2018 Senatorial Elections May Be More Interesting Than Usual

[Teallaura]

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball has an interesting article this week. I hadn't realized the Democrats were defending so many seats - a whooping 26! Granted, we're just now watching most candidates getting into the gate good, but the track is looking a little muddier than the Democrats were hoping it would be.

[Starlight]

Yup, could go either way. The Dems have more senate seats to defend (26 vs 8). But they've got the populace's anti-Trump sentiment working for them, current polling putting Trump's favorability around -16 and putting Dems ahead by 7 points on a "generic ballot". So it will be close.

With regard to governorships, the terrain runs the other way: Dems are defending 9, while the Republicans have 26 to defend. So the Dems seem likely to pick up a dozen state governorships.

The 2018 election will obviously be heavily affected by how the economy and stock market are feeling in November, as well as whether Trump has gone to war with NK or not, and what the results of Mueller's investigation are.

[rogue06]

Yup, could go either way. The Dems have more senate seats to defend (26 vs 8). But they've got the populace's anti-Trump sentiment working for them, current polling putting Trump's favorability around -16 and putting Dems ahead by 7 points on a "generic ballot". So it will be close.

With regard to governorships, the terrain runs the other way: Dems are defending 9, while the Republicans have 26 to defend. So the Dems seem likely to pick up a dozen state governorships.

The 2018 election will obviously be heavily affected by how the economy and stock market are feeling in November, as well as whether Trump has gone to war with NK or not, and what the results of Mueller's investigation are.

An anti-Trump sentiment that may be evaporating since the passage of the tax bill and an improving economy (Trump's favorability has gone up 10 points this year in most polls) and its beginning to dawn on people what a scam the whole Trump-Putin collusion thing has been. If (and that's a big if) the economy continues to steadily improve it might be hard to run on a platform that promotes a return to economic stagnation.

[Cow Poke]

An anti-Trump sentiment that may be evaporating since the passage of the tax bill and an improving economy (Trump's favorability has gone up 10 points this year in most polls) and its beginning to dawn on people what a scam the whole Trump-Putin collusion thing has been. If (and that's a big if) the economy continues to steadily improve it might be hard to run on a platform that promotes a return to economic stagnation.

Besides, I think the public is getting tired of the same old anti-Trump drumbeat from the liberal media. They have been crying wolf far too long.

[Starlight]

If (and that's a big if) the economy continues to steadily improve it might be hard to run on a platform that promotes a return to economic stagnation.

Did your mother teach you to lie like that? If Obama had been a Republican president, we'd never hear the end of how amazing his economic record was. He added a net 11.5 million jobs, the S&P 500 went up 166%, corporate profits and stock prices reached record highs, the median wage went up faster than inflation, and unemployment was below average by the end of his term. But because he's a democrat you call it "economic stagnation".