Page 5 of 9 FirstFirst ... 34567 ... LastLast
Results 41 to 50 of 83

Thread: 2017's global temperatures

  1. #41
    tWebber Teallaura's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    In my house.
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Female
    Posts
    12,696
    Amen (Given)
    6034
    Amen (Received)
    4616
    Quote Originally Posted by TheLurch View Post
    I think, in retrospect, i wasn't clear in my initial argument. My idea was not that the education system of the time influenced science education today, but that it influenced the cultural environment, setting the stage for one where you could be considered culturally literate without knowing any science (even as science became one of the biggest influences on culture). So i wasn't actually focusing on the current education system at all.

    Unfortunately, i stopped paying attention to the bigger picture when i responded to your post.
    Ah, okay.

    I admit, now I'm a bit unsure what exactly you mean here. Science is taught at almost all levels of education - it's impossible to get through the US system without any science at all. I kinda get what you're saying - even agree in part - but you don't usually use a lot of hyperbole so I'm not sure if you mean degree or literally none.

    I'm not even sure it would be fully true for a classical education in all but the earliest periods.

    Or maybe I'm just over reading here...

  2. #42
    tWebber TheLurch's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Northeast USA
    Faith
    MYOB
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    1,016
    Amen (Given)
    67
    Amen (Received)
    330
    Quote Originally Posted by Teallaura View Post
    Ah, okay.

    I admit, now I'm a bit unsure what exactly you mean here. Science is taught at almost all levels of education - it's impossible to get through the US system without any science at all. I kinda get what you're saying - even agree in part - but you don't usually use a lot of hyperbole so I'm not sure if you mean degree or literally none.

    I'm not even sure it would be fully true for a classical education in all but the earliest periods.

    Or maybe I'm just over reading here...
    Let me try again:

    My argument is that part of the reason we don't do a good job with science education is that we as a culture are very accepting of scientific illiteracy. That's the Shakespeare vs. quantum mechanics part of things.

    I'd suggest it might go back a couple of centuries, to where being well-read and educated meant knowing the Greek and Roman classics, but didn't include knowledge of the natural world. That was reflected in the education system of the time, and (to some extent) persists today, though mostly at the college level.

    Any impact on primary education is indirect, in the sense that we accept scientific illiteracy, and don't try as hard as we should to fix the education system.

  3. #43
    tWebber
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Maryland
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    2,173
    Amen (Given)
    109
    Amen (Received)
    984
    Quote Originally Posted by TheLurch View Post
    Let me try again:

    My argument is that part of the reason we don't do a good job with science education is that we as a culture are very accepting of scientific illiteracy. That's the Shakespeare vs. quantum mechanics part of things.

    I'd suggest it might go back a couple of centuries, to where being well-read and educated meant knowing the Greek and Roman classics, but didn't include knowledge of the natural world. That was reflected in the education system of the time, and (to some extent) persists today, though mostly at the college level.

    Any impact on primary education is indirect, in the sense that we accept scientific illiteracy, and don't try as hard as we should to fix the education system.
    Not only are we accepting of scientific illiteracy, we can be out and out hostile to scientific or mathematical competance. We value great sports stars over great physicists or mathematicians. The smart young man or women that might one day make some great scientific discovery is routinely mocked and berated through the primary and secondary schooling unless they also happen to possess above average looks and athletic skills.

    Jim
    Jorge's trueorigins paper: "...it is known that other volcanic features match what is usually associated with impact craters including ... shatter cones and crystal deformations"

    Planetary Science Institute: "Shatter cones … are found in only two places on Earth, 1) in nuclear test sites and 2) meteorite impact structures. They are formed as a result of the high pressure, high velocity shock wave ...

    maximum pressures from 45 to 200 times greater than found in volcanic events (2->20 Gpa)

  4. #44
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Hillsborough, NC
    Faith
    Agnostic
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    12,812
    Amen (Given)
    1251
    Amen (Received)
    870
    The Arctic is running above freezing this winter.


    Source: https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/27/weather/arctic-temperatures-record-high-intl/index.html



    (CNN)Winter is still in full swing in the North Pole, but temperatures this week have been downright summerlike in the Arctic.

