A Sane Discussion About Gun Violence

[Littlejoe]

carp didn't even get the quote right. It is "life, uh… finds a way".

Right? I may or may not have known his quote was...inaccurate...

[carpedm9587]

carp didn't even get the quote right. It is "life, uh… finds a way".

If you think that's bad, my original post said, "in the immoral words of Jurassic Park..."

[Cerebrum123]

If you think that's bad, my original post said, "in the immoral words of Jurassic Park..."

[Zymologist]

carp didn't even get the quote right. It is "life, uh… finds a way".

Jeff Goldblum might be the only human who can make "uh" not sound stupid.

[carpedm9587]

Yes, again, I concede it has been effective for reducing GUN mass killings, but the OVERALL mass killing rate has stayed the same. As Carp said:

So can you substantiate with data that this is an apples-to-apples comparison? I'd like to look at that data.

Here is my suspicion: that this comparison compares ONLY the gun-related mass-killings before the law was passed with ALL mass killings after the law was passed. I'd like to know for sure that the first number is ALL mass killings before the passing of the law compared to ALL mass killings after the passing of the law, to determine if the killings shifted to another venue (as this claim implies), or there actually has been no change in the other classes of mass killings and the gun law DID have an effect not only on gun-related mass killings, but mass killings overall.

[carpedm9587]

Jeff Goldblum might be the only human who can make "uh" not sound stupid.

I, uh... can to...

[Littlejoe]

