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2020 Trump Forecast

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  • #16
    Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    First, what is this graph of? Did you take a single stock and use it as a reflector of what happened in the overall economy? This is certainly not the DOW (https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C....0.nQbcWwRsuW0). Even if it were, the DOW is one of the worst indicators of market performance out there. The S&P is a bit better: https://www.google.com/search?q=SP+5...hrome&ie=UTF-8 (adjust it to look at the 5 year history)

    Second, the stock market and the economy are not the same thing.
    all market indicators show a distinct upswing starting at the election of Trump which has not gone down since. The two years previous show a large variance (up and down) with a slow gradual upswing starting in 2016 but barely gets to the 2015 high until the election when it starts climbing.

    And the stock market is a pretty good indicator of the economy. The better companies do and the more people trust the market, the better it does and that happens when the economy is doing good. Just looking at my 401K, which has been wallowing for the last 5 years before Trump, I have made more in the last year than in the previous 5, percentage wise.

    as far as 5 years? Go to a large enough scale and any change will flatten out. Heck if you go to 10 years you can hardly tell there was a problem at all for several years after the housing crash. It all looks like uphill from there. The last 2 years before Trump was elected are enough to show that he had a great impact on the market when elected.

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by Sparko View Post
      all market indicators show a distinct upswing starting at the election of Trump which has not gone down since. The two years previous show a large variance (up and down) with a slow gradual upswing starting in 2016 but barely gets to the 2015 high until the election when it starts climbing.

      And the stock market is a pretty good indicator of the economy. The better companies do and the more people trust the market, the better it does and that happens when the economy is doing good. Just looking at my 401K, which has been wallowing for the last 5 years before Trump, I have made more in the last year than in the previous 5, percentage wise.

      as far as 5 years? Go to a large enough scale and any change will flatten out. Heck if you go to 10 years you can hardly tell there was a problem at all for several years after the housing crash. It all looks like uphill from there. The last 2 years before Trump was elected are enough to show that he had a great impact on the market when elected.
      As you wish, Sparko. It looks to me as if you're cherry-picking data to make a case. There is no doubt that the market gains increased in pace after the election, about 3:1. Markets love tax cuts and deregulation, so this is no major surprise. But your choice of mechanisms to evaluate the overall economy is a bit questionable, IMO, and definitely exaggerated.

      And I still do not believe the vast majority of people have the economy at the top of their issues list, which is supported by many recent surveys of the electorate. But, as they say, we shall see. The 2018 midterms will provide our first real view, and 2020 should seal the deal.
      The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

      I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
        As you wish, Sparko. It looks to me as if you're cherry-picking data to make a case. There is no doubt that the market gains increased in pace after the election, about 3:1. Markets love tax cuts and deregulation, so this is no major surprise. But your choice of mechanisms to evaluate the overall economy is a bit questionable, IMO, and definitely exaggerated.

        And I still do not believe the vast majority of people have the economy at the top of their issues list, which is supported by many recent surveys of the electorate. But, as they say, we shall see. The 2018 midterms will provide our first real view, and 2020 should seal the deal.
        As you wish Carpe, you can downplay how well things are doing under Trump.

        We have more jobs, more raises, more business, lower taxes, higher stocks and retirement funds, more job security, people can afford to buy stuff again. I think the economy is doing great and it is important.
        Last edited by Sparko; 01-19-2018, 02:16 PM.

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by Sparko View Post
          As you wish Carpe, you can downplay how well things are doing under Trump. Yeah people don't have the economy on the top of their issues list, because who cares how their lives are doing, right?

          We have more jobs, more raises, more business, lower taxes, higher stocks and retirement funds, more job security, people can afford to buy stuff again. Nope, the economy sucks or doesn't matter, right?
          Actually
          • The rate of job growth has slowed under Trump. Slightly above 170K jobs per month for 2017 vs. 193K per month for 2016 and 223K per month for 2015. Trump is also below Obama's entire second-term average.
          • As for more raises - that's not what the data says. The number of people NOT getting raises in 2017 is up (https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...ear/864433001/).
          • Taxes are lower, beginning in 2019 - and the bulk of that went to the top wage earners in the country - as a percentage (which is regressive) - not as dollars (which would be understandable). The tax plan is fairly widely unpopular.
          • Stocks are higher - continuing a trend begun 103 months ago. They simply have increased their rate on growth and 47% of Americans (rightly or wrongly) credit Obama more than Trump for that recovery (based on the poll Trump selectively quoted from a week or so ago). I also question just how many peoplke the stock market directly impacts. Middle class and upper class people, definitely. But people in lower classes and even lower-middle class will have minimal gains because the market is doing well.
          • Job security is up because unemployment is down, but again, that mark was hit by the end of Obama's term, with only a few fractions of a percent change in the last year. Of course, Trump doesn't have a lot of room for improvement here, because we were already near record lows when he took office after 7 years of recovery.
          • As for people buying stuff again, that trend has been in place for 4 years now.


