Roy Moore accused of sexual contact with 14-year old

[guacamole]

We're all a little evil, so it's okay to choose a lesser evil? No, i don't think so.

That's about where I'm at on the whole voting thing at this point. If the ends don't justify the means, then I'm not voting for the lesser of two evils.

[carpedm9587]

Fox News is the only poll having Jones ahead by 10 points. Fox, being an arm of the republican party, that's not hard to figure out. They want to make sure Moore supporters aren't complacent, that they don't take his victory for granted, and get out to vote.

Actually - I think the Fox poll was the one that had Jones ahead by 10 points. Emerson had Jones up by 9:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ones-6271.html

On a more pleasant note (for me), Trump has apparently hit a new low in HIS approval ratings at an aggregate of -20.4:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...oval-6179.html

Even Rasmussen, a notoriously right-leaning polling source, has him down by 16.

I have truly high hopes for 2018/2020!

BTW - my high hopes are for balance. After 2008, I was cheering on many Republican candidates because the government was too skewed to the left. If we "over correct" again and the government shifts to mostly left leadership, I will be again cheering on some Republican candidates.

[Mountain Man]

Approval ratings, as with most polls these days, are basically meaningless.

Even the Huffington Post has grudgingly admitted that Trump is winning, although they hilariously try to spin it by claiming that Trump's pro-America agenda is somehow really anti-America.

[One Bad Pig]

It's been notoriously difficult to figure what constitutes blasphemy on TWeb. Jesus didn't exist, God was a dragon, the Bible is a wheel, David was gay, none of those tripped the meter. Now, Jesus ...

Not that there's anything wrong with that.

Personally, I try to split the difference with blasphemy, a victimless crime against a being that shouldn't need human defenders, prosecutors, judges, or executioners in any case. I think of gods as more the "I've got this" type.

You'll never read about Zeus asking someone else to take care of Leda.

LGM was on my ignore list for years, until I spotted quotes of him tearing away at the other side with undiminished vim. He wasn't just ripping on Christians, he was going after pretentiousness. Remember who went after him. The accusation was a tad too convenient. Deb and I talked about it.

The difference between those and LGM's over-the-line posts is the people who propounded those ideas seemed to genuinely believe them. LGM's inappropriate posts, OTOH, were filled with vitriolic mockery. He wasn't trying to defend, but destroy. Does that help?

Alabama is voting today.

...and the world is watching.

[carpedm9587]

Approval ratings, as with most polls these days, are basically meaningless.

Even the Huffington Post has grudgingly admitted that Trump is winning, although they hilariously try to spin it by claiming that Trump's pro-America agenda is somehow really anti-America.

Folks might want to actually read the referenced article, rather than just Brietbart's take on it: https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...us_contributor

[carpedm9587]

The difference between those and LGM's over-the-line posts is the people who propounded those ideas seemed to genuinely believe them. LGM's inappropriate posts, OTOH, were filled with vitriolic mockery. He wasn't trying to defend, but destroy. Does that help?

...and the world is watching.

LGM is back? I remember him from years ago, and was under the impression he was permanently blocked...?

[guacamole]

LGM is back? I remember him from years ago, and was under the impression he was permanently blocked...?

I thought he died. Who gave me that impression?

[rogue06]

Even Rasmussen, a notoriously right-leaning polling source

The most accurate of the major polls in 2016 IIRC.

[carpedm9587]

The most accurate of the major polls in 2016 IIRC.

Pretty much all of the national polls were within the margin of error in 2016. I do not know which one was "most" within that margin. It could have been Rasmussen. The state polls were fewer and somewhat less precise.

Polling is in a state of flux right now, IMO. There are two many new variables that the pollers have not yet learned how to adjust for. The polls, for example, assume that people are going to answer honestly and correctly. But that assumption has been shown to be false when you compare the results of auto-polls with those that have a person conducting the poll.

[carpedm9587]

I thought he died. Who gave me that impression?

Oh...

[Mountain Man]

Polling is in a state of flux right now, IMO. There are [too] many new variables that the pollers have not yet learned how to adjust for.

There's that, but you also have pollsters who deliberately skew things in favor of one agenda or another because they're trying to shape public opinion, not reflect it.

[JimL]

There's that, but you also have pollsters who deliberately skew things in favor of one agenda or another because they're trying to shape public opinion, not reflect it.

Are you refering to FOX who has Jones up by 10 percentage points.

[One Bad Pig]

I thought he died. Who gave me that impression?

LGM is not back. I have no idea if he's still kicking or not. We gave a blanket amnesty to just about everybody when we rebooted, but he hasn't returned.

The only atheists I recall offhand dying are win_ace, bandecoot, and formerfundy.

[carpedm9587]

There's that, but you also have pollsters who deliberately skew things in favor of one agenda or another because they're trying to shape public opinion, not reflect it.

First of all - thanks for correcting my "two"

Second - much as I would like to deny that such is occurring, the range of polling is suspicious, especially when left-leaning sources have polls that lean left and right-leaning sources have polls that tend to lean right. Rasmussen is a good case in point - being off the "aggregate" to the right almost all the time. Quinnipiac is off the aggregate to the left almost all the time.

But there is another dynamic at play: the polling methodology. There is a clear difference between robo-polls and people-polls. There is a clear difference between polls that include cell phones and polls that exclude them. These are comparatively new dynamics and the pollsters do not yet seem to know how to adjust for them.

That is one of the reasons I tend to prefer using aggregators like FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics. Their aggregate numbers, historically, have been some of the most accurate numbers out there. It's odd to me; it would seem to me the aggregate of flawed polls would be a flawed aggregate - but that's the lovely world of statistics for ya!

[carpedm9587]

LGM is not back. I have no idea if he's still kicking or not. We gave a blanket amnesty to just about everybody when we rebooted, but he hasn't returned.

The only atheists I recall offhand dying are win_ace, bandecoot, and formerfundy.

Bandecoot and Formerfundy died?

Reminds me of a funeral I attended when I was in the seminary. I was standing at the back next to two priests and overhead a conversation between them.

"Did you know him well?" asked the first priest.
"Not really," said the second priest, "he was the friend of a parishioner."
"He was an atheist, you know." remarked the first priest.
"Not anymore," mumbled the second priest, under his breath.

I have to admit I had a great chuckle at that one...