op End Shootings	June 1987	Top End, Northern Territory	5		Spree killing by Joseph Schwab over a five-day period. Shot dead by police.
Hoddle Street massacre	9 August 1987	Clifton Hill, Victoria	7		A Spree shooting by Julian Knight.
Canley Vale Huynh family murders	10 October 1987	Canley Vale, New South Wales	5		Rampage killing by John Tran, who shot dead five members of a family.
Queen Street massacre	8 December 1987	Melbourne, Victoria	8		A spree shooting/murder–suicide by Frank Vitkovic.
Oenpelli shootings	25 September 1988	Oenpelli, Northern Territory	6	0	Rampage killing by Dennis Rostron, shooting six members of his family at a remote Arnhem Land outstation in Oenpelli.[9]
Surry Hills shootings	30 August 1990	Surry Hills, New South Wales	5	7	A spree shooting by Paul Anthony Evers who killed five people and injured seven with a 12 gauge pump-action shotgunat a public housing precinct in Surry Hills before surrendering to police.[10]
Strathfield massacre	17 August 1991	Strathfield, New South Wales	7		A spree shooting/murder–suicide by Wade Frankum.
Central Coast massacre	27 October 1992	Terrigal, New South Wales	6		A spree shooting by Malcolm George Baker.
Greenough Family Massacre	21 February 1993	Greenough, Western Australia	4	0	William Patrick Mitchell (Bill Mitchell) murdered Karen MacKenzie and her three children with an axe at their remote rural property in Greenough, Western Australia.
1993 Cangai siege	March 1993	Cangai, New South Wales	5	0	Leonard Leabeater, Robert Steele and Raymond Bassett went on a nine-day rampage resulting in their taking hostages in a siege in a farmhouse at Hanging Rock Station in Cangai.
Hillcrest murders	25 January 1996	Hillcrest, Queensland	6	0	Rampage killing by Peter May, who shot dead six members of his family before killing himself.[11]
Port Arthur massacre	28 April 1996	Port Arthur, Tasmania	35	24	A spree shooting by Martin Bryant.
Murder suicide	28 June 1997	Richmond, Tasmania	5		Peter Shoobridge cut the throats of his four daughters whilst they slept then took his own life with a rifle after cutting off one of his hands with an axe.[12]
Wright St Bikie murders	8 October 1999	Adelaide, Australia	3	7	Hell's Angels feud (mass shooting).[13]
Childers Palace Backpackers Hostel fire	23 June 2000	Childers, Queensland	15	unknown	Arson attack by Robert Paul Long, which killed 15 international backpackers.
Monash University shooting	21 October 2002	Melbourne, Victoria	2	5	Mass shooting attack by Huan Yun "Allen" Xiang.
Singh family murders	22 April 2003	Brisbane, Australia	3		Triple homicide of Singh siblings by the eldest sisters boyfirend, Max Sica.[14]
Poulson family murders	15 September 2003	Wilberforce, New South Wales	4		Four-year-old Marilyn, one-year-old Sebastian and their grandfather Peter were murdered by Phitack Kongsom, who then killed himself.[15]
Churchill Fire	7 February 2009	Churchill, Victoria	10	unknown	Arson attack by Brendan Sokaluk that killed ten people, during the Black Saturday bushfires period.
Lin family murders	18 July 2009	North Epping, New South Wales	5	unknown	Blunt instrument attack that killed five members of the Lin family.
2011 Hectorville siege	29 April 2011	Hectorville, South Australia	3	3	Siege attack where Anthony Carbo murdered three people and injured three more including two police officers.
Quakers Hill nursing home fire	18 November 2011	Sydney, NSW	11		Arson attack by Roger Kingsley Dean, a nurse, which killed 11 people.
Rozelle fire murders	4 September 2014	Rozelle, New South Wales	3	2	Arson murder by Adeel Khan which killed three and injured another two.[16]
Hunt family murders	9 September 2014	Lockhart, New South Wales	5	0	A mass shooting and familicide by Geoff Hunt who killed his wife and three children before turning the gun on himself.
Wedderburn shooting	23 October 2014	Wedderburn, Victoria	3	0	A mass shooting and siege by Ian Francis Jamieson who shot a husband and wife, after stabbing their son to death.
2014 Sydney hostage crisis	15 - 16 December 2014	Sydney, NSW	3	1	Siege. A lone gunman, Man Haron Monis, held hostage twenty customers and eight employees of a Lindt chocolate café located at Martin Place for 16 hours. The NSW Police Tactical Operations Unit shot Monis dead, after he executed a hostage. In the exchange, one person was hit by police bullet fragments, causing accidental death.
Cairns child killings	19 December 2014	Cairns, Queensland	8	1 (self-inflicted by perpetrator)	Stabbing attack and Familicide. Eight children aged 18 months to 15 years killed. Thirty-seven-year-old woman also found injured. The woman, Raina Mersane Ina Thaiday, was later charged with the murder of the children, seven of whom were hers, plus her niece.[17]
January 2017 Melbourne car attack	20 January 2017	Melbourne, Victoria	6	30	Vehicular attack. Dimitrious Gargasoulas allegedly drove a Holden Commodore into Bourke St Mall, resulting in the deaths of six people and injuring 30+ others.
Osmington shooting	11 May 2018	Osmington, Western Australia	7	0	A mass shooting, with three adults and four children killed. A grandfather shot his four grandchildren at their home, his daughter, his wife, and then himself.[18]

I freely admit, I did not verify all of this data from this Wikipedia article. I simply used it. The ones that did not say "shooting" I looked up to see what form it was.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...s_in_Australia

ETA: As you can see, I did not skew the numbers in the way you insinuated I did.

For the sarcastically impaired the following is said in jest

Thanks for the benefit of the doubt

[carpedm9587]

