Trump - Making Pigs Fly

[Sparko]

In 2016, CNN Money ran this article:

Donald Trump has a big promise for the U.S. economy: 4% growth.

No chance, say 11 economists surveyed by CNNMoney. And a paper published Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco backs them up.

"No, pigs do not fly," says Robert Brusca, senior economist at FAO Economics, a research firm. "Donald Trump is dreaming."

The Republican presidential nominee made the promise in a speech in New York in September. "I believe it's time to establish a national goal of reaching 4% economic growth," he said.

Since the Great Recession, growth has averaged 2%. Brusca and the other economists surveyed say that 4% growth is impossible, or at least highly unlikely. The reasons: Unemployment is already really low, lots of Baby Boomers are retiring, and there are far fewer manufacturing jobs today than in past decades.

Trump's team says it will get to 4% growth with tax cuts, better trade deals and more manufacturing jobs.

So what's realistic? The San Francisco Fed estimates the "new normal" for annual economic growth to be 1.5% to 1.75%. That's far lower than the period from World War II to 2004, when growth typically hovered between 3% and 4%.
https://money.cnn.com/2016/10/11/new...sts/index.html



Today:

U.S. economy accelerates to 4.1% rate in second quarter, fastest in almost 4 years

The numbers: Consumers and government spending powered the economy to a 4.1% rate of gross domestic product growth in the second quarter, the fastest pace in almost four years.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast a 4.2% increase in GDP, the official scorecard for the U.S. economy.

Growth was revised up in the first quarter to 2.2% from 2%.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...ars-2018-07-27


--

[rogue06]

This is about isn't it?

[Sparko]

This is about isn't it?

No but I will link it back to

BACON!!!

I win!

[Littlejoe]

Flying bacon?

[rogue06]

No but I will link it back to

BACON!!!

I win!

I think Trump would be orange bacon.

[One Bad Pig]

This is about isn't it?

Heck no. Trump hasn't made me fly yet; it's been a decade since that singular event has occurred.

[Starlight]

You guys seem to be confusing a single good quarter of a year with long-term high rates.

Have a look at the last 10 years of GDP quarterly growth:



A single good quarter like this is absolutely nothing unusual.

If it stays above 4% for a full year that would be unusual. And if it stays above 4% for a whole 2 years, then break out the poms poms and the flying pigs.

[JimL]

In 2016, CNN Money ran this article:

Donald Trump has a big promise for the U.S. economy: 4% growth.

No chance, say 11 economists surveyed by CNNMoney. And a paper published Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco backs them up.

"No, pigs do not fly," says Robert Brusca, senior economist at FAO Economics, a research firm. "Donald Trump is dreaming."

The Republican presidential nominee made the promise in a speech in New York in September. "I believe it's time to establish a national goal of reaching 4% economic growth," he said.

Since the Great Recession, growth has averaged 2%. Brusca and the other economists surveyed say that 4% growth is impossible, or at least highly unlikely. The reasons: Unemployment is already really low, lots of Baby Boomers are retiring, and there are far fewer manufacturing jobs today than in past decades.

Trump's team says it will get to 4% growth with tax cuts, better trade deals and more manufacturing jobs.

So what's realistic? The San Francisco Fed estimates the "new normal" for annual economic growth to be 1.5% to 1.75%. That's far lower than the period from World War II to 2004, when growth typically hovered between 3% and 4%.
https://money.cnn.com/2016/10/11/new...sts/index.html



Today:

U.S. economy accelerates to 4.1% rate in second quarter, fastest in almost 4 years

The numbers: Consumers and government spending powered the economy to a 4.1% rate of gross domestic product growth in the second quarter, the fastest pace in almost four years.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast a 4.2% increase in GDP, the official scorecard for the U.S. economy.

Growth was revised up in the first quarter to 2.2% from 2%.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...ars-2018-07-27


--

Means absolutely nothing. Obama had hit higher economic growth rates than Trumps 4.1% five times during his term in office 4.6%, 4.7%, 4.3%, 4.8%, 4.9%. But remember, when it comes to Trump "don't believe what you see or hear because what you see and hear is not whats happening." Besides that, wage growth is still flat, all the money is going to the top. Big surprise!

[rogue06]

You guys seem to be confusing a single good quarter of a year with long-term high rates.

You must be hoping that nobody notices that every quarter under Trump has had a healthy rate in the GDP as opposed to the sickly ones we saw under eight years of Obama (first Administration to never top 3% in annual GDP with an average annual under 2%)

[JimL]

You must be hoping that nobody notices that every quarter under Trump has had a healthy rate in the GDP as opposed to the sickly ones we saw under eight years of Obama (first Administration to never top 3% in annual GDP with an average annual under 2%)

You seem to forget that Obama inherited the worst recession since the great depression and, as usual, the republican, Trump, inherited Obama's correction of that republican administrations mess. Btw my figures above were from memory, and not exactly correct, Obama actually hit 5.1% growth one quarter. Big deal, right?

[seer]

You must be hoping that nobody notices that every quarter under Trump has had a healthy rate in the GDP as opposed to the sickly ones we saw under eight years of Obama (first Administration to never top 3% in annual GDP with an average annual under 2%)

To be honest Obama was handed a mess, not that he did much with pro-business policies to get us out.

[Mountain Man]

You must be hoping that nobody notices that every quarter under Trump has had a healthy rate in the GDP as opposed to the sickly ones we saw under eight years of Obama (first Administration to never top 3% in annual GDP with an average annual under 2%)

And Obama tried desperately to convince us that a weak economy and high unemployment was "the new normal".

[Leonhard]

And Obama tried desperately to convince us that a weak economy and high unemployment was "the new normal".

I only ever saw that term being used in one interview in 2010, where he said he was worried of a danger that the economy could enter a state, where slow job growth was the new normal. Beyond that I only saw the phrase as it was quoted by conservatives.

Do you have examples other than that one interview?

[rogue06]

You seem to forget that Obama inherited the worst recession since the great depression...

That's the same laugh line the MSM conned America with when Bill Clinton ran against Bush the Elder. We were in the worst recession since the Great Depression smiley hair-fire.gif


That one was barely a blip and most people didn't even know it happened until it was over and the press started playing it up. In contrast this last one was indeed bad, and Obama did nothing to help but rather prolonged it (he kept telling America that the world economy has changed and it was the new normal). And it pales in comparison to the one back in the late 70s to early 80s where we saw not only double digit unemployment and inflation but interest rates over 20%. And IIRC there were a couple in the mid-late 40s and 50s that were worse as well.

[rogue06]

To be honest Obama was handed a mess, not that he did much with pro-business policies to get us out.

True, but typically the economy starts roaring back to life after two years whereas under Obama it sputtered along for eight. He was fond of saying why would you want to give control back to the folks who drove the car into the ditch in the first place (while both sides were responsible) while he was busy pouring sugar in the gas tank and slashing the tires trying to make sure we stayed there.