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NYC crime down 90% in less than 3 decades

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  • NYC crime down 90% in less than 3 decades

    Over the past 27 years, crime in New York city has dropped by almost a whopping 90%.

    Sparko and others here have been telling me that crime is an inherent product of the human sinful condition... so I guess we should praise God for his miraculous intervention to undo human sinfulness en masse in NY city post-1990?

    An NYT article from the end of last year:
    Crime in New York City Plunges to a Level Not Seen Since the 1950s:

    It would have seemed unbelievable in 1990, when there were 2,245 killings in New York City, but... there have been just 286 in the city this year [2017] — the lowest since reliable records have been kept...

    In fact, crime has fallen in New York City in each of the major felony categories — murder and manslaughter, rape, assault, robbery, burglary, grand larceny, and car theft...

    ...crime will have declined for 27 straight years, to levels that police officials have said are the lowest since the 1950s. The numbers, when taken together, portray a city of 8.5 million people growing safer even as the police, under Mayor Bill de Blasio, use less deadly force, make fewer arrests and scale back controversial practices like stopping and frisking thousands of people on the streets.

    One of the results is that police officers are using deadly force less often. As of Dec. 20, police officers intentionally fired their service guns in 23 encounters, a record low...

    More broadly, research suggests that crime trends are closely tied to economic conditions. Interest rates, inflation and unemployment are among the macro-level factors influencing crime, according to James Austin, the president of the JFA Institute, a criminal justice policy nonprofit.

    “What the Fed does will have more of an impact than any sentencing or police reforms,” Mr. Austin said.


    Fast-forward to this week:
    Once the ‘Killing Fields,’ East New York Has No Murders in 2018:

    the 75th Precinct, an area long scarred by violence that gained notoriety in the 1990s as New York City’s “killing fields” and regularly logged more than 100 murders a year...

    But so far this year, something remarkable has happened in the 75th Precinct — or, more precisely, not happened: No one has been killed...

    In other city neighborhoods that were hotbeds of violence, like Harlem and Washington Heights, crime declines have coincided with demographic shifts brought on by gentrification and economic uplift. But those kinds of changes have been slow to reach more distant places like East New York, a predominantly black and Latino neighborhood that still struggles with severe poverty and leads the city in robberies this year.

    Police officials say the zero murder toll this year is one of the results of efforts to go after guns and gangs concentrated in area housing projects, often with the help of community ties. Since 2016, the police and other law enforcement agencies have confiscated 535 guns in the 75th Precinct and charged 843 people, a quarter of whom were believed to have gang ties.

    “When you take the gang out of commission,” Inspector John Chell, the commander of the 75th Precinct, said on Thursday, “these are the residual effects.” Murders in the city overall continue to drop, down 10 percent from last year at this time.


    So not only are murders down almost 90% from 1990, with improvements for 27 years straight, but murders in 2018 are down 10% from 2017. What this clearly demonstrates is that crime is not something inevitable that is somehow tied to the 'sinful human condition', but rather that crime rates are a product of particular environments and are affected by dozens of variables from employment opportunities to policing strategies to dozens of other government policies and cultural and economic conditions. Rather than just dismiss crime as done by "bad people" who are just guilty of "bad choices" and who thus need to take "individual responsibility", we can and should look at the systemic and social causes of crime and change our policies and culture and environment to produce less of it, because in doing so we can potentially change the crime rates by a factor of 10, as NYC demonstrates.
    "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
    "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
    "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

  • #2
    Of course multiple factors are involved. I keep saying I support things like gun probation. An issue I have is that explanations are not necessarily justifications. A person may steal because they are poor, but that doesn't change the fact that under most circumstances theft is wrong. I believe an entire kind of crime exist I think called necessary crimes. For example stealing orange juice to save the life of a man who is undergoing hypoglycemic shock.


    Reducing crime is good, but you can't prevent some things such as the inevitable or unpredictable.
    sigpic

    Comment


    • #3
      This is great news.

      Here is some more info on it.
      The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
        This is great news.

        Here is some more info on it.
        Yup, that analysis offers two factors that work in tandem to explain some of the drop in crime:
        1. Better economic conditions (reduced unemployment)
        2. A higher chance of criminals being caught

        Other analyses I've read in the past suggest #2 can be particularly effective. If the chances of being caught approach 0%, then even many normally law-abiding citizens will be sorely tempted to commit crimes if they believe it's all but certain they won't be caught. Whereas as the chances of being caught approach 100%, then even hardened criminals will think twice or three times before committing a crime if they're all but certain they'll be caught. Studies seem to show that the severity of the punishment doesn't tend to weigh much on people's minds (e.g. 7 years in prison versus execution as a murder penalty), but the chances of being caught does.