op End Shootings	June 1987	Top End, Northern Territory	5		Spree killing by Joseph Schwab over a five-day period. Shot dead by police.
Hoddle Street massacre	9 August 1987	Clifton Hill, Victoria	7		A Spree shooting by Julian Knight.
Canley Vale Huynh family murders	10 October 1987	Canley Vale, New South Wales	5		Rampage killing by John Tran, who shot dead five members of a family.
Queen Street massacre	8 December 1987	Melbourne, Victoria	8		A spree shooting/murder–suicide by Frank Vitkovic.
Oenpelli shootings	25 September 1988	Oenpelli, Northern Territory	6	0	Rampage killing by Dennis Rostron, shooting six members of his family at a remote Arnhem Land outstation in Oenpelli.[9]
Surry Hills shootings	30 August 1990	Surry Hills, New South Wales	5	7	A spree shooting by Paul Anthony Evers who killed five people and injured seven with a 12 gauge pump-action shotgunat a public housing precinct in Surry Hills before surrendering to police.[10]
Strathfield massacre	17 August 1991	Strathfield, New South Wales	7		A spree shooting/murder–suicide by Wade Frankum.
Central Coast massacre	27 October 1992	Terrigal, New South Wales	6		A spree shooting by Malcolm George Baker.
Greenough Family Massacre	21 February 1993	Greenough, Western Australia	4	0	William Patrick Mitchell (Bill Mitchell) murdered Karen MacKenzie and her three children with an axe at their remote rural property in Greenough, Western Australia.
1993 Cangai siege	March 1993	Cangai, New South Wales	5	0	Leonard Leabeater, Robert Steele and Raymond Bassett went on a nine-day rampage resulting in their taking hostages in a siege in a farmhouse at Hanging Rock Station in Cangai.
Hillcrest murders	25 January 1996	Hillcrest, Queensland	6	0	Rampage killing by Peter May, who shot dead six members of his family before killing himself.[11]
Port Arthur massacre	28 April 1996	Port Arthur, Tasmania	35	24	A spree shooting by Martin Bryant.
Murder suicide	28 June 1997	Richmond, Tasmania	5		Peter Shoobridge cut the throats of his four daughters whilst they slept then took his own life with a rifle after cutting off one of his hands with an axe.[12]
Wright St Bikie murders	8 October 1999	Adelaide, Australia	3	7	Hell's Angels feud (mass shooting).[13]
Childers Palace Backpackers Hostel fire	23 June 2000	Childers, Queensland	15	unknown	Arson attack by Robert Paul Long, which killed 15 international backpackers.
Monash University shooting	21 October 2002	Melbourne, Victoria	2	5	Mass shooting attack by Huan Yun "Allen" Xiang.
Singh family murders	22 April 2003	Brisbane, Australia	3		Triple homicide of Singh siblings by the eldest sisters boyfirend, Max Sica.[14]
Poulson family murders	15 September 2003	Wilberforce, New South Wales	4		Four-year-old Marilyn, one-year-old Sebastian and their grandfather Peter were murdered by Phitack Kongsom, who then killed himself.[15]
Churchill Fire	7 February 2009	Churchill, Victoria	10	unknown	Arson attack by Brendan Sokaluk that killed ten people, during the Black Saturday bushfires period.
Lin family murders	18 July 2009	North Epping, New South Wales	5	unknown	Blunt instrument attack that killed five members of the Lin family.
2011 Hectorville siege	29 April 2011	Hectorville, South Australia	3	3	Siege attack where Anthony Carbo murdered three people and injured three more including two police officers.
Quakers Hill nursing home fire	18 November 2011	Sydney, NSW	11		Arson attack by Roger Kingsley Dean, a nurse, which killed 11 people.
Rozelle fire murders	4 September 2014	Rozelle, New South Wales	3	2	Arson murder by Adeel Khan which killed three and injured another two.[16]
Hunt family murders	9 September 2014	Lockhart, New South Wales	5	0	A mass shooting and familicide by Geoff Hunt who killed his wife and three children before turning the gun on himself.
Wedderburn shooting	23 October 2014	Wedderburn, Victoria	3	0	A mass shooting and siege by Ian Francis Jamieson who shot a husband and wife, after stabbing their son to death.
2014 Sydney hostage crisis	15 - 16 December 2014	Sydney, NSW	3	1	Siege. A lone gunman, Man Haron Monis, held hostage twenty customers and eight employees of a Lindt chocolate café located at Martin Place for 16 hours. The NSW Police Tactical Operations Unit shot Monis dead, after he executed a hostage. In the exchange, one person was hit by police bullet fragments, causing accidental death.
Cairns child killings	19 December 2014	Cairns, Queensland	8	1 (self-inflicted by perpetrator)	Stabbing attack and Familicide. Eight children aged 18 months to 15 years killed. Thirty-seven-year-old woman also found injured. The woman, Raina Mersane Ina Thaiday, was later charged with the murder of the children, seven of whom were hers, plus her niece.[17]
January 2017 Melbourne car attack	20 January 2017	Melbourne, Victoria	6	30	Vehicular attack. Dimitrious Gargasoulas allegedly drove a Holden Commodore into Bourke St Mall, resulting in the deaths of six people and injuring 30+ others.
Osmington shooting	11 May 2018	Osmington, Western Australia	7	0	A mass shooting, with three adults and four children killed. A grandfather shot his four grandchildren at their home, his daughter, his wife, and then himself.[18]