          People aren't stupid, Sparko. They can see what is and is not due to Trump - regardless what he takes credit for. Since a) we were in fairly decent shape when he took office, b) he doesn't have a lot of headroom for growth, and c) he is alienating so many people in so many different ways, I suspect the economy will be second fiddle in the 2018 election. But we shall see. The signs mostly seem to point in that direction, but the election is still 10 months off. Who knows what could happen in that time?

          I tell you what. How about a friendly wager on the 2018 and 2020 outcomes?
          Last edited by carpedm9587; 01-19-2018, 02:29 PM.
          The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

          I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
            Actually
            • The rate of job growth has slowed under Trump. Slightly above 170K jobs per month for 2017 vs. 193K per month for 2016 and 223K per month for 2015. Trump is also below Obama's entire second-term average.
            • As for more raises - that's not what the data says. The number of people NOT getting raises in 2017 is up (https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...ear/864433001/).
            • Taxes are lower, beginning in 2019 - and the bulk of that went to the top wage earners in the country - as a percentage (which is regressive) - not as dollars (which would be understandable). The tax plan is fairly widely unpopular.
            • Stocks are higher - continuing a trend begun 103 months ago. They simply have increased their rate on growth and 47% of Americans (rightly or wrongly) credit Obama more than Trump for that recovery (based on the poll Trump selectively quoted from a week or so ago).
            • Job security is up because unemployment is down, but again, that mark was hit by the end of Obama's term, with only a few fractions of a percent change in the last year. Of course, Trump doesn't have a lot of room for improvement here, because we were already near record lows when he took office after 7 years of recovery.
            • As for people buying stuff again, that trend has been in place for 4 years now.


            People aren't stupid, Sparko. They can see what is and is not due to Trump - regardless what he takes credit for. Since a) we were in fairly decent shape when he took office, b) he doesn't have a lot of headroom for growth, and c) he is alienating so many people in so many different ways, I suspect the economy will be second fiddle in the 2018 election. But we shall see. The signs mostly seem to point in that direction, but the election is still 10 months off. Who knows what could happen in that time?

            I tell you what. How about a friendly wager on the 2018 and 2020 outcomes?
            we will have to disagree on the jobs and economy, Carpe. My life and job are doing great since Trump won.

            as for 2018 I don't have a clue what is going to happen. I know that Trump winning has woken a bunch of whiny crybabies who probably never voted in their life who might decide to vote in 2018, and unless the Republicans stay on the ball, they could be swamped in the elections. I myself don't usually vote in every off season election but I will make sure to do so this time.

            As far as 2020 goes. Even with Trump doing a great job, I don't think that means a thing to people who hate the guy. He is not very likeable. Even the people like me who voted for him don't really like him and only voted him in as an opposition to Hillary. So if the Democrats can put up a seriously good and tempting MODERATE candidate (not Hillary, not Bernie and certainly not Oprah) that could woo some of those reluctant Republicans, then they could probably take it away from Trump.

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by Sparko View Post
              we will have to disagree on the jobs and economy, Carpe. My life and job are doing great since Trump won.
              You are one person, Sparko - and clearly not particularly objective. I'd be curious to know exactly how your personal job has improved in the last 12 months. However, even if it has, an example is not an argument. The data/trends I provided are broad-based, not just based on one person's experience.

              Originally posted by Sparko View Post
              as for 2018 I don't have a clue what is going to happen. I know that Trump winning has woken a bunch of whiny crybabies who probably never voted in their life who might decide to vote in 2018, and unless the Republicans stay on the ball, they could be swamped in the elections. I myself don't usually vote in every off season election but I will make sure to do so this time.
              Well, apparently when it is the other side it is "whinny crybabies" and when it is your own side it is "fed-up/ticked-off Americans." In 2016 a lot of angry Americans (not whinny crybabies) went to the polls and Trump scraped by with about 80K votes. I think we are about to see the anger from the other side. Almost every data point strongly suggests a sizeable-to-enormous wave election.