    Although it is shrouded in the darkness of a 24-hour polar night, temperatures in the Arctic have soared well above freezing this week, marking the hottest temperatures recorded in the region during winter, according to scientists from the Danish Meteorological Institute.
    Calculations from Cape Morris Jessup, the world's northernmost land-based weather station, show that temperatures from February in eastern Greenland and the central Arctic are averaging about 15°C (27°F) warmer than seasonal norms.
    And although the Arctic has seen temperatures climbing for decades, the past few years have seen the most extreme changes, according to Martin Stendel, a climate scientist at DMI. For the past 20 years, temperatures above freezing in February have only been recorded three times -- first in 2011, then in 2017 and now.
    "For years, absolute values of temperatures have become higher and higher, but if you look a couple years back it's not so interesting whether the temperatures were minus 10 degrees C or minus 5 degrees C because the temperature was still well below zero," Stendel said.

    But this month's unusual rises are interesting -- and unprecedented -- and have continued for a record nine days in a row.

    © Copyright Original Source

    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  5. #45
    tWebber
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Maryland
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    2,173
    Amen (Given)
    109
    Amen (Received)
    984
    Quote Originally Posted by shunyadragon View Post
    The Arctic is running above freezing this winter.


    Source: https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/27/weather/arctic-temperatures-record-high-intl/index.html



    (CNN)Winter is still in full swing in the North Pole, but temperatures this week have been downright summerlike in the Arctic.

    Although it is shrouded in the darkness of a 24-hour polar night, temperatures in the Arctic have soared well above freezing this week, marking the hottest temperatures recorded in the region during winter, according to scientists from the Danish Meteorological Institute.
    Calculations from Cape Morris Jessup, the world's northernmost land-based weather station, show that temperatures from February in eastern Greenland and the central Arctic are averaging about 15°C (27°F) warmer than seasonal norms.
    And although the Arctic has seen temperatures climbing for decades, the past few years have seen the most extreme changes, according to Martin Stendel, a climate scientist at DMI. For the past 20 years, temperatures above freezing in February have only been recorded three times -- first in 2011, then in 2017 and now.
    "For years, absolute values of temperatures have become higher and higher, but if you look a couple years back it's not so interesting whether the temperatures were minus 10 degrees C or minus 5 degrees C because the temperature was still well below zero," Stendel said.

    But this month's unusual rises are interesting -- and unprecedented -- and have continued for a record nine days in a row.

    © Copyright Original Source


    It is becoming laughable to pretend the world is not warming ... and warming significantly.

    Jim
    Jorge's trueorigins paper: "...it is known that other volcanic features match what is usually associated with impact craters including ... shatter cones and crystal deformations"

    Planetary Science Institute: "Shatter cones … are found in only two places on Earth, 1) in nuclear test sites and 2) meteorite impact structures. They are formed as a result of the high pressure, high velocity shock wave ...

    maximum pressures from 45 to 200 times greater than found in volcanic events (2->20 Gpa)

  6. #46
    tWebber TheLurch's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Northeast USA
    Faith
    MYOB
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    1,016
    Amen (Given)
    67
    Amen (Received)
    330
    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    It is becoming laughable to pretend the world is not warming ... and warming significantly.
    Up until a year or so ago, the "no warming since..." crowd was still very vocal. And if the recent pattern of temperature change - huge spikes upwards followed by relative stasis for a decade or more - continues, then i wouldn't be surprised to see them return in about 7-8 years. In the mean time, i expect "the climate's always changing" to predominate.

  7. Amen stfoskey15 amen'd this post.
  8. #47
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Hillsborough, NC
    Faith
    Agnostic
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    12,812
    Amen (Given)
    1251
    Amen (Received)
    870
    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    It is becoming laughable to pretend the world is not warming ... and warming significantly.

    Jim
    I consider it the Three Monkeys tragic, and not laughable. It is like a bad back it hurts when I laugh.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  9. #48
    tWebber
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Maryland
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    2,173
    Amen (Given)
    109
    Amen (Received)
    984
    Quote Originally Posted by TheLurch View Post
    Up until a year or so ago, the "no warming since..." crowd was still very vocal. And if the recent pattern of temperature change - huge spikes upwards followed by relative stasis for a decade or more - continues, then i wouldn't be surprised to see them return in about 7-8 years. In the mean time, i expect "the climate's always changing" to predominate.
    IIRC the cause of the 'hiatus' was heat tranfer to the oceans. No reason to believe that sort of bounce/rebound would not be cyclical.