I freely admit, I did not verify all of this data from this Wikipedia article. I simply used it. The ones that did not say "shooting" I looked up to see what form it was.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...s_in_Australia

ETA: As you can see, I did not skew the numbers in the way you insinuated I did.

For the sarcastically impaired the following is said in jest

Thanks for the benefit of the doubt

First, I was not suggesting that YOU had skewed the data, because I had no idea where the data came from. I was suggesting it was possible the data might have been skewed. It happens a lot and then the results get quoted here when the data does not actually support the claim. Any analyst worth his salt is going to ask for sources, so if you're going to quote statistics, get used to it.

Your response just raises a whole other list of questions. How do you know this list is complete? Are you comparing raw numbers or the actual rate. After all, you have listings here for 9 years prior to the 1996 law and 22 years since. And what is the actual numerical breakdown? (Non-Gun rampages before 1996, Gun-rampages before 1996, Non-Gun rampages since 1996, Gun-rampages since 1996)? Since you looked up the ones that are not identified (kudos for that step), you must have those numbers?

[Littlejoe]

First, I was not suggesting that YOU had skewed the data, because I had no idea where the data came from. I was suggesting it was possible the data might have been skewed. It happens a lot and then the results get quoted here when the data does not actually support the claim. Any analyst worth his salt is going to ask for sources, so if you're going to quote statistics, get used to it.

Your response just raises a whole other list of questions. How do you know this list is complete? Are you comparing raw numbers or the actual rate. After all, you have listings here for 9 years prior to the 1996 law and 22 years since. And what is the actual numerical breakdown? (Non-Gun rampages before 1996, Gun-rampages before 1996, Non-Gun rampages since 1996, Gun-rampages since 1996)? Since you looked up the ones that are not identified (kudos for that step), you must have those numbers?

Sorry, I miss-windowed...that IS my fault. I should have went back to 1970's. However, I didn't use a the wrong date in my "analysis". Here is the correct window for the correct dates before the gun ban.