        Personally I'm quite a fan on the removal-of-lead-from-gas-and-paint-helped-fix-crime theory and think that has pretty good evidence too. Children exposed to lead in the environment get developmental disorders in their brain which reduce IQ and predispose them to violent behavior. So when they grow up they commit violent crime far more often. That's why I think it's urgent that the US government act to fix Flint's lead-filled drinking water, and embark on a infrastructure program throughout the US to check drinking water for lead and fix the problem. That's probably the most effective possible anti-crime intervention.
        Last edited by Starlight; 04-24-2018, 07:00 PM.
        "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
        "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
        "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Starlight View Post
          Yup, that analysis offers two factors that work in tandem to explain some of the drop in crime:
          1. Better economic conditions (reduced unemployment)
          2. A higher chance of criminals being caught

          Other analyses I've read in the past suggest #2 can be particularly effective. If the chances of being caught approach 0%, then even many normally law-abiding citizens will be sorely tempted to commit crimes if they believe it's all but certain they won't be caught. Whereas as the chances of being caught approach 100%, then even hardened criminals will think twice or three times before committing a crime if they're all but certain they'll be caught. Studies seem to show that the severity of the punishment doesn't tend to weigh much on people's minds (e.g. 7 years in prison versus execution as a murder penalty), but the chances of being caught does.
          You overlooked the change in demographics - less young people.
          The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

          Comment


          • #6
            I would imagine that what someone is caught doing also contributes.
            sigpic

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Starlight View Post
              Over the past 27 years, crime in New York city has dropped by almost a whopping 90%.

              Sparko and others here have been telling me that crime is an inherent product of the human sinful condition... so I guess we should praise God for his miraculous intervention to undo human sinfulness en masse in NY city post-1990?

              An NYT article from the end of last year:
              Crime in New York City Plunges to a Level Not Seen Since the 1950s:

              It would have seemed unbelievable in 1990, when there were 2,245 killings in New York City, but... there have been just 286 in the city this year [2017] — the lowest since reliable records have been kept...

              In fact, crime has fallen in New York City in each of the major felony categories — murder and manslaughter, rape, assault, robbery, burglary, grand larceny, and car theft...

              ...crime will have declined for 27 straight years, to levels that police officials have said are the lowest since the 1950s. The numbers, when taken together, portray a city of 8.5 million people growing safer even as the police, under Mayor Bill de Blasio, use less deadly force, make fewer arrests and scale back controversial practices like stopping and frisking thousands of people on the streets.

              One of the results is that police officers are using deadly force less often. As of Dec. 20, police officers intentionally fired their service guns in 23 encounters, a record low...

              More broadly, research suggests that crime trends are closely tied to economic conditions. Interest rates, inflation and unemployment are among the macro-level factors influencing crime, according to James Austin, the president of the JFA Institute, a criminal justice policy nonprofit.

              “What the Fed does will have more of an impact than any sentencing or police reforms,” Mr. Austin said.


              Fast-forward to this week:
              Once the ‘Killing Fields,’ East New York Has No Murders in 2018:

              the 75th Precinct, an area long scarred by violence that gained notoriety in the 1990s as New York City’s “killing fields” and regularly logged more than 100 murders a year...

              But so far this year, something remarkable has happened in the 75th Precinct — or, more precisely, not happened: No one has been killed...

              In other city neighborhoods that were hotbeds of violence, like Harlem and Washington Heights, crime declines have coincided with demographic shifts brought on by gentrification and economic uplift. But those kinds of changes have been slow to reach more distant places like East New York, a predominantly black and Latino neighborhood that still struggles with severe poverty and leads the city in robberies this year.

              Police officials say the zero murder toll this year is one of the results of efforts to go after guns and gangs concentrated in area housing projects, often with the help of community ties. Since 2016, the police and other law enforcement agencies have confiscated 535 guns in the 75th Precinct and charged 843 people, a quarter of whom were believed to have gang ties.

              “When you take the gang out of commission,” Inspector John Chell, the commander of the 75th Precinct, said on Thursday, “these are the residual effects.” Murders in the city overall continue to drop, down 10 percent from last year at this time.


              So not only are murders down almost 90% from 1990, with improvements for 27 years straight, but murders in 2018 are down 10% from 2017. What this clearly demonstrates is that crime is not something inevitable that is somehow tied to the 'sinful human condition', but rather that crime rates are a product of particular environments and are affected by dozens of variables from employment opportunities to policing strategies to dozens of other government policies and cultural and economic conditions. Rather than just dismiss crime as done by "bad people" who are just guilty of "bad choices" and who thus need to take "individual responsibility", we can and should look at the systemic and social causes of crime and change our policies and culture and environment to produce less of it, because in doing so we can potentially change the crime rates by a factor of 10, as NYC demonstrates.
              Sorry, but all you proved is that comfort will make people less likely to turn to crime because the risk of losing that comfortable life simply isn’t worth it. You haven’t shown though that underlying nature isn’t there because not everyone will stick to that moral philosophy if things begin to go south.
              "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
              GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

              Comment


              • #8
                Less crime doesn't necessarily equal less sin, Starlight.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                  Less crime doesn't necessarily equal less sin, Starlight.
                  Less recorded crime also doesn't necessarily mean less crime. Case in point, Broward County: youth arrests and convictions were way down, but only because the schools and local law enforcement had a policy of not arresting or punishing school-aged kids who committed crimes. "Keep them out of the courtroom and in the classroom," was the stated policy of the school superintendent.

