2020 Trump Forecast

[carpedm9587]

It did reach 3% a couple times but the cold hard truth is that it averaged a dismal 1.5%. Now under Trump it has remained above 3% going up each quarter with many economists predicting this latest quarter might be over 4%.

The economy started roaring back to life the moment Trump was elected because of the anticipation of lowered taxes and to a lesser extent being relieved of burdensome regulations that served to do little more than to expand government and stifle economic growth.

Nice quote mine there. The context was about racial relations. And as you well know Democrats used to say things like "it's the economy stupid" but now seem far more interested in increasing the size and scope of government control. They see it as a way of maintaining power.

When a company screws up, there are many courses of action including law suits, doing business with someone else and simply watching them flounder and go out of business. With government your stuck dealing with the only game in town. And they typically respond to their screw ups with seizing even more control.

Except it has resulted in a booming economy which benefits everyone.

A clean planet benefits everyone. Less disparity between the richest and the poorest benefits everyone. Everyone having access to jobs that pay a living wage benefits everyone. Addressing implicit bias benefits everyone. Encouraging renewable energy resources benefits everyone, and engages the U.S. in a growth industry, rather than one (fossil fuels) that must eventually die.

Some of us have priorities that benefit everyone that transcend the economy. Yes, the GDP rate has climbed a percentage point or two. Stock market is going stellar (and overdue for a correction). Unemployment is lower. All of that was happening before Trump took office and was, for most of us, at reasonable levels. The incremental change since Trump took office simply doesn't impress most of us on the left and moderates, when compared to the cost for making it happen. We look at regulations we feel are important being gutted, we look at tax breaks going disproportionately to the wealthy and to large businesses, and we look at the undermining of the ACA and we find things are NOT going in the right direction. In fact, MOST of us think this. But Trump does what you are doing - focus on what is important to the right, and ignore the things that moderates and the left feel are important.

We shall see in 2018 and 2020 what that produces.

[carpedm9587]

Here it is again - Republicans want dirty water and air, so their own kids can choke and get sick......

My impression is that Republicans place the economy above everything else. It is the mantra repeated over and over again. If regulations enforcing clean air get in the way of the economy, the regulations have to go. If the economy suffers a shirt-term sag as we re-orient towards renewables, then damn the renewables and let's stick with the fossil fuels. My impression is, for Republicans, the bottom line is the bottom line. I'm sure that's not true for ALL Republicans, but wander through these threads and see what defense there is for Trump - and most of it is "the economy, the economy, the economy." Well, the economy was not bad at the end of 2016. GDP was positive, if depressed. Job growth was strong. Unemployment was near record lows. Meanwhile, we were engaged as a leader internationally, we were making strides towards renewable energy sources, we were looking at issues like implicit bias in our police force, and many other things that moderates and liberals find important.

The big problem was that people who had been left behind by globalism were being ignored. That was the pain point Trump spotted, landed on, and leveraged to gain office. He did so in the most repugnant ways possible, bringing out the worst in our population, rather than the best. He bullied, name-called, ridiculed, incited anger, and rabble-roused in some of the most deplorable ways. So now, we have lost our leadership position in many parts of the world, Russia and China are rapidly filling the gap, we are a laughing stock in the eyes of most of the world (yes, I know you don't care what other nations think), we have rolled back important ecological regulations, the entity created to watchdog industries (especially financial) and protect the consumer (which has returned over $12B to the man on the street) has been defanged, and we now have a tax bill that will further widen the gap between rich and poor and will virtually ensure that healthcare prices will rise faster than they were already rising. Instread of addrssing the shortcomings of the ACA, many steps have been taken to make it worse.

I think, as people realize what is being done, the chickens will come home to roost. We shall see....

[John Reece]

I expect by the end of his term the average market growth rate will have been about 2% per year.

You are writing re Trump at the end of his first term in 2020, right?

If I am still alive then, I hope to remember to remind you of your comment.

[Cow Poke]

My impression is that Republicans place the economy above everything else.

I reject your premise, so I'll ignore the explanation. It's disappointing that you appear to be swayed by the idiotic "Republicans want to poison you with dirty air and water" crap that JimL and his ilk perpetuate. Most conservatives recognize we need clean air and water, but not at the expense of overkill regulations. :shrugs:

[KingsGambit]

You are writing re Trump at the end of his first term in 2020, right?

If I am still alive then, I hope to remember to remind you of your comment.

I hope you do so. I didn't vote for Trump but I certainly don't want the economy to tank.

[carpedm9587]

I reject your premise, so I'll ignore the explanation. It's disappointing that you appear to be swayed by the idiotic "Republicans want to poison you with dirty air and water" crap that JimL and his ilk perpetuate. Most conservatives recognize we need clean air and water, but not at the expense of overkill regulations. :shrugs:

I'm actually not swayed by Jim. I'm swayed by the arguments I see here and most other sites. When defending Trump, it's about the economy. When defending the stance against regulation, it's about the economy. When defending the the way the tax plan is structured, it's about the economy. The vast majority of time, when an argument is about government, it's about the economy. The only times the economy seems to take a back seat is when the discussion is about abortion or immigration. Even with immigration, however, the economy is a factor because there is a denial that reducing immigration will have any impact on the economy. The hidden message is, if shutting down immigration DID have a negative impact on the economy, it wouldn't be as serious an issue.

