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A Sane Discussion About Gun Violence

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  • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
    Is this the thread from which I was banned?
    Who banned you...?
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

    Comment


    • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
      Who banned you...?
      I thought maybe this was the one where I used too many smiles or something...
      The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
        I thought maybe this was the one where I used too many smiles or something...
        Buddy - you and I are worlds apart on many topics. I find some of the things you say truly repugnant - but I am reasonably sure you feel the same way about some of the things I say. Despite that disconnect - I find in you the kind of person I find in my friend in Seattle. He is an unabashed redneck who hates the left and loves Trump. He stands for everything I stand against. But I find in him a kind soul who would willingly give the shirt from his back if he thought it would help a fellow human being. He and I met online (as did we), and we have been friends now for 20 years. I hate everything he stands for - and he hates most of what I stand for - and I love him and know he loves me.

        Every day - he reminds me that people of opposing views do not have to be enemies. They can be the "loyal opposition." He is mine - as are you. I would hoist a beer with you in a heartbeat - knowing you will vote against many of the things I would vote for.

        And though I do not pray myself, I know how much he values prayer. So if you have a sec, he could use yours. His wife passed last year, and he is circling the drain himself. I am across the country from him, yet I have had to call 911 in his area twice because he keeps reaching out to me and does not seem to have anyone else nearby. I believe life ends when it ends, but he believes life goes on (as I suspect do you). So, I hope my friend finds peace, one way or the other. And if I am wrong and he is right, I hope he finds his beloved bride on the other side.

        Meanwhile - I am pretty sure this is my thread. I don't think I have ever banned anyone from my threads. I'm certainly not going to start with you.
        The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

        I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

        Comment


        • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
          Buddy - you and I are worlds apart on many topics. I find some of the things you say truly repugnant
          Say it isn't so!!

          - but I am reasonably sure you feel the same way about some of the things I say.
          Actually, not at all - you express your opinion, I don't agree with a lot of it, but "repugnant" is a little over the top.

          Despite that disconnect - I find in you the kind of person I find in my friend in Seattle. He is an unabashed redneck who hates the left and loves Trump.
          But I don't hate the left OR love Trump. Not even a little. (Well, I love Trump as much as I'm required to as a Christian, but not an ounce more!!!!)

          He stands for everything I stand against. But I find in him a kind soul who would willingly give the shirt from his back if he thought it would help a fellow human being. He and I met online (as did we), and we have been friends now for 20 years. I hate everything he stands for - and he hates most of what I stand for - and I love him and know he loves me.

          Every day - he reminds me that people of opposing views do not have to be enemies. They can be the "loyal opposition." He is mine - as are you. I would hoist a beer with you in a heartbeat - knowing you will vote against many of the things I would vote for.

          And though I do not pray myself, I know how much he values prayer. So if you have a sec, he could use yours. His wife passed last year, and he is circling the drain himself. I am across the country from him, yet I have had to call 911 in his area twice because he keeps reaching out to me and does not seem to have anyone else nearby. I believe life ends when it ends, but he believes life goes on (as I suspect do you). So, I hope my friend finds peace, one way or the other. And if I am wrong and he is right, I hope he finds his beloved bride on the other side.

          Meanwhile - I am pretty sure this is my thread. I don't think I have ever banned anyone from my threads. I'm certainly not going to start with you.
          The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
            Say it isn't so!!

            Actually, not at all - you express your opinion, I don't agree with a lot of it, but "repugnant" is a little over the top.

            But I don't hate the left OR love Trump. Not even a little. (Well, I love Trump as much as I'm required to as a Christian, but not an ounce more!!!!)

            And with that- you have proven you are a schmuck.

            And I tip my hat to you...

            The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

            I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Littlejoe View Post
              Yes, again, I concede it has been effective for reducing GUN mass killings, but the OVERALL mass killing rate has stayed the same. As Carp said:
              According to Australian Government statistics "there were 487 homicide incidents in Australia between 1 July 2012 and 30 June 2014. The homicide incident rate of 1 per 100,000 in 2013–14 is the lowest recorded since 1989–90."

              http://www.crimestats.aic.gov.au/NHMP/

              By comparison the USA homicide rates per 100,000 were 4.90 in 2015.

