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A Coming Blue Wave?

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  • A Coming Blue Wave?

    This article caught my eye this morning. There has been a trend since Trump's election: elections have shifted to the left an average of around 10 percentage points. That means in deeply red districts, the gap was closed. In districts that lean red or are decidedly "swing," Democrats have been making gains. And the gap appears to be widening over time, rather than narrowing or closing.

    I did a quick analysis of the Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) against the 2016 Congressional Election Results. If the 10% average holds, it suggests that over 70 house seats currently in Republican hands are likely to shift left. If it weakens to 5 points, 40 seats are likely to shift. Democrats need 24 seats to retake the house.

    I'm curious to know if people here actually see/fear a coming blue wave, or if folks are generally of the opinion that it's not going to happen and Republicans will retain control of both houses of Congress?

    A similar analysis of the Senate does not give Democrats an advantage; they are simply defending too many seats. That changes in 2020, however, when Democrats defend few seats and Republicans defend many.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

  • #2
    I honestly don't care - midterms are a whole 'nuther animal, and sometimes the party in control needs the wake-up. I'm about as disgusted with Republicans in general as I have ever been.

    It is what it is.
    The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
      I honestly don't care - midterms are a whole 'nuther animal, and sometimes the party in control needs the wake-up. I'm about as disgusted with Republicans in general as I have ever been.
      That's a good sign at least.
      It is what it is.
      Doesn't have to be, stop putting them in office.

      Comment


      • #4
        It doesn't seem to make any difference. The Republicans have control and still can't get anything done. If the majority of congress went democrat I doubt they could still get anything done fighting against Trump.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by JimL View Post
          That's a good sign at least.
          It's been true for quite some time, which is why I'm an I, not an R.

          Doesn't have to be, stop putting them in office.
          Yes, much better the pinko commie liberal hypocrite YOU and the rest of the "I just want STUFF" crowd were hoping for.
          The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
            It's been true for quite some time, which is why I'm an I, not an R.
            Ha ha ha, an I that alway's votes R. Might as well have remained an R, CP.

            Yes, much better the pinko commie liberal hypocrite YOU and the rest of the "I just want STUFF" crowd were hoping for.
            Yes, the pinko commie liberals who are the only ones to ever get anything done that is in the actual best interests of the people and the country in general. And when pointing fingers at pinko commies remember who it is that is defending THE RUSSIANS in their attack on our democracy. It ain't the liberals, it's the people you conservatives elected, same as in Europe.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by JimL View Post
              Ha ha ha, an I that alway's votes R. Might as well have remained an R, CP.
              There's no apostrophe in always. And, locally, I have voted for a number of Democrats, so, as usual, you haven't got a clue what you're talking about. (Are you drunkposting?)

              Yes, the pinko commie liberals who are the only ones to ever get anything done that is in the actual best interests of the people and the country in general. And when pointing fingers at pinko commies remember who it is that is defending THE RUSSIANS in their attack on our democracy. It ain't the liberals, it's the people you conservatives elected, same as in Europe.
              11a65d733fd54a2fc03da47c8f580982.jpg
              The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                It doesn't seem to make any difference. The Republicans have control and still can't get anything done. If the majority of congress went democrat I doubt they could still get anything done fighting against Trump.
                Agreed. They would mostly place a break on some of his agenda - running out the clock until the 2020 election.
                The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                  It's been true for quite some time, which is why I'm an I, not an R.

                  Yes, much better the pinko commie liberal hypocrite YOU and the rest of the "I just want STUFF" crowd were hoping for.
                  Sanders?
                  The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                  I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                    There's no apostrophe in always. And, locally, I have voted for a number of Democrats, so, as usual, you haven't got a clue what you're talking about. (Are you drunkposting?)

                    [ATTACH=CONFIG]26584[/ATTACH]
                    Does the image have some significance?
                    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                      I'm curious to know if people here actually see/fear a coming blue wave...
                      It's too early to say, but recent polls show that incumbent Republicans are slightly favored over generic Democrats -- of course with the caveat that it's a foregone conclusion that public opinion polls are basically worthless. We know that Trump's economic policy is becoming increasingly popular, which is going to give him some nice coattails for Republicans to ride on. And if the Nunes investigation blows up the way I think it will, it will destroy the Democrat ticket -- one Democrat even begged Mueller not to release the results of his investigation until after the election, likely fearing that a finding of no collusion on the part of the Trump campaign (which is pretty much certain at this point), or, even worse, Mueller affirming Nunes' finding, or, worst of all, Mueller being caught in the net himself, would be very, very bad for Democrats.
                      Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                      But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                      Than a fool in the eyes of God


                      From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                        Does the image have some significance?
                        Yes.
                        The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                          It's too early to say, but recent polls show that incumbent Republicans are slightly favored over generic Democrats -- of course with the caveat that it's a foregone conclusion that public opinion polls are basically worthless. We know that Trump's economic policy is becoming increasingly popular, which is going to give him some nice coattails for Republicans to ride on. And if the Nunes investigation blows up the way I think it will, it will destroy the Democrat ticket -- one Democrat even begged Mueller not to release the results of his investigation until after the election, likely fearing that a finding of no collusion on the part of the Trump campaign (which is pretty much certain at this point), or, even worse, Mueller affirming Nunes' finding, or, worst of all, Mueller being caught in the net himself, would be very, very bad for Democrats.
                          I'm not even going to try to parse the three Brietbart (surprise, surprise) articles, MM. I just don't have the time to keep sorting out the slant from the facts. Your thoughts on the situation, however, are duly noted. I will note, however, that incumbents vs. unnamed opposition is likely to favor the incumbent, be they left or right. We'll better know the disposition when we have actual candidates.
                          The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                          I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                            Yes.
                            Which would be...?
                            The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                            I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                              Which would be...?
                              Reminiscent of Obama's conversation with outgoing Russian president Dmitry Medvedev that Vladimir Putin in South Korea...

                              President Obama: "On all these issues, but particularly missile defense, this, this can be solved but it’s important for him to give me space."
                              President Medvedev: "Yeah, I understand. I understand your message about space. Space for you…"
                              President Obama: "This is my last election. After my election I have more flexibility."
                              President Medvedev: "I understand. I will transmit this information to Vladimir, and I stand with you."
                              The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                              Comment

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