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Nationalists win big in Germany

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Terraceth View Post
    Reading about the situation, it looks like a coalition with the FDP and Greens might be tough to finagle, because the Greens and the FDP are diametrically opposed on some major issues, and have never been in a coalition with each other. Now from what I've read, the three will probably form an awkward coalition anyway, but again it's not assured. This is why I'm puzzled as to why news articles all talked about Merkel winning re-election when it's not a certainty she can get a coalition going to stay prime minister.
    Well the news articles are clearly naive and wrong, since it's not a certainty that she will succeed at forming a stable government.

    It's a relatively similar case in the UK where Theresa May technically 'won' but the coalition govt is so unstable that betting agencies were offering > 50% odds on the govt collapsing within 2 years and a new election occuring.
    "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
    "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
    "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

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    • #17
      So it was just a premature, "Dewey Defeats Truman" situation? Okay. (well, except in this case, Dewey could defeat Truman depending on how things turn out, but at any rate it was a premature proclamation)

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      • #18
        One option for Merkel, given her potential allies dislike each other, and because she does technically also have SPD and AfD there is to try and form what is called a Minority Government. That is when the governing coalition has <50% of seats, and hence to pass any particular policy they need to agree on a case by case basis with whatever group of other parties are prepared to join them in support of the particular policy. To get a minority govt you need to get some of the opposition parties to vote for you in the confidence and supply votes (the "yes, a government exists" vote). Often small parties will offer to provide confidence and supply in exchange for you agreeing to pass a couple of their favorite policies.

        Of course, the Greens might refuse to provide confidence and supply in an effort to force Merkel to openly ally with AfD in order to try to make her lose future elections due to association with them, or might simply wish to try and collapse the coalition talks to force a new election immediately, since from the sounds of it AfD's leadership has manged to impode already, so forcing a new election might get them completely out of parliament again if they are currently so chaotic they can't properly campaign.
        "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
        "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
        "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Starlight View Post
          One option for Merkel, given her potential allies dislike each other, and because she does technically also have SPD and AfD there is to try and form what is called a Minority Government. That is when the governing coalition has <50% of seats, and hence to pass any particular policy they need to agree on a case by case basis with whatever group of other parties are prepared to join them in support of the particular policy. To get a minority govt you need to get some of the opposition parties to vote for you in the confidence and supply votes (the "yes, a government exists" vote). Often small parties will offer to provide confidence and supply in exchange for you agreeing to pass a couple of their favorite policies.

          Of course, the Greens might refuse to provide confidence and supply in an effort to force Merkel to openly ally with AfD in order to try to make her lose future elections due to association with them, or might simply wish to try and collapse the coalition talks to force a new election immediately, since from the sounds of it AfD's leadership has manged to impode already, so forcing a new election might get them completely out of parliament again if they are currently so chaotic they can't properly campaign.
          It seems to me that a potential drawback of this sort of system is instances of the tail wagging the dog, where a small minority can bring down the entire government.
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          • #20
            Originally posted by One Bad Pig View Post
            It seems to me that a potential drawback of this sort of system is instances of the tail wagging the dog, where a small minority can bring down the entire government.
            It stabilizes the institution of democracy by limiting the power of any one person or party. This destabilizes individual governments, meaning more frequent elections can be triggered, and that parties can go through leaders like sets of clothes.

            These systems typically result in more parties (~4-7) than the older plurality systems that are generally limited to 2 parties, and this is normally viewed as a good thing. It means different groups of voters are better represented, voters have more options and aren't stuck with one party who can rely on them to vote for it however badly it behaves or betrays them, and bipartisan policies happen more often because parties know that working together with other parties is the name of the game (and failure to do so might collapse the govt, have the voters blame them, and then they'll lose their seats in the new election).

            Around the world, most US Presidential style systems have failed over time, as they invest too much power in a single person and pave the way for a transition toward a dictatorship, as well as the too many 'checks and balances' combined with a 2 party system means that congress essentially grinds to a halt and becomes unable to pass any legislation. We've seen that in the US with temporary government shutdowns and debt ceiling crises, but it's been even worse in other countries that have tried implementing the US system. For these reasons, parliamentary style democracies have been much more successful around the world, and have a history of successfully preserving democratic institutions even through rough periods where governments collapse, and seem to be generally favored by modern political academics as a result.