                  I haven't done any kind of deep-dive into New York City's crime stats, but I have my suspicions, especially when I see a line in the OP like "the police, under Mayor Bill de Blasio, use less deadly force, make fewer arrests and scale back controversial practices like stopping and frisking thousands of people on the streets." So are people committing less crimes, or are the police simply choosing not to arrest some people that they would have arrested in the past?

                  Isn't it amazing how police not arresting people has a positive impact on crime statistics?
                  Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                  But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                  Than a fool in the eyes of God


                  From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                    Less recorded crime also doesn't necessarily mean less crime. Case in point, Broward County: youth arrests and convictions were way down, but only because the schools and local law enforcement had a policy of not arresting or punishing school-aged kids who committed crimes. "Keep them out of the courtroom and in the classroom," was the stated policy of the school superintendent.

                    I haven't done any kind of deep-dive into New York City's crime stats, but I have my suspicions, especially when I see a line in the OP like "the police, under Mayor Bill de Blasio, use less deadly force, make fewer arrests and scale back controversial practices like stopping and frisking thousands of people on the streets." So are people committing less crimes, or are the police simply choosing not to arrest some people that they would have arrested in the past?

                    Isn't it amazing how police not arresting people has a positive impact on crime statistics?
                    Not only that, but most police departments in the US submit a Uniform Crime Report to the FBI, and all of the "incidents" need to be classified into one of the FBI's crime categories. It's well known that these reports can be manipulated to show more or less violent crime simply by the way the incidents are categorized. If you want more funding for your department, it might benefit you to report an incident as more violent than it otherwise would be categorized. If you want to show what a safe wonderful community you have for PR purposes, you can classify the incidents as less violent. Who was it who said "figures lie and liars figure"?
                    The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                      Yup, that analysis offers two factors that work in tandem to explain some of the drop in crime:
                      1. Better economic conditions (reduced unemployment)
                      2. A higher chance of criminals being caught
                      Good, so Trump's economic policies should help crime drop further! Since we are seeing historic unemployment lows across the country: https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/lauhsthl.htm
                      Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by seer View Post
                        Good, so Trump's economic policies should help crime drop further! Since we are seeing historic unemployment lows across the country: https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/lauhsthl.htm
                        Not to mention Trump's emphasis on restoring law and order ("A higher chance of criminals being caught").
                        Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                        But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                        Than a fool in the eyes of God


                        From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by seer View Post
                          Good, so Trump's economic policies should help crime drop further! Since we are seeing historic unemployment lows across the country: https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/lauhsthl.htm
                          Speaking of Trump's awful economic policies, I saw this today:
                          U.S. Sees First Net Private Employment Loss in Seven Years:

                          The economy suffered a net loss of 140,000 private sector jobs in the third quarter -- the first such loss since early 2010, according to Labor Department data issued today...

                          The smallest of firms -- with up to 49 employees -- were hardest hit.
                          "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                          "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                          "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                            Speaking of Trump's awful economic policies, I saw this today:
                            Except Unemployment is at a 17 year low, with a greater labor participation rate

                            United States Unemployment Rate 1948-2018 | Data | Chart | Calendar
                            The US unemployment rate stood at a 17-year low of 4.1 percent for the sixth consecutive month in March 2018, slightly above market expectations of 4 percent. The number of unemployed decreased by 121 thousand to 6.59 million and employment fell 37 thousand to 155.18 million. The labor force participation rate dropped to 62.9 percent from a five-month high of 63 percent in February. Unemployment Rate in the United States averaged 5.78 percent from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 10.80 percent in November of 1982 and a record low of 2.50 percent in May of 1953.https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...mployment-rate
                            And Star, how are Trump's business friendly policies bad for employment.
                            Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by seer View Post
                              And Star, how are Trump's business friendly policies bad for employment.
                              You'll have to clarify what 'business-friendly' policies you are thinking of. The only major piece of legislation the Republicans have passed has been the tax scam that gave billions of dollars in tax breaks to multinationals and rocketed up the national deficit and the debt.

                              Generally I think "employee friendly" policies are better for employment than "business friendly" policies are (which usually boil down to making ridiculously wealthy people even more ridiculously wealthy).

                              A good example of a policy that might help with employment substantially is Bernie Sanders' new proposal that the government act as an 'employer of last resort' where it would offer minimum wage jobs to anyone who wanted them. That seems likely to me to reduce unemployment.
                              "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                              "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                              "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                              Comment

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