New Zealand 2017 Election

[Starlight]

either Kiwis have less to worry about when giving government more power

I think this is true. Surveys show that only 12% of kiwis say they "distrust" government institutions.

Personally, I tend to think of the government as my servant. I'm like the pharoah resting on his throne, demanding grapes from my government servant. It's there to provide me with roads, police, healthcare, parks, national parks, clean rivers, etc, and if it gets anything wrong or isn't quick enough about it then I tell it off and demand better next time. Whereas I think a lot of Americans conceive of their government as a dangerous monster that might decide to eat them.

notwithstanding the general slide into the abyss when voting for progressives.

As my friend put it the other day, becoming more progressive is... "a slippery slope down into the abyss of a better and happier world".

[Starlight]

Starlight does say quite a few nutty things

I don't view any of what I say as nutty, but I guess since I view half of what you say as nutty, that fair's fair.

[Starlight]

That would be a flag.

I thought so.

These were the alternative options in the referenda that were shortlisted for the final public vote (middle bottom is existing flag):



Although if this submission had made the finalists, I confess I probably would have voted for it:

[Sparko]

I think the NZ flag needs a hobbit or Smaug on it somewhere.

[Darth Executor]

Since we have a handful of kiwis in this forum it might be worth a thread to discuss the New Zealand general election happening next week (advanced voting is already open, and I have already voted).

For the non-kiwis here I will introduce the contenders. NZ uses a proportional system where people vote for a party and each party's percentage vote share is translated into seats in the 120 seat parliament. Typically about 7 parties get seats and typically a government is formed from a coalition of one of the two major parties together in coalition with one of the two medium-sized parties or a couple of the tiny minor parties.


Major parties (typical vote share ~40% each):

National:
A right-wing party of big-business and farmers. Loves tax cuts, and cutting benefits to poor people, and talking about the economy. Historically a socially conservative party, now split roughly 50/50 between more liberal-leaning atheists (e.g. their previous leader) and more socially conservative Christians (e.g. their current leader). Their previous leader who lead them to great success and won elections for them for 9 years, was wildly popular because of his nice smile, charismatic appearance, and the popular belief that he would be a great guy to have a beer with. After his sudden and unexplained resignation in December last year, the leadership fell to a boring guy who seems a bit uncomfortable in his own skin and who previously in 2002 led the party to its worst ever election result (21%).

Leader Bill English:


Labour:
A center / center-left party historically of unions and working people. Loves spending on government programs. In the 80s it abandoned its historical roots and swung far to the right (past National) in an all-out paroxysm of deregulation and embrace of neoliberalism. It has gradually drifted back towards the left. From 2000-2008 it governed as a moderate and fiscally responsible party generating large surpluses and putting the country in a very good financial position, but doing very little else that could be called 'left-wing'. From 2008 to 2016, it has had leadership issues and gone through 5 leaders, replacing its leader as recently as last month. However the latest leader is wildly popular, and she is a 37 year-old progressive who is polling extremely well, and seems to be taking the party further left back towards its positions of the 1970s and she has explicitly stated her rejection of the neoliberalism of the 80s-2000s. Jeremy Corbyn of UK fame has endorsed her.

Leader Jacinda Ardern:




Medium-sized parties (typical vote share ~10% each):

New Zealand First:
A populist party in the style of the "Make America Great Again" campaign of Trump. Anti-immigration, a tad of racism, anti-trade agreements, economic protectionism, coupled with a desire for improved healthcare, improved superannuation etc. This party often espouses conservative moral positions (e.g. was the only party to vote 100% against same sex marriage) while combining them with left-wing economic positions (e.g. wanting to spend more on government programs). This is the party that racist grandmas everywhere love. Its leader is a bit of a roguish scoundrel who revels in finding government scandals he can harp on about, while occasionally being involved in some sort of corruption scandal himself. His political reputation was permanently tarred when he campaigned one election against National and then promptly went into a coalition with them immediately after the election, leading many people to see him as a selfish person who is more interested in himself and power for himself than he is in his policies.