That is not to say that Republicans don't care about other things, which is what you just framed my position as (and I never said). It is to say if Position X is assessed as likely to harm the economy, Republicans tend to take Position Not X.

[Cow Poke]

I'm actually not swayed by Jim. I'm swayed by the arguments I see here and most other sites. When defending Trump, it's about the economy. When defending the stance against regulation, it's about the economy. When defending the the way the tax plan is structured, it's about the economy. The vast majority of time, when an argument is about government, it's about the economy. The only times the economy seems to take a back seat is when the discussion is about abortion or immigration. Even with immigration, however, the economy is a factor because there is a denial that reducing immigration will have any impact on the economy. The hidden message is, if shutting down immigration DID have a negative impact on the economy, it wouldn't be as serious an issue.

That is not to say that Republicans don't care about other things, which is what you just framed my position as (and I never said). It is to say if Position X is assessed as likely to harm the economy, Republicans tend to take Position Not X.

It would be safe to say that the economy is a factor, but it's ridiculous to think of it as an either/or.

[carpedm9587]

It would be safe to say that the economy is a factor, but it's ridiculous to think of it as an either/or.

I don't believe I said it was "either/or." I believe I said that the economy is the most important thing to most Republicans. If a regulation protects the ecology and doesn't impact the economy, I'm sure Republicans would be for it. If it potentially harms the economy, even if it's only in the short run, they will tend to be against it. That is the argument I see put forward time and time again on these pages and in other places.

[Cow Poke]

I don't believe I said it was "either/or."

You might as well have said that, Carpe... with this statement....

My impression is that Republicans place the economy above everything else.

I believe I said that the economy is the most important thing to most Republicans.

And there you go again.

If a regulation protects the ecology and doesn't impact the economy, I'm sure Republicans would be for it.

Give an example, please. Because it might be some other reason for which they oppose a regulation, which kinda shoots down your theory.

If it potentially harms the economy, even if it's only in the short run, they will tend to be against it. That is the argument I see put forward time and time again on these pages and in other places.

I think you see that argument because that's what you're looking for.

[carpedm9587]

You might as well have said that, Carpe... with this statement....

Those two statements do not translate into "either/or." That something is "the most important thing" does not mean that it is the only thing. As I noted, it's not either the economy or the ecology-related regulation - it is (generally) the economy if the ecology-related regulation might negatively impact it, and the ecology otherwise. And it's not absolute; I believe I was careful to note that it is the dominant trend. I am fairly careful about making absolute claims, for reasons I've explained elsewhere. You're reading what I posted incorrectly.

And there you go again.

That is also not an either/or statement.

Give an example, please. Because it might be some other reason for which they oppose a regulation, which kinda shoots down your theory.

Umm... my statement is about regulations Republicans would be for, and you want an example of one they would be against? I'm not following your logic.

Also, it's not a "theory," it's an observation about what I see in the conservative press and what I see posted here and on other conversative sites I frequent.

I think you see that argument because that's what you're looking for.

No - I see that argument because that is what is being said. The economy is the dominant rationale on these pages for most positions taken. As I noted, it is the most common defense for Trump, the most common defense for deregulation, and the most common defense for the tax plan. Other things impacted by these three things are barely, if ever, referenced. I don't need to look for it - it's on page after page and post after post here and in pretty much every other conservative site I frequent. Look over the pages, CP. I'm sure you'll note the pattern if you look.

[Cow Poke]

Look over the pages, CP. I'm sure you'll note the pattern if you look.

Please tell me you're not making your assessment of the Republican party based on what a handful of people say on a discussion board.

[Sparko]

Please tell me you're not making your assessment of the Republican party based on what a handful of people say on a discussion board.

That's kind of what I was saying about Carpe dismissing anything anyone says as "opinion" and handwaves it away, but seems to expect everyone to accept his opinion as fact.

[carpedm9587]

Please tell me you're not making your assessment of the Republican party based on what a handful of people say on a discussion board.

No - I am making them based on this discussion board, the discussion boards on other sites, the tenor of the news from right-leaning news sources, the statements and arguments made by my Republican friends, and the statements being made by Republican leadership at state and federal levels. In other words, on the basis of the sum of the Republican sources I have access to. This site is one data point, but it's certainly in line with the rest of them.

[carpedm9587]

That's kind of what I was saying about Carpe dismissing anything anyone says as "opinion" and handwaves it away, but seems to expect everyone to accept his opinion as fact.

Whether or not you accept what I say as fact is your, concern, Sparko. As I said, I have expectations about what you do and do not accept. You seem to feel you know what I am thinking despite what I have told you I am actually thinking. I'm not sure why you continue to insist you know what is in my mind better than I do...

On this issue, my statement is clearly an opinion formed on the basis of the evidence I outlined. Whether or not someone accepts the opinion as valid is entirely up to them.

[Sparko]

Whether or not you accept what I say as fact is your, concern, Sparko. As I said, I have expectations about what you do and do not accept. You seem to feel you know what I am thinking despite what I have told you I am actually thinking. I'm not sure why you continue to insist you know what is in my mind better than I do...

On this issue, my statement is clearly an opinion formed on the basis of the evidence I outlined. Whether or not someone accepts the opinion as valid is entirely up to them.

and we don't accept it.

But you seem to expect us to, otherwise why state it and then defend it? Yet when we give our opinion you are all over us about it demanding studies and so on.

So where's your scientific study? charts? evidence?

PS you even told me to call you out on it when you do this, remember?