            An example of a current problem in the US system is the ongoing questions associated with Trump's election and what influence Russia had in it. Let's say Mueller reports in and says "yes, the election was badly compromised". Unfortunately the US Constitution has no mechanism for holding a new election (I find myself having to keep reminding people in my country who talk to me about this, of this fact. They have a tendency to assume that a finding of serious problems would trigger a new election, because it would here, and so I have to remind them that the US Constitution is a failure in this regard). Republicans in congress would awkwardly need to decide whether to try to impeach Trump or talk him into resigning, but then they just put a new unelected Republican President in to power, and the general populace of voters gets effectively told "yes, Russia tricked you into voting Republican, now you're stuck with a Republican president and there's nothing you can do about it." Whereas in a parliamentary system, any coalition partners of the governing party would respond to such a revelation by withdrawing their support for the government and thus forcing an election to take place within the month, thus preserving the institution of democracy by putting the populace back in the drivers' seat, or possibly even cause the Governor General or equivalent to intervene (Governor General is an almost purely ceremonial official who has the power to call a new election if something has gone horribly wrong... has never happened in NZ history, has happened once in Australian history. Basically there are multiple mechanisms that exist here to trigger new elections if something goes wrong with the govt.). e.g. Iceland this month where a scandal involving misuse of the pardon power made the coalition partner decide to dissolve the govt and they will have new elections next month as a result.
            Last edited by Starlight; 09-28-2017, 04:33 PM.
            "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
            "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
            "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

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            • #21
              So, it seems that, despite trying to negotiate even past the supposed deadline, coalition talks have fallen through (the FDP pulled out, with their leader giving the somewhat memorable statement of, and this is an exact quote, "It is better not to rule than to rule falsely. Goodbye!"). This means that Germany has no actual majority government--a first since World War II. Either the CSU/CDU (and possibly also the Greens) will have to govern in minority, which means having to find a majority on each individual issue to get laws passed, or the whole election will get done over. From what I've read, it seems the former is more likely.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by Terraceth View Post
                So, it seems that, despite trying to negotiate even past the supposed deadline, coalition talks have fallen through (the FDP pulled out, with their leader giving the somewhat memorable statement of, and this is an exact quote, "It is better not to rule than to rule falsely. Goodbye!"). This means that Germany has no actual majority government--a first since World War II. Either the CSU/CDU (and possibly also the Greens) will have to govern in minority, which means having to find a majority on each individual issue to get laws passed, or the whole election will get done over. From what I've read, it seems the former is more likely.
                I've read that a good deal of the problems stem from widely different views wrt immigration.

                I'm always still in trouble again

                "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
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                • #23
                  Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                  I've read that a good deal of the problems stem from widely different views wrt immigration.
                  That was one of the sticking points as far as I can tell. Possibly an even bigger one was environment considering the Greens and FDP are basically the total opposites on those with the Green Party taking a very strong stance in favor of environmentalism (that's sort of its thing) while the FDP's biggest identifying trait is being strongly pro-business and therefore against environmentalist regulation on them.

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                  • #24
                    Fresh developments: The left-wing SPD will be voting tomorrow whether to continue or abandon 'grand coalition' (a coalition made up of the major left-wing and major right-wing parties) talks with Merkel's right-wing party. The vote is expected to be very close.

                    'The least bad option:' Germany limps toward a new government:

                    It's nearly four months since Germany's federal election, in which support for the country's two largest parties slumped leaving Merkel with a mathematical and ideological quandary in her effort to form a new government.

                    Talks with the liberal FDP (Free Democratic Party) and Green Party collapsed, leaving a renewal of the so-called "GroKo" (Grosse Koalition or Grand Coalition) as the only option -- unless Merkel opts to rule alone in a minority government or put the country on the path to new elections.

                    "No one is particularly excited about another grand coalition," said Christoph Nguyen, political scientist at Free University Berlin. "But most of the alternatives are even less pleasant to consider."

                    "It's a bad option, but probably the least bad option."
                    "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                    "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                    "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

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