Announcement

Collapse

Civics 101 Guidelines

Want to argue about politics? Healthcare reform? Taxes? Governments? You've come to the right place!

Try to keep it civil though. The rules still apply here.
See more
See less

Economic Suicide?

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #16
    Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
    Figures lie, and liars figure. You can make a chart that says whatever you want it to say.
    That's it? Just handwave the data away when it doesn't say what you want it to say? Vox is pretty far to the left, so I tend to check their reports pretty closely (actually, usually I avoid them completely). But Bloomberg is not, and their reporting has extremely high accuracy. Their numbers show that not only have effective wages dropped 9.3% in the first two quarters, REAL wages have dropped 1.8%. And we have a growing number of businesses that are now at risk of complete failure directly due to Trump's the trade war.

    You surely have more intellectual integrity than to simply handwave away the data?
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
      An example is only one data point. You need a collection of data to make an actual compelling argument. The fact is, most of the money companies realized from the tax cuts have gone to stock buy-backs (for publicly traded companies), and one-time bonuses (which don't commit companies to a larger payroll). Some companies have no doubt elected to do right by their employees, and it sounds like you are one of the fortunate to be in one of those companies. But that is not what the data tells us is the norm.
      An assertion by you is no data point at all.

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by Sparko View Post
        An assertion by you is no data point at all.
        Do you have any studies showing a pay rise, once inflation has been controlled for?

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
          That's it? Just handwave the data away when it doesn't say what you want it to say?
          Surely the burden is on the one presenting the chart to prove that the data has been accurately and meaningfully parsed.
          Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
          But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
          Than a fool in the eyes of God


          From "Fools Gold" by Petra

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Sparko View Post
            An assertion by you is no data point at all.
            You are right that I did not link to any substantiating information. This is a Bloomberg report on the distribution of the net income/savings due to the tax cut. It's pretty well done. You will find pretty much all of the reports online cite similar numbers.
            The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

            I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
              Surely the burden is on the one presenting the chart to prove that the data has been accurately and meaningfully parsed.
              Actually - the link was provided, and a bit of reading, and following their sources (took me about 20 minutes) showed the data to be pretty strong, MM.

              However, my experience with most avid Trump supporters is that data simply doesn't matter. If the data says something unwanted, it will be dismissed, labeled "fake news" or ignored. Unfortunately, the far left does pretty much the same thing. We increasingly live in an age where data doesn't really matter. Opinions and party fidelity matter more.
              The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

              I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                You are right that I did not link to any substantiating information. This is a Bloomberg report on the distribution of the net income/savings due to the tax cut. It's pretty well done. You will find pretty much all of the reports online cite similar numbers.
                argument by weblink is against our rules.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                  argument by weblink is against our rules.
                  This is an argument by "weblink?" Sparlo - I cited the information in my previous post. You accused me of making an assertion, so I provided the link to the source. How is that "argument by weblink?" The rules require me to repeat the information in the post that has the weblink?

                  If so: "the fact is, most of the money companies realized from the tax cuts have gone to stock buy-backs (for publicly traded companies), and one-time bonuses (which don't commit companies to a larger payroll). Some companies have no doubt elected to do right by their employees, and it sounds like you are one of the fortunate to be in one of those companies. But that is not what the data tells us is the norm."

                  These were the initial claims, which are supported by the link I provided.
                  Last edited by carpedm9587; 07-25-2018, 01:46 PM.
                  The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                  I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                    This is an argument by "weblink?" Sparlo - I cited the information in my previous post. You accused me of making an assertion, so I provided the link to the source. How is that "argument by weblink?" The rules require me to repeat the information in the post that has the weblink?
                    I am messing with you.


                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                      I am messing with you.

                      Consider me messed with...

                      I have to be honest - I can't tell the difference between the "messing with you" posts and the "truly irritated with you" posts. On this end, they appear to be identical.
                      The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                      I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                        Actually - the link was provided, and a bit of reading, and following their sources (took me about 20 minutes) showed the data to be pretty strong, MM.
                        If you hadn't noticed, I'm not contesting the underlying data, I'm contesting whether or not such a complex set of variables can be meaningfully and accurately distilled down to a single line on a graph. Seems to me you can make a chart that reflects anything you want if you massage the data just the right way.
                        Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                        But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                        Than a fool in the eyes of God


                        From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                          Consider me messed with...

                          I have to be honest - I can't tell the difference between the "messing with you" posts and the "truly irritated with you" posts. On this end, they appear to be identical.
                          Yes.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                            If you hadn't noticed, I'm not contesting the underlying data, I'm contesting whether or not such a complex set of variables can be meaningfully and accurately distilled down to a single line on a graph. Seems to me you can make a chart that reflects anything you want if you massage the data just the right way.
                            I think you're handwaving again. The data was based on basic payroll information gathered by one of the (if not the) largest payroll processing organizations in the U.S., and then adjusted for cost of living. We see similar graphs all the time and accept them easily. GDP is a simplified graph based on an amazing body of information. Even employment figures, healthcare costs, and a wide variety of social indicators are depicted this way.

                            Is it possible Q1/Q2 are a brief anomaly? Yes. Is it possible they are incorrectly being correlated to the trade war? Yes. But the graph itself is relatively straightforward and the underlying data fairly well established.
                            The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                            I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                              Gas and food prices have not changed in the last year or so. Utilities are the same. I don't see any less buying power where I live.
                              I had a poke around with the BLS regional statistics, and dug into the consumer price indexes for various regions (i.e. the analyses of inflation and which prices are and aren't inflating). And the consistent answer from all those is motor fuel has gone up 25% all across the country in the last year. Most other prices haven't changed much, but gas prices have.

                              So maybe you are blind?

                              Here's a news article from May: Average price of US gas jumps 10 cents to $3 a gallon
                              The average price of regular-grade gasoline in the U.S. jumped 10 cents a gallon over the past two weeks to $3.

                              Industry analyst Trilby Lundberg of the Lundberg Survey said Sunday that the price has spiked 41 cents over the past three months.

                              Lundberg says the increase is largely driven by higher crude oil costs and the phasing-in of summer-grade gasoline, which is used to prevent smog



                              Just be glad your fuel prices are still relatively cheap. Here the government funds the roads via a steep tax on fuel, so our fuel prices are approximately double yours.
                              Last edited by Starlight; 07-25-2018, 09:09 PM.
                              "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                              "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                              "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                                I think you're handwaving again.
                                I'm sure you do.

                                Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                                We see similar graphs all the time and accept them easily.
                                I don't. I'm always suspicious when complex sets of data that interact in a multitude of ways are turned into a simple graph.
                                Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                                But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                                Than a fool in the eyes of God


                                From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                                Comment

                                Related Threads

                                Collapse

                                Topics Statistics Last Post
                                Started by little_monkey, Yesterday, 04:19 PM
                                16 responses
                                116 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post One Bad Pig  
                                Started by whag, 03-26-2024, 04:38 PM
                                53 responses
                                317 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post Mountain Man  
                                Started by rogue06, 03-26-2024, 11:45 AM
                                25 responses
                                111 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post rogue06
                                by rogue06
                                 
                                Started by Hypatia_Alexandria, 03-26-2024, 09:21 AM
                                33 responses
                                196 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post Roy
                                by Roy
                                 
                                Started by Hypatia_Alexandria, 03-26-2024, 08:34 AM
                                84 responses
                                360 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post JimL
                                by JimL
                                 
                                Working...
                                X