              https://www.infoplease.com/us/crime/...rate-1950-2014
              “He felt that his whole life was a kind of dream and he sometimes wondered whose it was and whether they were enjoying it.” - Douglas Adams.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                I don't think so. If I set out to verify everyone else's data, I'll spend all my time verifying other people's data. I have enough to do keeping my own claims and beliefs clean and accurate. My approach when someone else makes a claim is to ask for the data that backs it, and let them know if I think it convinces. So far, your analysis falls a bit short. It will help to break it out and examine the rate, as I previously noted. However, you're going to have a hard time with the completeness of the data when Wikipedia is your source. Perhaps their sources are cited and you can identify the studies or the origins of the information?
                The sources are a lot of individual newspapers, news sites, books etc. AFAICT, there's not another list out there like this one. I've verified these are all accurate, you can find them online, but whether there's more or not, I really don't know and do not have the time to read a bunch of news sites/newspaper to glean it out. We have to take this as true...or not. I think it's probably pretty accurate, but proving it is more than I have time for.



                This gets you closer, and makes your case if you can establish that the list is complete. However, this is at the top of the page: This list is incomplete; you can help by expanding it.. That kind of undermines your case. You can't make a claim like the statistical one you are making using incomplete data. And given that Wikipedia started January 2001, it is far more likely that the post 2000 information is complete than the pre-2000 information. That being said the fact is we do not know and statistical claims are being made with (apparently) incomplete data.
                I wonder how they know it's incomplete? If they know of others then why don't they just go ahead and publish them?

                You are probably correct in that if there's incomplete data in the report it most likely would be from the pre-ban era versus post-ban era. Better to stick to data that's reliable. However, my original point stands IMO, that the statement "There's not been a mass shooting in Australia since the Gun ban in 1996" is demonstrably false, and should not be used in the debate. Regardless of the incompleteness of the data in this list, it has verifiable mass shootings in it since the ban. Those cannot be disputed.
                "What has the Church gained if it is popular, but there is no conviction, no repentance, no power?" - A.W. Tozer

                "... there are two parties in Washington, the stupid party and the evil party, who occasionally get together and do something both stupid and evil, and this is called bipartisanship." - Everett Dirksen

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Tassman View Post
                  According to Australian Government statistics "there were 487 homicide incidents in Australia between 1 July 2012 and 30 June 2014. The homicide incident rate of 1 per 100,000 in 2013–14 is the lowest recorded since 1989–90."


                  http://www.crimestats.aic.gov.au/NHMP/


                  By comparison the USA homicide rates per 100,000 were 4.90 in 2015.


                  https://www.infoplease.com/us/crime/...rate-1950-2014
                  Yes, this is all true and I have no quibble on these facts. However, these facts are very misleading. First of all, Australia has never had the murder rate the US has had. That had nothing to do with the gun ban. Australia has pretty much always had a lower rate.


                  Heres's some facts that I think are interesting:


                  1. Before the buyback started, the murder rate was already below 2 per 100,000 (specifically 1.8)
                  2. Before the buyback, the murder rate was already declining at ~0.02/year on avg.
                  3. For a time AFTER the buyback the murder rate shot UP before resuming it's steady fall...again, at 0.02/year on avg so, it seems that the only thing that the gun ban accomplished was to stall the decline for a couple of years.
                  4. Knives have killed more people than guns in Australia...and it's been that way for a long time...even before the gun ban.

                  gun vs knife Aus.JPG

                  https://aic.gov.au/publications/mr/m...tralia-2010-12 figure 9


                  From the website, Crime Statics Australia http://www.crimestats.aic.gov.au/NHMP/1_trends/
                  We can see that the crime rate in Australia was on a down slope before the gun ban.


                  Crime rate in AUS.jpeg




                  So, lets do a little comparison shall we? According to this chart the US murder rate was 9.8 in the year from 1990 to 1991.

                  US murder rate.JPG


                  In the same time period (1990 - 2014) that we see the Australian murder rate drop from 1.8 to 1.0 per 100,000 a drop of 44% the US rate dropped from 9.8 to 4.5 per 100,000...a rate of 54%. So, there you have it, the US has reduced it's murder rate by 10% more than Australia has over the same time period...without a gun ban.
                  Last edited by Littlejoe; 05-23-2018, 09:36 PM.
                  "What has the Church gained if it is popular, but there is no conviction, no repentance, no power?" - A.W. Tozer

                  "... there are two parties in Washington, the stupid party and the evil party, who occasionally get together and do something both stupid and evil, and this is called bipartisanship." - Everett Dirksen

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Littlejoe View Post
                    The sources are a lot of individual newspapers, news sites, books etc. AFAICT, there's not another list out there like this one. I've verified these are all accurate, you can find them online, but whether there's more or not, I really don't know and do not have the time to read a bunch of news sites/newspaper to glean it out. We have to take this as true...or not. I think it's probably pretty accurate, but proving it is more than I have time for.

