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Desertification Solution

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  • Desertification Solution



    This is a long video but its conclusions help explain something I had thought very odd. There was a study of ice cores that showed a marked increase in the methane levels right at the beginning of the Roman Empire. Those levels fell very (relatively, I suppose) quickly - neither of which made a lot of sense to me. Granted an empire as it grows prosperous - and people start living longer/becoming more urban - needs a higher livestock production, which presumably accounts in part for the increase - but why would the levels then fall? Evidently from the same livestock as the land improves.

    I'm presenting this mostly for information. It does strike me that here, if correct, we see a dramatic overturn of established ecological science - something of a warning for the headlong rush into 'consensus'. I realize that's controversial but the idea that livestock can improve land isn't that new. Goat herds are used now commercially for exactly that purpose - and we're beginning to understand something of the incredible complexity of how soil actually works, which is aided by, rather than destroyed by, livestock.

    Of course, over grazing is a thing - but that's always poor management, whether in ignorance, or as in Africa, artificially enforced by changing political realities. Herders won't historically deliberately over graze - it's simply bad for their animals and the land and they know - or knew - it.

    I think, too, it's a lesson in learning from both history and the people. The guy who has never even heard of a university is still an expert in his own field - often far more so than we are willing to give credit.
    "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

    "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

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  • #2
    Hmm, there's a big difference between historical methods of livestock grazing (a few goats on the land) versus modern methods (intensive fertilizer use, intensive irrigation, very high animal counts).

    The former might improve the land, but there's plenty of evidence that the latter does not (build up of heavy metals from fertilizers, nitrates, phosphates, etc).
    "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
    "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
    "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

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    • #3
      Watched the whole video and enjoyed it. Particularly because that guy is a personal friend of one of my personal friends...

      hesser.jpg

      My wife actually processed some of Hesser's publications.
      The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

      Comment


      • #4
        Digging a bit into what scientists think of this guy's ideas, it seems like this guy is basically a fraud. Repeated studies have consistently disproved his hypothesis. He admitted that "15 years of [trying to use my method gave] frustrating and erratic results." But this doesn't seem to have led him to admit that his hypothesis is wrong, and instead he seems to hold some sort of unfalsifiable semi-religious belief in "holistic management" which he thinks should apply to people's own lives just as much as to agriculture.

        And the way he refuses to divulge specifics isn't encouraging:
        "Holistic" is an all-encompassing term for Savory, as much a worldview as an agricultural system. "This isn't just about grazing," he said. "You can practice holistic management of your household, your life. It's about looking at the whole complexity of life." I told him I wanted to hear what it means for grazing practices....

        I asked again: What accounts for the difference? "The management," Savory replied. But what specifically about that management? What does that consist of? "We can explain that in a moment, but let's not digress." He did not digress. He showed me more pictures.

        I kept asking for details. I wanted to know how holistic management works on the ground. I asked for statistical measurements of recovery on land that had been treated with his method. I wanted to know the metrics of the claimed increases in biodiversity and vegetation density; the number of grazers; the duration of the grazing; the time frame of recovery. Did these explosions of vegetal growth occur overnight or over decades? I wanted specifics. He looked at me with glinting eyes. "There can be no discussion of specifics," he said. "If I gave you the specifics, it would start an argument."

        Basically, the scientific community appears to have lost all interest in his theory because all the studies have pretty consistently shown the exact opposite of what he says, and the active researchers in the field aren't interested in a long-discredited and thoroughly-disproven view.

        It was a great TED talk. I guess the lesson is that snake oil salesmen make the best marketers. They have to be good at the sales pitch when the product itself has no value.
        "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
        "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
        "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Starlight View Post
          Hmm, there's a big difference between historical methods of livestock grazing (a few goats on the land) versus modern methods (intensive fertilizer use, intensive irrigation, very high animal counts).