Campsie murders	24 September 1981	Campsie, New South Wales	5	0	Rampage killing by Fouad Daoud, who shot dead five members of his family before killing himself.[6]
Inland Motel murders	18 August 1983	Uluru, Northern Territory	5	16	Vehicular attack by Douglas Crabbe, who drove a truck into the bar of the Inland Motel after being refused service.[7]
Wahroonga murders	1 June 1984	Wahroonga, New South Wales	5	0	Rampage killing by John Brandon, who shot dead five members of his family before killing himself.[8]
Milperra massacre	2 September 1984	Milperra, New South Wales	7	28	Shootout between two rival motorcycle gangs. One bystander was among those killed in the incident.
Top End Shootings	June 1987	Top End, Northern Territory	5		Spree killing by Joseph Schwab over a five-day period. Shot dead by police.
Hoddle Street massacre	9 August 1987	Clifton Hill, Victoria	7		A Spree shooting by Julian Knight.
Canley Vale Huynh family murders	10 October 1987	Canley Vale, New South Wales	5		Rampage killing by John Tran, who shot dead five members of a family.
Queen Street massacre	8 December 1987	Melbourne, Victoria	8		A spree shooting/murder–suicide by Frank Vitkovic.
Oenpelli shootings	25 September 1988	Oenpelli, Northern Territory	6	0	Rampage killing by Dennis Rostron, shooting six members of his family at a remote Arnhem Land outstation in Oenpelli.[9]
Surry Hills shootings	30 August 1990	Surry Hills, New South Wales	5	7	A spree shooting by Paul Anthony Evers who killed five people and injured seven with a 12 gauge pump-action shotgunat a public housing precinct in Surry Hills before surrendering to police.[10]
Strathfield massacre	17 August 1991	Strathfield, New South Wales	7		A spree shooting/murder–suicide by Wade Frankum.
Central Coast massacre	27 October 1992	Terrigal, New South Wales	6		A spree shooting by Malcolm George Baker.
Greenough Family Massacre	21 February 1993	Greenough, Western Australia	4	0	William Patrick Mitchell (Bill Mitchell) murdered Karen MacKenzie and her three children with an axe at their remote rural property in Greenough, Western Australia.
1993 Cangai siege	March 1993	Cangai, New South Wales	5	0	Leonard Leabeater, Robert Steele and Raymond Bassett went on a nine-day rampage resulting in their taking hostages in a siege in a farmhouse at Hanging Rock Station in Cangai.
Hillcrest murders	25 January 1996	Hillcrest, Queensland	6	0	Rampage killing by Peter May, who shot dead six members of his family before killing himself.[11]
Port Arthur massacre	28 April 1996	Port Arthur, Tasmania	35	24	A spree shooting by Martin Bryant.

I'll have to get back to you on the numbers. I only looked at numbers of people killed by both and by shootings alone, I didn't look at rate per se.

Also, how do I know this is all of them?...I don't know. That's why I admitted I did not verify the article. You are welcome to make sure the article didn't miss any.

ETA: Here is essentially what I gleaned from the data here as presented in another post by me in another thread:

The facts bear out that mass SHOOTINGS have decreased by quite a lot. Using the figures from this Wikipedia article, in the 21 years prior to the ban there were 117 people slain in mass killings (1975 - 1996). Of those, 112 were mass shootings.

In the 21 years (plus a couple of months) since the gun ban, (1996 - Present) there have been 113 people slain in mass killings, but only 27 were mass shootings. However, the mass killing rate is statistically flat. How is the gun ban supposed to have helped? As rogue said, are they any less dead because they were not killed with a gun? I would much rather die of a gun shot wound than to die in a fire, burning to death...

[carpedm9587]

Sorry, I miss-windowed...that IS my fault. I should have went back to 1970's. However, I didn't use a the wrong date in my "analysis". Here is the correct window for the correct dates before the gun ban.