                    I wonder how they know it's incomplete? If they know of others then why don't they just go ahead and publish them?
                    These are questions I cannot answer, obviously.

                    Originally posted by Littlejoe View Post
                    You are probably correct in that if there's incomplete data in the report it most likely would be from the pre-ban era versus post-ban era. Better to stick to data that's reliable. However, my original point stands IMO, that the statement "There's not been a mass shooting in Australia since the Gun ban in 1996" is demonstrably false, and should not be used in the debate. Regardless of the incompleteness of the data in this list, it has verifiable mass shootings in it since the ban. Those cannot be disputed.
                    That much is true. So long as there are guns of any kind, there will be mass shootings. What is also true is that the number of them has dropped precipitously since the 1996 ban. It is also possible that some part of those shifted to other means. It is also possible that an increase in other mass killings is due to other social factors that would have been there with or without the gun ban. We do not have data to make either of those last two cases definitively, as far as I know.
                    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Littlejoe View Post
                      Yes, this is all true and I have no quibble on these facts. However, these facts are very misleading. First of all, Australia has never had the murder rate the US has had. That had nothing to do with the gun ban. Australia has pretty much always had a lower rate.

                      Heres's some facts that I think are interesting:

                      1. Before the buyback started, the murder rate was already below 2 per 100,000 (specifically 1.8)
                      2. Before the buyback, the murder rate was already declining at ~0.02/year on avg.
                      3. For a time AFTER the buyback the murder rate shot UP before resuming it's steady fall...again, at 0.02/year on avg so, it seems that the only thing that the gun ban accomplished was to stall the decline for a couple of years.
                      4. Knives have killed more people than guns in Australia...and it's been that way for a long time...even before the gun ban.

                      [ATTACH=CONFIG]27955[/ATTACH]

                      https://aic.gov.au/publications/mr/m...tralia-2010-12 figure 9

                      From the website, Crime Statics Australia http://www.crimestats.aic.gov.au/NHMP/1_trends/
                      We can see that the crime rate in Australia was on a down slope before the gun ban.

                      [ATTACH=CONFIG]27953[/ATTACH]

                      So, lets do a little comparison shall we? According to this chart the US murder rate was 9.8 in the year from 1990 to 1991.

                      [ATTACH=CONFIG]27954[/ATTACH]

                      In the same time period (1990 - 2014) that we see the Australian murder rate drop from 1.8 to 1.0 per 100,000 a drop of 44% the US rate dropped from 9.8 to 4.5 per 100,000...a rate of 54%. So, there you have it, the US has reduced it's murder rate by 10% more than Australia has over the same time period...without a gun ban.
                      This kind of argumentation always strikes me as odd. It is argumentation by correlation without one iota of causation. We know that murder rates have been dropping due to a number of social and legal factors. What we do NOT know (for the Australian data) is what part of the drop is due to the gun ban and what part is not. It could well be that, without the gun ban, the murder rate would have been flat or even climbed over those years. Likewise, it could be that with a gun ban, the U.S. murder rate would have dropped 80% instead of 44%.

                      Without a causal link, all of these statistics say nothing. It reminds me of my son, who was losing his vision due to unexplained swelling of his optic nerve. In the absence of a diagnosis, the problem was being tackled symptomatically with intravenous steroids. After his second session, he said, "Dad, this is a waste of time. It's not doing anything." I asked him why he thought that was true. He responded, "my eyesight isn't getting any better!" I look at him and said, "So how do you know that your eye wouldn't be a LOT worse if it weren't for the steroids? Maybe what the steroids are doing is keeping it from getting worse."

                      That's what's happening here. Without a causal link, people are just tossing statistics around without much of an argument, IMO.
                      The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                      I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                        This kind of argumentation always strikes me as odd. It is argumentation by correlation without one iota of causation. We know that murder rates have been dropping due to a number of social and legal factors. What we do NOT know (for the Australian data) is what part of the drop is due to the gun ban and what part is not. It could well be that, without the gun ban, the murder rate would have been flat or even climbed over those years. Likewise, it could be that with a gun ban, the U.S. murder rate would have dropped 80% instead of 44%.

