeans think it's that important then let them go fight for it. We can't afford another war, and we just recently got out of Iraq where we wasted a trillion dollars and lost over 4000 Americans for no real benefit.

2. Iran might make a nuke. Guess what, the technology to make nuclear weapons is almost 70 years old! To suppose that we will prevent any country that wants to make a nuke from making one, is absurd. SInce Iran has domestic supplies of uranium, they already are past step 1 (yellowcake) and even as much as we (or Israel) can slow them down, an Iranian nuke is inevitable. AND WHAT IF IT IS? We survived a nuclear Soviet Union for decades. Contrary to popular belief, the mullahs who are the real power in Iran are not suicidal maniacs. They are politicians who are intent on preserving their own power. Hard to see how a nuclear war would do that.

In fact, the biggest threat to Iran is not external. It's internal. A large majority of Iranians were born after the revolution and have little or no memory of the Shah or Ayatollah Khomeini. They detest living under the strictures of an Islamic society. Despite the propaganda that they get on the news every night, I've met a number of younger Iranians online and they do not hate America or believe that America is evil. Why give the regime an excuse to rally the country against us (something they haven't had since the 1980's) and consolidate their rule by cracking down on dissent under the cover of a war?

[seanD]

Most of the oil that goes through the Strait of Hormuz goes to China or Europe anyway.

I think you just answered your own question here. It's oil, but it's more strategic than oil. Most people don't realize there's a fierce currency and trade war taking place between the east and the west right now. So there's no reason to think there isn't a covert cold war taking place between the east and the west. In this scenario, the US is being the clear military aggressor of the two.

[roadwalker]

I think you just answered your own question here. It's oil, but it's more strategic than oil. Most people don't realize there's a fierce currency and trade war taking place between the east and the west right now. So there's no reason to think there isn't a covert cold war taking place between the east and the west. In this scenario, the US is being the clear military aggressor of the two.

Well then we are really being pretty dumb about how we fight it. We spend trillions in American money to ensure stability and the supply of resources to China, and then we borrow from them to pay for it. Stop and contemplate what complete chumps that makes us.

[Raphael]

The only problem is the Iranian President is a madman who believes he is destined to bring about Amageddon and so usher the triumphant return of the 12th Imam.

I think if at all possible he should be stopped from achieving that goal. Don't you?

[seanD]

Well then we are really being pretty dumb about how we fight it. We spend trillions in American money to ensure stability and the supply of resources to China, and then we borrow from them to pay for it. Stop and contemplate what complete chumps that makes us.

I think that China is realizing the kind of chumps they've been. They're a whole lot smarter than brain-dead Americans, which is why Chinese students laughed at Geithner when he vowed that the US was good on its debt obligations. And so they're smart enough to realize there's no way that it is mathematically possible we could ever pay them back what we owe, nor do we intend to. I'm almost under the impression the US is doing that intentionally just to piss them off with all the wars in the Middle East and Africa, places where China has staked serious investments. It would be analogous to me borrowing money from Joe that I have no way of ever paying, and instead of even attempting to pay him back, I use what money I have to spend it on lavish items that I don't need; and then on top of that, I actually force my way into some of Joe's other financial investments and enterprises in order to disrupt it just for good measure. We're the type of country that has no qualms about getting a wild dog into a corner and then continually throwing sticks at it to get it to attack, and then when it does attack, we shoot it and argue we were justified for doing it. That's essentially what we've become. But that's just the overall general crux of the situation just based on observation. There are a lot of detailed nuances to that that can get pretty conspiratorial in nature and aren't as easy to prove.

[roadwalker]

The only problem is the Iranian President is a madman who believes he is destined to bring about Amageddon and so usher the triumphant return of the 12th Imam.

I think if at all possible he should be stopped from achieving that goal. Don't you?

1) He's not a madman. He's a politician, and just like American politicians, sometimes it serves his ends to behave deranged.

2.) His party just suffered huge losses. Very unlikely he'll be re-elected.

3) The President isn't all powerful. The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khameni, is. And by all accounts he is anything but crazy. Very sly, and very anti-American, absolutely. But no question that he's sane.

[roadwalker]

Sean,

I think we could pay them back, but right now they are making money off of just what we pay them to service the debt, plus millions of payments on everything from credit cards to mortgages that flow into Chinese-owned banks.

One silver lining though-- no need to worry about the Chinese trying to invade. The reason you conquer a country is to plunder its wealth, but we are sending it to them already without their having to do anything.

[Teallaura]

1) Iran's ability to affect oil prices is self limiting.

2) Nuclear proliferation isn't as easy as the OP implies and is the least desirable outcome. When everybody has nukes the chances of someone hitting the button sky-rocket.

I'll come back to this this week-end. I don't have time to do anything more right now.

[roadwalker]

1) Iran's ability to affect oil prices is self limiting.

To a degree. Oil markets however are very volatile and overreact to small things. Just the THREAT of a war in the Strait of Hormuz has caused oil to spike from less than $70 a barrel to well over $100 a barrel. I wouldn't be surprised if a real war caused it to jump up over $200, at least for a short time. [I'm SOOOO JEALOUS of your PRIUS!!]

2) Nuclear proliferation isn't as easy as the OP implies and is the least desirable outcome. When everybody has nukes the chances of someone hitting the button sky-rocket.

You are right about it being undesirable and why. That said, I also believe it is not that difficult and is virtually inevitable. Heck, if I had the desire to make a nuke (I DON'T) and the materials to do so, I know people here in town with a good enough machine shop and ability with tools that I could probably cooperate with them to make a working nuke. In other words, it's no secret how to do it. As for having the material (the only real 'bottleneck' in the process) Iran, as I said, has domestic supplies of uranium and mine it themselves, so the first choke point in the process doesn't apply to them. The other choke point, enriching uranium, is where we are at now. Yes, Iran does face some technological challenges in distilling enough Uranium 235 from raw uranium, but no more of a challenge than the U.S. faced in the early 1940's at Oak Ridge. That's why there is so much of a focus on how many centrifuges they have. But ultimately all we can do is slow them down, not prevent them from enriching uranium.

The answer is not an attack, but to bide our time until the next 2009 type moment (probably a mistake then , but the opportunity has passed.) Their problem is internal, and rather than giving the regime an excuse to unite the country and accuse dissidents of being spies, the idea of 'leading from behind,' actually makes a lot of sense if/when Iran experiences another 'arab spring' type protest. Then we would be standing WITH the Iranian people, instead of against them. Heck, the Soviet Union had thousands of giant nuclear weapons, but they did no good to protect them from a revolution.

I'll come back to this this week-end. I don't have time to do anything more right now.

I hope this isn't one of those "How do you keep a moron in suspense?" type of questions, as I wait on pins and needles.

[Teallaura]

Sorry, I didn't get the time I thought I'd have - no, I'm not trying to make you wait. I will get back to it but when I have enough time to do a decent job. I've got to look it over again - I think you switched on me but I have to read it carefully and i just don't have the time now (okay, technically, I could make the time but I feel like crud so it still wouldn't work out well).

[roadwalker]

Sorry, I didn't get the time I thought I'd have - no, I'm not trying to make you wait. I will get back to it but when I have enough time to do a decent job. I've got to look it over again - I think you switched on me but I have to read it carefully and i just don't have the time now (okay, technically, I could make the time but I feel like crud so it still wouldn't work out well).

No problem. You need to get feeling better first.

I actually got quite a heated discussion going on this over on FB for a bit, seems to have cooled off.