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2018 Midterm Elections

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  • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
    1600 Pennsylvania Ave, Washington DC. Ask for Don.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

    Comment


    • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
      I'm sure I won't Demi.

      You know, it might be interesting to actually meet face-to-face. I travel extensively. Any possibility that might happen?
      We'll see
      Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

      Comment


      • So the jobs projections for March are out: 103K (projected). January firmed up at 176K. Healthy job growth is believed to be around 150K. If we look at the span from Feb, 2017 through March, the job growth under Trump has averaged 181K/month, strongly boosted by the February 326K number. The median is 183K, the range is 14K through 326K, and the standard deviation is 79.5K with 14 months in the sample space. In general, not bad.

        For the corresponding months in Obama's second term, the average is 194K, the median is 192K, the range is 93K through 265K, and the standard deviation is 54K. For the entirety of Obama's second term the average is 217K, the median is 230K, the range is 34K through 351K, and the standard deviation is 72K.

        Bottom line, job growth is in a healthy window, in general, but slightly depressed from the Obama presidency period. That is to be expected, of course, by the end of Obama's second term, unemployment had returned to the 4.7% range, and did not have a lot of room to go to get to "full employment."

        Since there is such a belief, here, that the economy is going to be a major driver of the fall election, I thought I'd provide the update.
        The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

        I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

        Comment


        • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
          So the jobs projections for March are out: 103K (projected). January firmed up at 176K. Healthy job growth is believed to be around 150K. If we look at the span from Feb, 2017 through March, the job growth under Trump has averaged 181K/month, strongly boosted by the February 326K number. The median is 183K, the range is 14K through 326K, and the standard deviation is 79.5K with 14 months in the sample space. In general, not bad.

          For the corresponding months in Obama's second term, the average is 194K, the median is 192K, the range is 93K through 265K, and the standard deviation is 54K. For the entirety of Obama's second term the average is 217K, the median is 230K, the range is 34K through 351K, and the standard deviation is 72K.

          Bottom line, job growth is in a healthy window, in general, but slightly depressed from the Obama presidency period. That is to be expected, of course, by the end of Obama's second term, unemployment had returned to the 4.7% range, and did not have a lot of room to go to get to "full employment."

          Since there is such a belief, here, that the economy is going to be a major driver of the fall election, I thought I'd provide the update.
          Demi will make guess, economists '''''''experts'''''' will do yuge underestimate, like they did for February.

          The U.S. labor market got even hotter in February.

          The American economy added 313,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 percent.

          Economists had expected 200,000 additions to nonfarm payrolls

          http://www.breitbart.com/economics/2...jobs-report-2/
          Tremendous!
          Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

          Comment


          • So the special election in the Arizona 8th is complete, and the evidence of a substantial wave this November continues to build. This is a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of R+13 and is so red that Democrats often don't even have a candidate to run because the outcome is close to a foregone conclusion. The Republican candidate typically gets at least 75% of the vote when there is an opposing candidate. This time, the Republican won by single digits.

            That again represents a shift of over 20 points to the left. There are more than 70 Congressional districts in the U.S. with a Cox PVI of ten or less that are currently in Republican hands. Democrats need 23 of them to take control of the house.

            That being said, RealClearPolitics is reflecting an almost dead heat at this point.

            It will be very interesting to see what ultimately happens.

            If the Dems DO gain control, I hope they are not so stupid as to initiate impeachment proceedings against Trump.
            The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

            I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

            Comment


            • So now even the Republicans winning is a sign of the Blue Wave. Whodda Thunkit?

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                So now even the Republicans winning is a sign of the Blue Wave. Whodda Thunkit?
                Actually, Republicans have won most of the special elections. The issue is the gap. Districts they normally win by 20-40 points they are winning by single digits. That is what is indicative of the coming wave. As I noted, there are 70+ districts that are closer than the Arizona 8th. Even if the shift to the left is only HALF of what it has been since Trump was elected, at least half of these will shift to Democratic hands.

