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  • Stock Market plunge.

    Stock market drops by over 1500 points today. 6% drop so far in just one day. Is Trumps bubble bursting?

  • #2
    Originally posted by JimL View Post
    Stock market drops by over 1500 points today. 6% drop so far in just one day. Is Trumps bubble bursting?
    Could be. We will see. Might be a good time to buy too.

    Comment


    • #3
      Well, the Patriots lost the Super Bowl last night so I'd expect many more signs of the impending apocalypse to come in the next few days.
      We know J6 wasn’t peaceful because they didn’t set the building on fire.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by alaskazimm View Post
        Well, the Patriots lost the Super Bowl last night so I'd expect many more signs of the impending apocalypse to come in the next few days.
        Nah, the Pats have been in 8 of the last 16 Super Bowls and they lost 3 of those 8, so not much of an omen there, but we did possibly elect the anti-christ as our president last november.

        Comment


        • #5
          I figure it's an expected correction. Fortunately, I got out two weeks ago!
          The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

          Comment


          • #6
            Even with the drop, Dow is still higher than it was before Trump won the election.

            Not sure what spooked investors. Is this fallout from the memo?
            Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
            But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
            Than a fool in the eyes of God


            From "Fools Gold" by Petra

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
              Even with the drop, Dow is still higher than it was before Trump won the election.

              Not sure what spooked investors. Is this fallout from the memo?
              I think it's mainly fear of inflation. That was the sense I was getting a couple weeks ago, so I switched everything to cash.
              The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

              Comment


              • #8
                Too soon to tell.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by JimL View Post
                  Stock market drops by over 1500 points today. 6% drop so far in just one day. Is Trumps bubble bursting?
                  I suspect it was probably some malfunctioning computer trading programs.

                  But I wouldn't be surprised to see a crash like 2008 or bigger soon. The US congress has gradually repealed the weak Dodd-Frank regulations that were put in place after 2008. The weak regulations combined with deep, deep, structural issues in the US economy, combined with record levels of wealth inequality make for a dangerous economic environment. The only thing holding it together currently has been immense amounts of quantitative easing which is a bit like wrapping a pile of radioactive waste in many layers of duct tape and declaring that it's now 'all good'. That was actually somewhat better than Europe's austerity approach of doing nothing and hoping it goes away, and it's been an interesting lesson to observe just how long quantitative easing can hold the pile of garbage together for. However, quantitative easing seems to be reaching the limits of its ability to tape over the underlying problems, so it will be interesting to see how quickly those problems re-manifest as QE's ability to hold it together runs out.
                  "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                  "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                  "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                    I suspect it was probably some malfunctioning computer trading programs.

                    But I wouldn't be surprised to see a crash like 2008 or bigger soon. The US congress has gradually repealed the weak Dodd-Frank regulations that were put in place after 2008. The weak regulations combined with deep, deep, structural issues in the US economy, combined with record levels of wealth inequality make for a dangerous economic environment. The only thing holding it together currently has been immense amounts of quantitative easing which is a bit like wrapping a pile of radioactive waste in many layers of duct tape and declaring that it's now 'all good'. That was actually somewhat better than Europe's austerity approach of doing nothing and hoping it goes away, and it's been an interesting lesson to observe just how long quantitative easing can hold the pile of garbage together for. However, quantitative easing seems to be reaching the limits of its ability to tape over the underlying problems, so it will be interesting to see how quickly those problems re-manifest as QE's ability to hold it together runs out.
                    I was under the impression that QE policy reversed late 3Q17 and the fed has been moving to realign its balance sheet. I'm also not sure I agree with your assessment about a huge fall. Unlike 2008 and 2001 before it, we don't appear to have a bubble in any particular segment. Instead, the overall market has been somewhat over-hot (i.e., PE ratios hit an average of 34 over the past few months, which is well beyond the 16 that is considered "normal."). We're overdue for a 10-20 point correction, and it appears to be happening (about 8% since last Monday already). It would not surprise me to see it correct another 5-15% before leveling out and resuming its growth cycle. Overall, economic trends have been fairly good: job growth is not as strong as 2012-2016, but it's still in the healthy range. Unemployment is now at levels that creating wage pressure, which is the next thing we expected to see. Although I do not think the tax cuts are going to produce their intended results (the GOP seems to forget that if the economy overheats, the fed stepps in to adjust rates and apply the breaks to prevent exorbitant inflation), there is no questions that businesses are liking them and using the projected savings to reduce debt, drive M&As, perform stock buy-backs, and issue dividends to shareholders.

                    Because there do not seem to be any overt negative economic indicators, I suspect that, once prices drop a bit more, people will starting looking for bargains and we'll see it turn back around.
                    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                      I suspect it was probably some malfunctioning computer trading programs.
                      some investors make money by massively selling off stock in the hopes of triggering a chain reaction so they can buy back more on the cheap after all the idiots (or automated trading computers) follow through.
                      "As for my people, children are their oppressors, and women rule over them. O my people, they which lead thee cause thee to err, and destroy the way of thy paths." Isaiah 3:12

                      There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                        I figure it's an expected correction. Fortunately, I got out two weeks ago!
                        You caused the sell off!!!

                        I have been keeping my money out for the last few months. I haven't sold any stock but I haven't been buying any either (other than the reinvestment of dividends which is automatic). I learned my lesson on the dotcom bubble thing. After it started falling, I sold my stock, which mean I lost money, then it took forever to get it back. This time I am just leaving things as they are and just not buying yet. Maybe when it starts back up I will buy at a discount. But it is hard to determine that for an amateur like me.

                        I am thinking this is a short term panic in the market. Things were going so well they are afraid the fed will raise interest rates. I think that is why it happened right after the SOTU address. If so, it could start right back up once the fear goes away and everyone sees the lowered prices as a bargain to buy.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                          You caused the sell off!!!
                          And I got back in last night!

                          I have been keeping my money out for the last few months. I haven't sold any stock but I haven't been buying any either (other than the reinvestment of dividends which is automatic). I learned my lesson on the dotcom bubble thing. After it started falling, I sold my stock, which mean I lost money, then it took forever to get it back. This time I am just leaving things as they are and just not buying yet. Maybe when it starts back up I will buy at a discount. But it is hard to determine that for an amateur like me.

                          I am thinking this is a short term panic in the market. Things were going so well they are afraid the fed will raise interest rates. I think that is why it happened right after the SOTU address. If so, it could start right back up once the fear goes away and everyone sees the lowered prices as a bargain to buy.
                          We're off to the races again!

                          dow.jpg
                          The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                            And I got back in last night!



                            We're off to the races again!

                            [ATTACH=CONFIG]26384[/ATTACH]
                            Insider TRADING!!!! I am gonna report you!!!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                              Insider TRADING!!!! I am gonna report you!!!
                              Don't get too excited. The DOW (which is a really bad index) is bouncing around in a 930+ point range. The Wilshire (much better index) is jumping around in a 700+ point range. Who knows where the roulette ball will land today.
                              The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                              I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                              Comment

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