              Originally posted by Sparko View Post
              As far as 2020 goes. Even with Trump doing a great job, I don't think that means a thing to people who hate the guy. He is not very likeable. Even the people like me who voted for him don't really like him and only voted him in as an opposition to Hillary. So if the Democrats can put up a seriously good and tempting MODERATE candidate (not Hillary, not Bernie and certainly not Oprah) that could woo some of those reluctant Republicans, then they could probably take it away from Trump.
              While 2020 is not "in the bag," it is looking very good for a "Dump Trump" experience. First of all, most of us DON'T think he's "doing a great job." We think he's done a few good things, and mostly is doing a horrendous job by almost every measure we care about. And every "good job" he's done is to-some-degree tainted. For example, I think he has taken a stronger (and needed) stance against illegal immigration. Unfortunately, in the process of doing it he is not taking a very nuanced approach and many people are being deported unjustly - not to mention the DACA debacle. He is taking a strong stand against unnecessary regulation, but his approach is flawed (i.e., a quantitative approach rather than a qualitative one), resulting in some ridiculous deletions (e.g., abandoning the ban against disposable plastic water bottles in state parks). Add to that his despicable character traits, and you have one of the most unpopular presidents in modern times.

              Frankly, if the Republicans are thinking, there will be a full blown Republican primary in 2020 and Trump won't even make it to the general election. If he does, I'm reasonably sure he's going to lose... bigly!

              I'm still open to a friendly wager!
              Last edited by carpedm9587; 01-19-2018, 02:50 PM.
              The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

              I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                You are one person, Sparko - and clearly not particularly objective. I'd be curious to know exactly how your personal job has improved in the last 12 months. However, even if it has, an example is not an argument. The data/trends I provided are broad-based, not just based on one person's experience.
                and I can provide counter claims too. whoopie.



                Well, apparently when it is the other side it is "whinny crybabies" and when it is your own side it is "fed-up/ticked-off Americans." In 2016 a lot of angry Americans (not whinny crybabies) went to the polls and Trump scraped by with about 80K votes. I think we are about to see the anger from the other side. Almost every data point strongly suggests a sizeable-to-enormous wave election.
                If they were fed up they should have voted in the last election and beaten Trump. Instead they stood home confident that Hillary would easily beat Trump. Now they are "fed up" and trying to make up all sorts of conspiracies because they can't accept they just lost.


                While 2020 is not "in the bag," it is looking very good for a "Dump Trump" experience. First of all, most of us DON'T think he's "doing a great job." We think he's done a few good things, and mostly is doing a horrendous job by almost every measure we care about. And every "good job" he's done is to-some-degree tainted. For example, I think he has taken a stronger (and needed) stance against illegal immigration. Unfortunately, in the process of doing it he is not taking a very nuanced approach and many people are being deported unjustly - not to mention the DACA debacle. He is taking a strong stand against unnecessary regulation, but his approach is flawed (i.e., a quantitative approach rather than a qualitative one), resulting in some ridiculous deletions (e.g., abandoning the ban against disposable plastic water bottles in state parks). Add to that his despicable character traits, and you have one of the most unpopular presidents in modern times.

                Frankly, if the Republicans are thinking, there will be a full blown Republican primary in 2020 and Trump won't even make it to the general election. If he does, I'm reasonably sure he's going to lose... bigly!

                I'm still open to a friendly wager!
                at this point I am not making any predictions. And look what happened to those who made predictions LAST election.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                  and I can provide counter claims too. whoopie.
                  Are you suggesting that any of the data I provided is not accurate?

                  Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                  If they were fed up they should have voted in the last election and beaten Trump. Instead they stood home confident that Hillary would easily beat Trump. Now they are "fed up" and trying to make up all sorts of conspiracies because they can't accept they just lost.
                  I don't see anyone making up any "conspiracies," Sparko. A lot of people DID stay home because they believed it was "in the bag." They deserved to lose as a result, IMO. They also lost because the left has failed to listen to the concerns of those broadly disenfranchised by globalism and evolving technologies/markets. And they lost because they arrogantly dismissed the "less educated" as inconsequential. They justifiably had their butts handed to them. Trump won the election, though narrowly. He is rightly/legally occupying the office, despite obvious his lack of qualifications. Fortunately, he is doing exactly what the left did: playing to his base and ignoring the other side. Republicans in Congress are doing much the same. They have (so far) failed to learn the lessons of their own success, and are likely to see the consequences of that in 2018 and 2020. Every time Trump plays exclusively to his 30ish% core base, he angers and alienates some part of the 60ish% that are pretty stongly against him, or at least disappointed in him.

