This article caught my eye this morning. There has been a trend since Trump's election: elections have shifted to the left an average of around 10 percentage points. That means in deeply red districts, the gap was closed. In districts that lean red or are decidedly "swing," Democrats have been making gains. And the gap appears to be widening over time, rather than narrowing or closing.
I did a quick analysis of the Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) against the 2016 Congressional Election Results. If the 10% average holds, it suggests that over 70 house seats currently in Republican hands are likely to shift left. If it weakens to 5 points, 40 seats are likely to shift. Democrats need 24 seats to retake the house.
I'm curious to know if people here actually see/fear a coming blue wave, or if folks are generally of the opinion that it's not going to happen and Republicans will retain control of both houses of Congress?
A similar analysis of the Senate does not give Democrats an advantage; they are simply defending too many seats. That changes in 2020, however, when Democrats defend few seats and Republicans defend many.
I did a quick analysis of the Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) against the 2016 Congressional Election Results. If the 10% average holds, it suggests that over 70 house seats currently in Republican hands are likely to shift left. If it weakens to 5 points, 40 seats are likely to shift. Democrats need 24 seats to retake the house.
I'm curious to know if people here actually see/fear a coming blue wave, or if folks are generally of the opinion that it's not going to happen and Republicans will retain control of both houses of Congress?
A similar analysis of the Senate does not give Democrats an advantage; they are simply defending too many seats. That changes in 2020, however, when Democrats defend few seats and Republicans defend many.
Comment