          The former might improve the land, but there's plenty of evidence that the latter does not (build up of heavy metals from fertilizers, nitrates, phosphates, etc).
          That wasn't what was proposed. You didn't watch it at all, did you?
          "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

          "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

          My Personal Blog

          My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

          Quill Sword

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Starlight View Post
            Digging a bit into what scientists think of this guy's ideas, it seems like this guy is basically a fraud. Repeated studies have consistently disproved his hypothesis. He admitted that "15 years of [trying to use my method gave] frustrating and erratic results." But this doesn't seem to have led him to admit that his hypothesis is wrong, and instead he seems to hold some sort of unfalsifiable semi-religious belief in "holistic management" which he thinks should apply to people's own lives just as much as to agriculture.

            And the way he refuses to divulge specifics isn't encouraging:
            "Holistic" is an all-encompassing term for Savory, as much a worldview as an agricultural system. "This isn't just about grazing," he said. "You can practice holistic management of your household, your life. It's about looking at the whole complexity of life." I told him I wanted to hear what it means for grazing practices....

            I asked again: What accounts for the difference? "The management," Savory replied. But what specifically about that management? What does that consist of? "We can explain that in a moment, but let's not digress." He did not digress. He showed me more pictures.

            I kept asking for details. I wanted to know how holistic management works on the ground. I asked for statistical measurements of recovery on land that had been treated with his method. I wanted to know the metrics of the claimed increases in biodiversity and vegetation density; the number of grazers; the duration of the grazing; the time frame of recovery. Did these explosions of vegetal growth occur overnight or over decades? I wanted specifics. He looked at me with glinting eyes. "There can be no discussion of specifics," he said. "If I gave you the specifics, it would start an argument."

            Basically, the scientific community appears to have lost all interest in his theory because all the studies have pretty consistently shown the exact opposite of what he says, and the active researchers in the field aren't interested in a long-discredited and thoroughly-disproven view.

            It was a great TED talk. I guess the lesson is that snake oil salesmen make the best marketers. They have to be good at the sales pitch when the product itself has no value.
            The Sierra Club?


            What has no value is your 'research'...
            "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

            "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

            My Personal Blog

            My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

            Quill Sword

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
              The Sierra Club?


              What has no value is your 'research'...
              Don't be a moron, I consulted multiple sources. If you happen to not like one of them, I couldn't care less. If you also want to go look into the various research that has been done, by all means do so. But as far as I can find, this guy has no credibility and his theories have been completely debunked.
              "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
              "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
              "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

              Comment


              • #8
                At present I do not have access to accurate records, but volcanic eruptions can cause peaks in methane that subside.
                Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                go with the flow the river knows . . .

                Frank

                I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                  At present I do not have access to accurate records, but volcanic eruptions can cause peaks in methane that subside.
                  Do you pronounce it "mee-thane"?
                  The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    There's a detailed criticism, with citations, of this guy here:
                    https://www.theguardian.com/environm...arming-miracle

                    I don't know enough about most of the claims to evaluate it, but there is an exception: there is no possible way that expanding grasslands alone could take us back to preindustrial CO2 levels on its own. There simply isn't enough land on Earth that could support grasslands for that to work. And if someone's sloppy enough to hype an impossibility, my experience has been that that's not the only thing they're sloppy about.
                    "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by TheLurch View Post
                      There's a detailed criticism...
                      I was just thinking yesterday --- Where has the LURCH been?!?!?!?!

                      Great to see you!
                      The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                        I was just thinking yesterday --- Where has the LURCH been?!?!?!?!
                        Someone musta rang.



                        I'm always still in trouble again

                        "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                        "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                          Someone musta rang.


                          You really are a scree-um.
                          The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                            Do you pronounce it "mee-thane"?
                            No, for those competent in the English language it is ˈ/meTHˌān/

                            Apparently you are an exception.
                            Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                            Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                            But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                            go with the flow the river knows . . .

                            Frank

                            I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                              Don't be a moron, I consulted multiple sources. If you happen to not like one of them, I couldn't care less. If you also want to go look into the various research that has been done, by all means do so. But as far as I can find, this guy has no credibility and his theories have been completely debunked.
                              You listed ONE source, period. A biased one.

                              Ether behave yourself or leave my thread - I didn't call you names.
                              "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                              "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                              My Personal Blog

                              My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                              Quill Sword

                              Comment

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