                  Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                  at this point I am not making any predictions. And look what happened to those who made predictions LAST election.
                  A lot of hay has been made about the errant predictions of last election cycle. I see them in two groups: the actual pollsters, and the pundits who were interpreting the polls. The former had the predictions pretty solidly on the mark. The latter were over-the-top jubilant about an election that had not happened yet: they were counting their chickens before they hatched. They justifiably had to eat a bit of humble pie as a result. The same happened in my own home. My very liberal wife was dancing in the weeks leading up to the election, and I kept saying, "this isn't over - Trump could pull this off." As the final days unfolded, and more and more things happened, I felt more and more strongly that Trump could take the election. Election night, I was disappointed when he won, but my wife was in tears for the next couple days. Sometimes, we let our expectations get ahead of us.

                  So, I agree, it is early. But right now, the signs are looking pretty good, IMO. We shall see what the next 2.5+ years brings. Right now, 2018 is the target in sight. If there is a wave election that turns the house blue, it will help to slow down some of the damage Trump is doing. The Senate would be better, but that is most definitely a long shot.
                  The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                  I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by JimL View Post
                    Rasmussen, Rasmussen, the conservatives favorite pollster.
                    Who just happened to be the most accurate major polling firm during the 2016 presidential election.


                    Originally posted by JimL View Post
                    The composit of all the polls have Trump at 37.7%, so that's even lower than the recent cnbc/wsj poll I cited. And btw, Obama was at 49.6 at the same point in his presidency.
                    The "composit" of all the polls in 2016 were showing a Hillary landslide.

                    How did that work out?

                    I'm always still in trouble again

                    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                    "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                    "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                      In your eyes, a shame for the US as the economy comes roaring to life, and I don't give a flying flip about what the rest of the world thinks.
                      A goodly percentage of liberals loathe the idea of a robust economy since that means people can be self-reliant and not turning to the government for a hand-out.

                      I'm always still in trouble again

                      "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                      "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                      "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                        [ATTACH=CONFIG]26025[/ATTACH]
                        GDP average under Obama was an anemic 1.5%. Under Trump it is more than double that.

                        Record low unemployment rates for both blacks and Hispanics.

                        Record high consumer confidence levels.


                        But then what do you expect from the left?

                        These were the same folks who insisted that a 1.5% GDP was the new normal, that the days of +3% were over because of a changing world economy.

                        They were the ones who said manufacturing jobs in the U.S. were a thing of the past. No surprise there considering that we lost over a million such jobs under Obama (and George W. Bush as well). According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics manufacturing is now one of the fastest growing job sectors.

                        They were the ones who proclaimed that the tax cut would only benefit the rich, that the average worker would see no benefit



                        In less than a month after passage 81 companies have announced significant pay raises, bonuses and increases in benefits citing the tax cut as a reason. More are doing so.
                        Last edited by rogue06; 01-19-2018, 11:44 PM. Reason: add "now"

                        I'm always still in trouble again

                        "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                        "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                        "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                          A goodly percentage of liberals loathe the idea of a robust economy since that means people can be self-reliant and not turning to the government for a hand-out.
                          And, because "it's the economy, stupid"
                          The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by JimL View Post
                            Actually the polls had it just about right with Clinton winning the popular vote by 3 million
                            Which is relevant, how??? Did that win election for here?

                            but Trump pulled off the upset by winning the electoral college knocking off a few states by a few thousand votes.
                            So polls of yours are useless.
                            Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                              all market indicators show a distinct upswing starting at the election of Trump which has not gone down since. The two years previous show a large variance (up and down) with a slow gradual upswing starting in 2016 but barely gets to the 2015 high until the election when it starts climbing.

                              And the stock market is a pretty good indicator of the economy. The better companies do and the more people trust the market, the better it does and that happens when the economy is doing good. Just looking at my 401K, which has been wallowing for the last 5 years before Trump, I have made more in the last year than in the previous 5, percentage wise.

                              as far as 5 years? Go to a large enough scale and any change will flatten out. Heck if you go to 10 years you can hardly tell there was a problem at all for several years after the housing crash. It all looks like uphill from there. The last 2 years before Trump was elected are enough to show that he had a great impact on the market when elected.
                              The stock market has gone up something like 31%, adding nearly $7 trillion in market cap since Donald Trump was elected president. Still, I'm one of those who thinks it is overdue for a "correction."

                              I'm always still in trouble again

                              "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                              "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                              "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by JimL View Post
                                Actually the polls had it just about right with Clinton winning the popular vote by 3 million, but Trump pulled off the upset by winning the electoral college knocking off a few states by a few thousand votes.
                                That's what happens when morons focus on a totally useless national poll when the election is decided state by state. And you can bet your bottom dollar that both Hillary and Trump understood that.

                                I'm always still in trouble again

                                "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                                "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                                "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                                Comment

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