Direction of the Country

[carpedm9587]

I have often wondered about the utility of polls like this one. It aggregates multiple other polls to arrive at an "average of the averages." As I was poking around, I noted that the only time the poll actually shows "in the black," (which is actually a misnomer, because it shows a 50/50 split) is on June 10, 2009 when the country was evenly split as to whether we were heading "in the right direction."

If memory serves, that was 3 months after the deepest fall of the various stock markets and the nadir of the greatest recession since the Great Depression.

You just have to wonder...

[KingsGambit]

I wonder how much those polls parallel with the current economic well being of the respondent. I'm interested in what factors people consider but my theory is that is #1.

[carpedm9587]

I wonder how much those polls parallel with the current economic well being of the respondent. I'm interested in what factors people consider but my theory is that is #1.

You mean the entire country decides if we are in the right direction based on how I am doing?

[Starlight]

If things are currently at their worst, then they can only get better, right? And vice versa if things are currently at their best.

I also think "direction of the country" is problematic because different people focus on particular issues when they answer it as varied as abortion, culture, moral issues, economics, corruption, or who's in government. So one person might say the direction of the country is bad because there are too many abortions, while another might say it's good because it has a good economic outlook. It's such a vague question it seems not worth asking in the first place.

[Tassman]

You mean the entire country decides if we are in the right direction based on how I am doing?

How we as individuals are doing is to a large extent dependent upon how the population is doing generally in areas such as health, i.e. life expectancy at birth. Education, i.e. number of years schooling for school-age children and average years of schooling in the adult population. And income per capita, as measured by Gross National Income. These are the indicators used by the Human Development Index and they're as good as any IMO.

[Starlight]

How we as individuals are doing is to a large extent dependent upon how the population is doing generally in areas such as health, i.e. life expectancy at birth. Education, i.e. number of years schooling for school-age children and average years of schooling in the adult population. And income per capita, as measured by Gross National Income. These are the indicators used by the Human Development Index and they're as good as any IMO.

A lot of US conservatives wouldn't agree with you that education is a good thing...

[Tassman]

A lot of US conservatives wouldn't agree with you that education is a good thing...

And they practice what they preach.

[carpedm9587]

If things are currently at their worst, then they can only get better, right? And vice versa if things are currently at their best.

I also think "direction of the country" is problematic because different people focus on particular issues when they answer it as varied as abortion, culture, moral issues, economics, corruption, or who's in government. So one person might say the direction of the country is bad because there are too many abortions, while another might say it's good because it has a good economic outlook. It's such a vague question it seems not worth asking in the first place.

No argument here...

[rogue06]

I have often wondered about the utility of polls like this one. It aggregates multiple other polls to arrive at an "average of the averages." As I was poking around, I noted that the only time the poll actually shows "in the black," (which is actually a misnomer, because it shows a 50/50 split) is on June 10, 2009 when the country was evenly split as to whether we were heading "in the right direction."

If memory serves, that was 3 months after the deepest fall of the various stock markets and the nadir of the greatest recession since the Great Depression.

You just have to wonder...

Why is it that every recent recession gets called the worst since the Great Depression? Bill Clinton got elected partly because a tiny blip recession that was already over kept being described like that. The late 70s saw double digit inflation and unemployment with interest rates over 20% making it considerably worse. Usually the hit on the GDP is used to justify calling the recent recession the worst but it took a much harder hit in the late 40s recession and in the late 50s as well. The only thing about this one was the long drawn out anemic recovery.

As to polls about heading in the right/wrong direction... They are as useless as national polls for a presidential race. The biggest problem I've seen is that the public can overwhelmingly think we are heading in the wrong direction (which is translated as how the president is doing) while simultaneously thinking that the president is doing a good job trying to turn things around.

[rogue06]

A lot of US conservatives wouldn't agree with you that education is a good thing...

Considering what the left has done to education here it is obvious they don't think it is a good thing.

[Starlight]

Considering what the left has done to education here it is obvious they don't think it is a good thing.

What do you view the left as having done to education in America?

[rogue06]

What do you view the left as having done to education in America?

Turned it into a day care center

[Cerebrum123]

Turned it into a day care center

Unfair comparison to the daycare centers IMO.

[Cow Poke]

A lot of US conservatives wouldn't agree with you that education is a good thing...

I think that's a very uneducated statement.

[Cow Poke]

Turned it into a day care center

And dumbed it down to a "teaching to the test" policy.