Blue Waves and Red Waves

[Cow Poke]

I just stumbled on this, and it explains a bit of what I'm seeing in the numbers. Apparently, the Dems have never really lost any significant ground over the months. What has been happening is that some of the "toss-ups" are solidifying, and the ones for the Reps seem to be solidifying at a faster rate. If you look at the statistics below, the Dems have hovered in a pickup range between +4 and +51. Over the past few weeks that rage has narrowed. Now their top predicted gain is +44. The bottom is now +11. With 193 seats currently, Dems need a pickup of 25 seats to take the house. That's just below the midline of the current +11 and +41 window (midline is +26).

I don't have have time to dig through the 30 current toss-ups to see how many have the Dem slightly ahead and how many have the Rep slightly ahead, and (for some reason) the house is the only segment that doesn't have a "no-toss-ups" map that depicts that. But I guess we'll know in 21 days. Right now, best guess is it looks "pretty good" for the Dems in the house - but unlikely for the Dems in the Senate.

By now you have probably discerned that I love to play with numbers...

Thanks

[Sparko]

He wasn't an elected official. He was a Democratic Party functionary at the county level.

I know. I meant switches sides as in will vote Republican in the election rather than be part of the "blue wave"

[Cow Poke]

It will be interesting to see polls in Texas following last night's debate between Cruz and Beto.

Beto abandoned his "nice guy populist" image and came out on the attack, looking like the "typical politician" he so often criticizes.

SAN ANTONIO (AP) — Democrat Beto O'Rourke abandoned his usual message of unity and optimism and laid into Ted Cruz, hoping to reverse polls that show him fading against the Republican incumbent during the second debate of a Texas Senate race that has become one of the nation's most closely watched.

During the opening moments of the debate Tuesday night , Cruz criticized O'Rourke for past votes supporting a never-enacted oil production tax that might have hit oil-rich Texas hard. O'Rourke responded by evoking a moniker President Donald Trump bestowed on the senator when the pair were bitter rivals during the 2016 Republican presidential primary, saying, "Senator Cruz is not going to be honest with you. He's going to make up positions and votes that I've never held."

"It's why the president called him Lyin' Ted," O'Rourke said "and it's why the nickname stuck, because it's true."

A former Ivy League debate champion, Cruz shot back, "It's clear Congressman O'Rourke's pollsters have told him to come out on the attack."

Democrats have long dreamed about a growing Hispanic population helping to flip Texas from red to blue and shaking up the electoral map. But polls that once showed O'Rourke within striking distance of a monumental upset now suggest Cruz may be edging further ahead. No Democrat has won any of Texas' nearly 30 statewide offices since 1994, the country's longest political losing streak.

source

[Sparko]

What the Dems expected:




What they got:

[Leonhard]

This deserves to be reposted.

[Sparko]

Overall I am pleased with the election. Both sides "won" - The republicans gained a stronger hold over the Senate, and the democrats won control of the house.

Which probably means a stalemate as far as new legislation goes for the next two years. But then it has been pretty much a stalemate so far anyway with the republicans refusing to act on things like healthcare.

But it does mean that there is a chance for even more conservative judges to be appointed to SCOTUS in the next two years. If Ginsburg dies or retires.

[Mountain Man]

If Ginsburg dies or retires.

I have no doubt that her retirement plans were immediately changed the moment Hillary lost, because she's never going to retire as long as Trump is in office. At this point, she seems to be taking the concept of a life-time appointment in its most literal sense.

[Sparko]

I have no doubt that her retirement plans were immediately changed the moment Hillary lost, because she's never going to retire as long as Trump is in office. At this point, she seems to be taking the concept of a life-time appointment in its most literal sense.

I think she died a long time ago and the democrats replaced her with an animatronic robot.

[Cow Poke]

I'm just glad I made it to the office this morning without hearing a single political ad on the radio!

[carpedm9587]

I have to admit that I'm not sure what all the crowing is about. The election fell in pretty close to in-line with predictions. Dems had a significant chance of taking the house. RCP gave the a window of 8-44 seat pick-up with a median of 26. 538 gave the a 7/8 chance of taking the house, and they did. RCP gave Reps a two seat pickup in the house using their no-toss-ups map, and 538 gave Reps a 5/6 chance of retaining the Senate. It looks like Reps will pick up 2 or 3 seats. The Senate was always a long shot because Dems were defending 25 seats and Reps defending 8. The governor "no toss-ups" split was 24/26. Right now it is 21/25 with 4 races left to resolve.

All in all - while a massive blue wave would have been nice, most of the polls were pretty solid, and the outcomes pretty much in line with predictions. The house so-called "House Popular Vote" was in line with 2010 (0.2% points lower) and above 2014. The smaller pick-up is largely a function of the extreme gerrymandering created by Operation Red Map. State elections were also a solid gain. Dems picked up 6 trifectas taking them to 14 states (I don't think trifectas in a state are good, but at least they are closer to balanced nationally). Reps lost 4 to take them to 22, so they still dominate states. Hopefully that will continue to shift in 2020 until it comes to more of a place of balance. Two split states became trifectas (for Dems) and one remains uncalled (Georgia).

All-in-all, the beginning of a shift back to the center was pretty clear. Now the energy shifts to 2020, looking to continue to balance the states, and get Trump out of the executive office. I'd prefer NOT to have both the legislature and executive in the hands of one party, so my ideal 2020 would be Democrats take the Executive and Senate (to begin trying to undo the imbalance of the judiciary), and Reps retake the house (to provide for some degree of balance ad the need for working together).

And I think we the people should start looking for candidates who are willing to work across the aisle towards solutions, and get those who are unwilling to do so out.

[Cow Poke]

I have to admit that I'm not sure what all the crowing is about.....

To what "crowing" are you referring?

[carpedm9587]

I'm just glad I made it to the office this morning without hearing a single political ad on the radio!

Fortunately - I don't watch regular TV or listen to the radio - so I had minimal exposure... podcasts, baby, and streaming video. Dey da bomb!

[Mountain Man]

To what "crowing" are you referring?

Yeah, haven't seen a lot of crowing. Most of the MSM pundits seem to be sobered by the fact that their anticipated "blue wave" petered out into a ripple on the shore.

[Mountain Man]

I think we the people should start looking for candidates who are willing to work across the aisle towards solutions, and get those who are unwilling to do so out.

I completely agree. That would be the next best thing to a viable third (and forth, and fifth) party.

[Cow Poke]

Yeah, haven't seen a lot of crowing. Most of the MSM pundits seem to be sobered by the fact that their anticipated "blue wave" petered out into a ripple on the shore.

Yeah, I haven't seen any crowing from either side - the Dems seem to be disappointed that the Repubs actually GAINED seats in the Senate, and the Repubs seem somewhat glum about the number of seats lost in the House -- though, truth be told, the number of seats lost is smaller than the losses under Obama or Clinton.

Disaster averted: Trump just third president in 100 years to gain Senate seats in midterm election while losing House seats

To me, this is really nothing about which to crow.

lost seats.jpg