                THAT is what should have Republicans a little nervous about midterms.
                The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                Comment


                • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                  Actually, Republicans have won most of the special elections. The issue is the gap. Districts they normally win by 20-40 points they are winning by single digits. That is what is indicative of the coming wave. As I noted, there are 70+ districts that are closer than the Arizona 8th. Even if the shift to the left is only HALF of what it has been since Trump was elected, at least half of these will shift to Democratic hands.

                  THAT is what should have Republicans a little nervous about midterms.
                  I have no idea who is going to take the 2018 elections come November. If the last election has taught us anything it is that you can't predict it. Polls, studies, charts and graphs, none of them matter. And anything can be completely turned around at the last minute. So I will just sit and wait and vote when the times comes.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                    So the special election in the Arizona 8th is complete, and the evidence of a substantial wave this November continues to build. This is a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of R+13 and is so red that Democrats often don't even have a candidate to run because the outcome is close to a foregone conclusion. The Republican candidate typically gets at least 75% of the vote when there is an opposing candidate. This time, the Republican won by single digits.

                    That again represents a shift of over 20 points to the left. There are more than 70 Congressional districts in the U.S. with a Cox PVI of ten or less that are currently in Republican hands. Democrats need 23 of them to take control of the house.

                    That being said, RealClearPolitics is reflecting an almost dead heat at this point.

                    It will be very interesting to see what ultimately happens.

                    If the Dems DO gain control, I hope they are not so stupid as to initiate impeachment proceedings against Trump.
                    I'll grant the shift, but note that the party of a person who resigns in disgrace tends to suffer a bit in the resulting election.
                    Enter the Church and wash away your sins. For here there is a hospital and not a court of law. Do not be ashamed to enter the Church; be ashamed when you sin, but not when you repent. – St. John Chrysostom

                    Veritas vos Liberabit<>< Learn Greek <>< Look here for an Orthodox Church in America<><Ancient Faith Radio
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                    I recommend you do not try too hard and ...research as little as possible. Such weighty things give me a headache. - Shunyadragon, Baha'i apologist

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                      That being said, RealClearPolitics is reflecting an almost dead heat at this point.
                      Isn't that analysis missing a ton of districts?

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                        I have no idea who is going to take the 2018 elections come November. If the last election has taught us anything it is that you can't predict it. Polls, studies, charts and graphs, none of them matter. And anything can be completely turned around at the last minute. So I will just sit and wait and vote when the times comes.
                        Actually, if someone was paying to what the polls themselves were saying in 2016, they would not have been surprised. If they were paying attention to the talking heads interpreting the polls, they would have been.
                        The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                        I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Terraceth View Post
                          Isn't that analysis missing a ton of districts?
                          Since all of the districts are included in the summary, it is not clear to me how they could have been missing any of them.
                          The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                          I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                            Since all of the districts are included in the summary, it is not clear to me how they could have been missing any of them.
                            Where's the summary? When I scroll down past the map, the stuff it shows is only for 85 seats rather than the slightly over 400 seats that are in the House. That's a lot of seats that are apparently unaccounted for.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Terraceth View Post
                              Where's the summary? When I scroll down past the map, the stuff it shows is only for 85 seats rather than the slightly over 400 seats that are in the House. That's a lot of seats that are apparently unaccounted for.
                              They're not "unaccounted for." RCP classifies districts as "solid," "likely," "leans," and "toss-up." As of today, each party has 174 seats in the "solid" category and they don't break out the details for those. They are reflected in the upper bar and greyed out on the map. It then breaks out details for the districts that are considered "in play." There are 87 seats currently "in play" insofar as the projections place them within nor near the margin of error. Within is "toss-up." Just outside (usually up to about 7 points) is "leans." Further outside (usually up to about 12 points) is "likely."
                              Last edited by carpedm9587; 04-26-2018, 07:31 AM.
                              The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                              I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                                Actually, if someone was paying to what the polls themselves were saying in 2016, they would not have been surprised. If they were paying attention to the talking heads interpreting the polls, they would have been.
                                nope. even the pollsters were being interviewed after the election and saying they had no idea what went wrong.

                                Here is 538's

                                Comment

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