                        Without a causal link, all of these statistics say nothing. It reminds me of my son, who was losing his vision due to unexplained swelling of his optic nerve. In the absence of a diagnosis, the problem was being tackled symptomatically with intravenous steroids. After his second session, he said, "Dad, this is a waste of time. It's not doing anything." I asked him why he thought that was true. He responded, "my eyesight isn't getting any better!" I look at him and said, "So how do you know that your eye wouldn't be a LOT worse if it weren't for the steroids? Maybe what the steroids are doing is keeping it from getting worse."

                        That's what's happening here. Without a causal link, people are just tossing statistics around without much of an argument, IMO.
                        And how pray tell, are you going to establish causation? To dismiss the entire narrative because you feel there's no valid causation is silly IMO. If you know that there are a number of social and legal factors that play into the reduction of crime rate, then how do you then say there's no causation? That seems to me to be very dismissive of the points being made...and why I made them. Which is "The Gun Ban did it" narrative.

                        Without causation, some facts remain:
                        1. Knive violence and murders by knife in AUS. have been the leading cause of murder for a long time. IMO therefore, a gun ban would not reduce this type of murder.
                        2. The murder rate was already declining before the ban. After the ban it actually rose for a time back to the murder rate of 1.8/100,00.
                        3. It took 7 years after the ban before the rate returned to the pre-ban rate. There is no causation for the return to the same rate...to imply that it was the gun ban is fallacious IMO. So, the narrative that the gun ban did it is unproven. Agree?
                        "What has the Church gained if it is popular, but there is no conviction, no repentance, no power?" - A.W. Tozer

                        "... there are two parties in Washington, the stupid party and the evil party, who occasionally get together and do something both stupid and evil, and this is called bipartisanship." - Everett Dirksen

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Littlejoe View Post
                          And how pray tell, are you going to establish causation?
                          I am not a social scientist, so I don't have the bonafides to outline a methodology for doing that.

                          Originally posted by Littlejoe View Post
                          To dismiss the entire narrative because you feel there's no valid causation is silly IMO.
                          Your opinion is duly noted.

                          Originally posted by Littlejoe View Post
                          If you know that there are a number of social and legal factors that play into the reduction of crime rate, then how do you then say there's no causation?
                          My point was that "gun laws" was not the only thing that changed over that period. If you cannot isolate and factor out the other possible causal sources, then you cannot establish guns or gun laws as the causation for any of these graphs.

                          Originally posted by Littlejoe View Post
                          That seems to me to be very dismissive of the points being made...and why I made them. Which is "The Gun Ban did it" narrative.
                          I agree - those claiming "the gun ban did it" likewise are making claims they cannot support. This is why we need to have well funded, impartial studies to determine exactly what approaches do and do not work.

                          Originally posted by Littlejoe View Post
                          Without causation, some facts remain:
                          1. Knive violence and murders by knife in AUS. have been the leading cause of murder for a long time. IMO therefore, a gun ban would not reduce this type of murder.
                          I think it's pretty clear that banning guns will not reduce knife violence. This is so obvious, I am not sure why it is pertinent.

                          Originally posted by Littlejoe View Post
                          2. The murder rate was already declining before the ban. After the ban it actually rose for a time back to the murder rate of 1.8/100,00.
                          Yes - that is a fact. But it is a fact that doesn't really tell us anything unless we can link it to causation - which has not happened.

                          Originally posted by Littlejoe View Post
                          3. It took 7 years after the ban before the rate returned to the pre-ban rate. There is no causation for the return to the same rate...to imply that it was the gun ban is fallacious IMO. So, the narrative that the gun ban did it is unproven. Agree?
                          Yes - I agree that claims from both sides are being piled on top of a lot of graphs being used to make the case for both sides when they actually don't. It is not just the pro-gun people misusing data - it is the pro-gun control people as well.
                          The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                          I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                          Comment


                          • The boyfriend of one of my co-workers is probably going to die shortly because somebody chose to escalate a non life threatening situation with a gun and accidentally fired.

                            http://fox4kc.com/2018/05/31/man-cha...ed-trespasser/

                            "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by KingsGambit View Post
                              The boyfriend of one of my co-workers is probably going to die shortly because somebody chose to escalate a non life threatening situation with a gun and accidentally fired.

                              http://fox4kc.com/2018/05/31/man-cha...ed-trespasser/

                              Your co-worker is in our thoughts.
                              The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                              I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by KingsGambit View Post
                                The boyfriend of one of my co-workers is probably going to die shortly because somebody chose to escalate a non life threatening situation with a gun and accidentally fired.

                                http://fox4kc.com/2018/05/31/man-cha...ed-trespasser/

                                Comment

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