    A question. Is ocean life more sensitive to temerpature change than land life forms? It would seem likely in that ocean temperatures are much more stable and have a much smaller range of variation, which I would expect to produce less reason to evolve a high range of temperature tolerance. But over time, an X degree shift in temperature on land would also become an X degree shift in ocean temperature (it would just lag the land shift).

    Jim
    Jorge's trueorigins paper: "...it is known that other volcanic features match what is usually associated with impact craters including ... shatter cones and crystal deformations"

    Planetary Science Institute: "Shatter cones … are found in only two places on Earth, 1) in nuclear test sites and 2) meteorite impact structures. They are formed as a result of the high pressure, high velocity shock wave ...

    maximum pressures from 45 to 200 times greater than found in volcanic events (2->20 Gpa)

  10. #49
    tWebber TheLurch's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Northeast USA
    Faith
    MYOB
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    1,016
    Amen (Given)
    67
    Amen (Received)
    330
    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    IIRC the cause of the 'hiatus' was heat tranfer to the oceans. No reason to believe that sort of bounce/rebound would not be cyclical.
    That's one of the influences identified, yes.

    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    A question. Is ocean life more sensitive to temerpature change than land life forms? It would seem likely in that ocean temperatures are much more stable and have a much smaller range of variation, which I would expect to produce less reason to evolve a high range of temperature tolerance. But over time, an X degree shift in temperature on land would also become an X degree shift in ocean temperature (it would just lag the land shift).
    As in many of these things, the answer is "it depends." The ocean is actually facing a triple-hit, as the increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere mean more is dissolving into the oceans. That lowers the efficiency of the exchange of CO2 for O2 at the gills of ocean animals, which will place some species with high demands under metabolic stress. It also lowers the pH of the water (a phenomenon called ocean acidification), which harms animals that base their skeletons on calcium carbonate. Plus there are the rising temperatures you mentioned.

    Combined, these will produce winners and losers. Sea grasses don't have skeletons, can generally tolerate higher temperatures, and their photosynthesis will benefit from easier access to CO2. Corals make skeletons and lose key symbiotic creatures if the temperatures get too high (that's coral bleaching). Fish would be harmed by the acidification and maybe the temperature, but would probably benefit from the higher productivity if they graze on sea grass. So at an ecosystem level, where all these species facing different impacts interact, things get really complicated really fast. In a lot of cases, all we're able to say at this point is "things will change."

  11. #50
    tWebber Teallaura's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    In my house.
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Female
    Posts
    12,696
    Amen (Given)
    6034
    Amen (Received)
    4616
    Quote Originally Posted by TheLurch View Post
    We've had threads on tis in the past. Nobody's started one this time around, so I figured I would.

    Yesterday, NASA and NOAA released their analysis of the global temperatures in 2017. This was an interesting year, since it was first one after a strong El Niño, which has pushed temperatures up to a very dramatic record for two years in a row. Temperatures would be expected to drop, but the question was: by how much? Back to the temperatures typical of the early part of the decade? Or just down a little bit to near-record territory?

    The answer is the latter. NASA and NOAA place 2017 as the 2nd and 3rd warmest year on record, respectively. The differences come from whether the analysis uses the most up-to-date source data, and how it handles regions like the poles, where data is sparse compared to elsewhere. In either case, it's clear 2017 is roughly the same as 2015, which was an El Niño year and set a dramatic new record just two years ago.

    Berkeley Earth, which uses a completely different analytic approach, agrees and produced a nice graphic showing how 2017 is different from everything on record other than the last two years.

    Attachment 26021

    Another way to analyze this is to remove the effect of the El Niño. We have enough historic examples of how El Niño/La Niña strength correlates with global temperatures, and can use these to subtract the effect from the temperature data. That's been done with NASA/NOAA, and the results show that, when this adjustment is made, 2017 is actually the warmest year on record.

    Attachment 26022

    Over time, as the earth continues to warm, this will start to look like a "normal" year. But for now, it's clear that the last few years stand apart from anything anyone alive today has seen.
    I've been meaning to ask for a while - why are they using mean and not median? And the follow up, how is it adjusted?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •