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Thread: Moody's Assessment of the Tax Overhaul

  1. #101
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post








    I REALLY have too much time on my hands!
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.

    -Martin Luther King

  2. Amen Mountain Man amen'd this post.
  3. #102
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teallaura View Post
    That wasn't the 'good' I was observing - I merely noted that the tax cuts had a good effect on you at least.

    Short term, yes. But given the impact they are projected to have on the deficit, at the expense of my children and their children. And more to me than the lower and middle classes. I can do without the benefit. Others need it more. And I don't think it is just to saddle our children and their children with the debt for our spending.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.

    -Martin Luther King

  4. #103
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    sigh. Your OP was that Moody was predicting that businesses were NOT using the tax money to expand business and help employees and create jobs. Then they actually report the opposite. And you still can't just say "I was wrong"

    SMH.
    I would acknowledge I was wrong (and have before) if I actually was wrong. The first article I linked indicated that businesses were not planning to use the tax money to increase jobs and listed four other priorities. It does not say that there will not be new jobs added at all. The second report, cites significant job growth in January, but does not attribute any of this growth to the tax cut. Both of these reports can be true and the second does not counter the first.

    And the jobs picture appears to be a bit muddy for January (not unusual just after the month closes). The post reports 200K, not 234K. Have not seen the BLS numbers yet.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.

    -Martin Luther King

  5. #104
    Evolution is God's ID rogue06's Avatar
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    XXXXXXXXXXXXX bacon dancing.gif XXXXXXXXXXXXX

    I'm always still in trouble again

  6. #105
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rogue06 View Post
    XXXXXXXXXXXXX bacon dancing.gif XXXXXXXXXXXXX
    Show off
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.

    -Martin Luther King

  7. #106
    Evolution is God's ID rogue06's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    Show off
    When you got it...

    I'm always still in trouble again

  8. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    Moody is apparently confirming to its customers that the Tax overhaul will have minimal impact on the economy because (as was predicted) the vast majority of businesses are prioritizing stock buy-backs, mergers and acquisitions, and paying down debt. (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ta...ays-2018-01-25).

    This was predicted. Prior to the tax overhaul for businesses, U.S. businesses were sitting on almost record holdings. That they would take the surplus cash and use it for things they were not doing with their existing holdings seemed unlikely, and Moody has confirmed this is their projection and what they are seeing in the market.

    What we are seeing in the news is the usual case of select instances of businesses that ARE giving part of their gains to employees, but those gains are primarily being given in the form of one-time bonuses. That avoids the need to change payroll, and means that companies can elect NOT to give that bonus in future years and retain the surplus earnings.

    As expected, raising salaries and adding jobs is not something a business seeks to do. Managers will tell you it is always the course of last resorts and is done only when a business has no additional room to squeeze efficiency enhancements, or is expecting increased demand beyond what they can meet with efficiency enhancements. When a business gets more money, they do not immediately think, "let's make more jobs."
    The tax cut could be thought of as either a reduction in marginal cost, or an increase in marginal revenue. Either way, the relative change between marginal revenue and marginal cost makes it profitable to expand production (or to contract less). Regardless of how much cash was already being held. Surely such expansion (or avoidance of contraction) would include hiring more labor than otherwise.

    I suppose one might argue that most businessmen are failing to think in terms of marginal revenue/cost. But it seems that would result in those businessmen losing market share to the few businessmen who do.

  9. #108
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    Short term, yes. But given the impact they are projected to have on the deficit, at the expense of my children and their children. And more to me than the lower and middle classes. I can do without the benefit. Others need it more. And I don't think it is just to saddle our children and their children with the debt for our spending.
    Yes, I think spending should be significantly reduced. Or at least stop increasing spending.

  10. #109
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joel View Post
    Yes, I think spending should be significantly reduced. Or at least stop increasing spending.
    And the new spending bill doesn't do that either. Between the tax cuts and spending increases, it looks like we are looking at near $1T/year deficits in the not too distant future.

    So much for the "fiscal responsibility" theme...
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.

    -Martin Luther King

  11. #110
    Evolution is God's ID rogue06's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rogue06 View Post
    This is like the survey conducted by Reuters where they cannot find many people who have been positively effected by the recent tax cut. Of course this is no surprise since it doesn't go in effect until next month.
    And now a bit over half way through "next month" the New York Times is reporting that tax cut, which once was overwhelmingly unpopular thanks to incessant negative coverage by the MSM, is now supported by a narrow majority of Americans (up from 37% in December to 51% today). I'll bet that number will continue to grow as more companies continue to give raises, bonuses and increase in benefits because of the tax cuts and as Americans continue filing their income taxes.

    I'm always still in trouble again

  12. Amen Teallaura amen'd this post.

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