Leader Winston Peters:


Green:
A progressive party concerned about the environment, social justice, and economic inequality. Largely identical to Green parties in the US and UK. The Greens were polling at their highest ever amount (15%) until a couple of months ago when a scandal hit one of their leaders and she resigned (the Greens always have two leaders, a male and a female), leaving them with only 1 leader this election. He is well-liked however and combines a business background with good speaking skills.

Leader James Shaw:



Here is how PoliticalCompass.org plots the parties:


Polling: Polls have been a bit varied, a poll from today has National 40, Labour 40, Greens 9, NZ First 6. If I were a betting man, I would place my money on the next government being a Labour + Greens + possibly a minor party, but it could well be National + NZ First + possibly a minor party.

I'm personally excited because if we get at Labour + Green government, it will be the first time the Greens have ever been in government (I typically vote Green and did this election), and Labour is currently the most left-leaning and progressive that it has been since the 70s, so NZ would then have the most left/progressive government of my lifetime. I assume also that we would also have the youngest leader in NZ history.

Going by their looks:

1. Empty suit
2. Angry hoe
3. Vigilante killer
4. Pedophile serial killer

"In August 2017 Ardern advocated a lower rate of immigration to New Zealand, suggesting a drop of around 20,000–30,000. Calling it an "infrastructure issue", she has argued "there hasn't been enough planning about population growth, we haven't necessarily targeted our skill shortages properly...".[44] However, she wants to increase the intake of refugees.[45]"

IE: She wants to reduce the intake of skilled east asians and increase the intake of pedophiles, rapists, thieves, murderers, etc. I guess this is what Starlight meant by "the left wants to reduce immigration in NZ".

[Darth Executor]

As my friend put it the other day, becoming more white is... "a slippery slope down into the abyss of a better and happier world".

Fixed. As I've argued before, the arguments made in favor of progressivism work much better when made in favor of white supremacy. That's why if one is to be a progressive one should also, to remain intellectually consistent, be an unabashed white supremacist as well.

[Starlight]

Election night results:
National: 58 seats
Labour: 45 seats
NZ First: 9 seats
Green: 7 seats
Act: 1 seat

However there are a lot of 'special votes' (people who voted from overseas, enrolled on the day they voted, or are unusual cases) that will be counted over the next 2 weeks. These usually pull a seat from National and give an extra one to Green, and might do double that this year because there are a lot more of them due to young people being able to register and vote on the same day this election.

To form a government, the parties need to go into a coalition totaling at least 61 seats. Over the next couple of months, the parties will discuss with each other what their conditions for working together are.

Possible government combinations, likelihood as estimated by me:
National + NZ First (54%)
Labour + NZ First + Green (44%)
National + Green (2%)
National + Labour (0.1%)

[demi-conservative]

m personally excited because if we get at Labour + Green government, it will be the first time the Greens have ever been in government (I typically vote Green and did this election), and Labour is currently the most left-leaning and progressive that it has been since the 70s, so NZ would then have the most left/progressive government of my lifetime. I assume also that we would also have the youngest leader in NZ history.

Because so exciting to have another Obama/Trudeau/Macron, looks young, hip, charismatic etc etc but substance is zero!!!!

[Bill the Cat]

But I suggest as an American it is worth you studying superior countries

[Starlight]

That's a big reason the US has become such a failure as a country, because a lot of idiots within it have convinced themselves there is nothing they can learn from other countries.

[Bill the Cat]

That's a big reason the US has become such a failure as a country, because a lot of idiots within it have convinced themselves there is nothing they can learn from other countries.

You have an odd definition of failure...

[Sparko]

That's a big reason the US has become such a failure as a country, because a lot of idiots within it have convinced themselves there is nothing they can learn from other countries.

I have learned that Germany has much better beer than the USA does.

[Bill the Cat]

I find it funny that the US is chided for the Electoral College, especially this year when Hillary "won the popular vote", but in NZ, Jacinda lost the popular vote, yet can still be PM if the coalition chooses Labor to partner with.

[rogue06]

I have learned that Germany has much better beer than the USA does.

The majority of U.S. made beers are inferior. The only exceptions come from the small breweries.

[Sparko]

The majority of U.S. made beers are inferior. The only exceptions come from the small breweries.

Germans have better cakes too.
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