Campsie murders	24 September 1981	Campsie, New South Wales	5	0	Rampage killing by Fouad Daoud, who shot dead five members of his family before killing himself.[6]
Inland Motel murders	18 August 1983	Uluru, Northern Territory	5	16	Vehicular attack by Douglas Crabbe, who drove a truck into the bar of the Inland Motel after being refused service.[7]
Wahroonga murders	1 June 1984	Wahroonga, New South Wales	5	0	Rampage killing by John Brandon, who shot dead five members of his family before killing himself.[8]
Milperra massacre	2 September 1984	Milperra, New South Wales	7	28	Shootout between two rival motorcycle gangs. One bystander was among those killed in the incident.
Top End Shootings	June 1987	Top End, Northern Territory	5		Spree killing by Joseph Schwab over a five-day period. Shot dead by police.
Hoddle Street massacre	9 August 1987	Clifton Hill, Victoria	7		A Spree shooting by Julian Knight.
Canley Vale Huynh family murders	10 October 1987	Canley Vale, New South Wales	5		Rampage killing by John Tran, who shot dead five members of a family.
Queen Street massacre	8 December 1987	Melbourne, Victoria	8		A spree shooting/murder–suicide by Frank Vitkovic.
Oenpelli shootings	25 September 1988	Oenpelli, Northern Territory	6	0	Rampage killing by Dennis Rostron, shooting six members of his family at a remote Arnhem Land outstation in Oenpelli.[9]
Surry Hills shootings	30 August 1990	Surry Hills, New South Wales	5	7	A spree shooting by Paul Anthony Evers who killed five people and injured seven with a 12 gauge pump-action shotgunat a public housing precinct in Surry Hills before surrendering to police.[10]
Strathfield massacre	17 August 1991	Strathfield, New South Wales	7		A spree shooting/murder–suicide by Wade Frankum.
Central Coast massacre	27 October 1992	Terrigal, New South Wales	6		A spree shooting by Malcolm George Baker.
Greenough Family Massacre	21 February 1993	Greenough, Western Australia	4	0	William Patrick Mitchell (Bill Mitchell) murdered Karen MacKenzie and her three children with an axe at their remote rural property in Greenough, Western Australia.
1993 Cangai siege	March 1993	Cangai, New South Wales	5	0	Leonard Leabeater, Robert Steele and Raymond Bassett went on a nine-day rampage resulting in their taking hostages in a siege in a farmhouse at Hanging Rock Station in Cangai.
Hillcrest murders	25 January 1996	Hillcrest, Queensland	6	0	Rampage killing by Peter May, who shot dead six members of his family before killing himself.[11]
Port Arthur massacre	28 April 1996	Port Arthur, Tasmania	35	24	A spree shooting by Martin Bryant.

I'll have to get back to you on the numbers. I only looked at numbers of people killed by both and by shootings alone, I didn't look at rate per se.

Also, how do I know this is all of them?...I don't know. That's why I admitted I did not verify the article. You are welcome to make sure the article didn't miss any.

I don't think so. If I set out to verify everyone else's data, I'll spend all my time verifying other people's data. I have enough to do keeping my own claims and beliefs clean and accurate. My approach when someone else makes a claim is to ask for the data that backs it, and let them know if I think it convinces. So far, your analysis falls a bit short. It will help to break it out and examine the rate, as I previously noted. However, you're going to have a hard time with the completeness of the data when Wikipedia is your source. Perhaps their sources are cited and you can identify the studies or the origins of the information?

ETA: Here is essentially what I gleaned from the data here as presented in another post by me in another thread:

The facts bear out that mass SHOOTINGS have decreased by quite a lot. Using the figures from this Wikipedia article, in the 21 years prior to the ban there were 117 people slain in mass killings (1975 - 1996). Of those, 112 were mass shootings.

In the 21 years (plus a couple of months) since the gun ban, (1996 - Present) there have been 113 people slain in mass killings, but only 27 were mass shootings. However, the mass killing rate is statistically flat. How is the gun ban supposed to have helped? As rogue said, are they any less dead because they were not killed with a gun? I would much rather die of a gun shot wound than to die in a fire, burning to death...

This gets you closer, and makes your case if you can establish that the list is complete. However, this is at the top of the page: This list is incomplete; you can help by expanding it.. That kind of undermines your case. You can't make a claim like the statistical one you are making using incomplete data. And given that Wikipedia started January 2001, it is far more likely that the post 2000 information is complete than the pre-2000 information. That being said the fact is we do not know and statistical claims are being made with (apparently) incomplete data.

[Cow Poke]

I, uh... can to...

But if you use "to" instead of "too", it do make your "uh" less intelligetish.

[carpedm9587]

But if you use "to" instead of "too", it do make your "uh" less intelligetish.

Oh shoot me now....

[Cow Poke]

Oh shoot me now....

I'd have to shoot me, to.

[carpedm9587]

I'd have to shoot me, to.

OK - that was good...

[Cow Poke]

Is this the thread from which I was banned?