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Blue Waves and Red Waves

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Sparko View Post
    If Bernie Sanders and Ronald Reagan were running against each other, who would you vote for?
    Given that Reagan has been dead for nearly a decade and a half...

    I'm always still in trouble again

    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
    "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
    "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Sparko View Post
      If Bernie Sanders and Ronald Reagan were running against each other, who would you vote for?
      Roosevelt for another twelve years.

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by Sparko View Post
        If Bernie Sanders and Ronald Reagan were running against each other, who would you vote for?
        Bernie, since Fidel Castro is indisposed.

        Who wants to join me on the streets in support of Bernie to protest our right to free speech?

        Is this friday okay?

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
          Given that Reagan has been dead for nearly a decade and a half...
          Obviously another vote for Reagan.
          Last edited by mikewhitney; 08-08-2018, 01:41 PM.

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
            Given that Reagan has been dead for nearly a decade and a half...
            The real problem is that Bernie Sanders would get the votes of dead people.

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
              Given that Reagan has been dead for nearly a decade and a half...
              Is the voting happening in Chicago?
              The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                If Bernie Sanders and Ronald Reagan were running against each other, who would you vote for?
                Wow - awesome question. That would be a really tough call, but if you are asking the question in the current political climate - Reagan.
                The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                  Wait... you said CENTRIST*, not pinko commie extremist liberal wacko nutso crazy**!

                  *or something of that nature
                  **not intended to represent any actual persons living, dead or otherwise, or posting on Tweb
                  I am revoking your posting privileges...
                  The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                  I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                    I am revoking your posting privileges...
                    I.... I......


                    What the schwaunce!!!! I can't POST!!!!
                    The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                      That is definitely one way to look at it but considering the virulent hatred for Trump on the left if they were still seeing indications of a blue wave they could not contain themselves and would be joyfully trumpeting it far and wide. The fact that they aren't, IMHBAO, is telling.

                      Of course, it is still a long way until November.
                      Not so long anymore.

                      I think we've known for a while that the Senate is a long shot. But not the house. And your reading of the "quiet" is one possible interpretation. Another is that we know arrogant over-confidence was a factor in 2016, so the silence may simply be a strategic decision. If the powers that be are too vocal about "the blue wave," the result may well be that voters stay home, figuring it's in the bag. That happened a LOT in 2016.

                      But we shall see. I track RealClearPolitics and 538, and the trend lines have been interesting. The generic ballot has been tightening all year, up until the end of May. Then it began to widen again with Democrats favored. More importantly, the house map continually shifts to the left. At one point there were 212 seats "leaning, likely, or solidly" red and 188 seats "leaning, likely, or solidly" blue with 35 seats in play (toss up). As the primaries have unfolded that has steadily shifted. As of now, there are now 196 seats "leaning, likely, or solidly" red (so 16 seats have become "in play" or worse), 199 seats "leaning, likely, or solidly" blue (11 seat improvement), and 40 seats that are in play (up by 5).

                      Yes, Republicans have taken 8 of the 9 special elections (and many are crowing about it), but they are ignoring the fact that all of these seats were in solidly red districts, and almost all of the races showed a 10-20 point shift to the left. When the district is pro-Republican by more than 20 points, that is not enough of a shift to take the district, so Republicans have won them. However, there are over 60 districts held by Republican with less than a 10 point margin. If the trend continues, and they also shift 10-20 points to the left, Democrats could take every single one of them. The greatest wave elections (historically) saw 70 seats change hands. I doubt Dems will achieve that because the map is too badly gerrymandered. But they don't need to. They just need to secure the 199 seats that are "leaning, likely, or solidly" blue, and 19 of the 40 seats "in play."

                      In general, I like their chances. I also hope they do. Having all three branches of government in the hands of one party is not good for our democracy.
                      The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                      I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                        Not so long anymore.

                        I think we've known for a while that the Senate is a long shot. But not the house. And your reading of the "quiet" is one possible interpretation. Another is that we know arrogant over-confidence was a factor in 2016, so the silence may simply be a strategic decision. If the powers that be are too vocal about "the blue wave," the result may well be that voters stay home, figuring it's in the bag. That happened a LOT in 2016.

                        But we shall see. I track RealClearPolitics and 538, and the trend lines have been interesting. The generic ballot has been tightening all year, up until the end of May. Then it began to widen again with Democrats favored. More importantly, the house map continually shifts to the left. At one point there were 212 seats "leaning, likely, or solidly" red and 188 seats "leaning, likely, or solidly" blue with 35 seats in play (toss up). As the primaries have unfolded that has steadily shifted. As of now, there are now 196 seats "leaning, likely, or solidly" red (so 16 seats have become "in play" or worse), 199 seats "leaning, likely, or solidly" blue (11 seat improvement), and 40 seats that are in play (up by 5).

                        Yes, Republicans have taken 8 of the 9 special elections (and many are crowing about it), but they are ignoring the fact that all of these seats were in solidly red districts, and almost all of the races showed a 10-20 point shift to the left. When the district is pro-Republican by more than 20 points, that is not enough of a shift to take the district, so Republicans have won them. However, there are over 60 districts held by Republican with less than a 10 point margin. If the trend continues, and they also shift 10-20 points to the left, Democrats could take every single one of them. The greatest wave elections (historically) saw 70 seats change hands. I doubt Dems will achieve that because the map is too badly gerrymandered. But they don't need to. They just need to secure the 199 seats that are "leaning, likely, or solidly" blue, and 19 of the 40 seats "in play."

                        In general, I like their chances. I also hope they do. Having all three branches of government in the hands of one party is not good for our democracy.
                        As much as I hate to admit it, Trump deserves to lose the house as much as Obama did - but I doubt Trump will do any better at grasping the message of the "drubbing" than Obama did.

                        Still, too early to tell.
                        The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                          Given that Reagan has been dead for nearly a decade and a half...
                          So has Bernie.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                            Wow - awesome question. That would be a really tough call, but if you are asking the question in the current political climate - Reagan.
                            Good answer, but how would it be a tough call? Reagan was conservative but not excessively so. A bit right of center. But Sanders is WAAAAAAYY off to the left. Almost in Starlight country. If you are a centrist the call would be easily Reagan, I would think.

                            Sanders..........................................C enter...........Reagan..........

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                              Good answer, but how would it be a tough call?
                              Because my answer would differ in a different political climate. I actually align with more of Sander's positions than Reagan's.

                              Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                              Reagan was conservative but not excessively so. A bit right of center. But Sanders is WAAAAAAYY off to the left. Almost in Starlight country. If you are a centrist the call would be easily Reagan, I would think.

                              Sanders..........................................C enter...........Reagan..........
                              I am a centrist "on average." Fiscally, I lean right. Socially, I lean VERY strongly left.
                              The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                              I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                                Because my answer would differ in a different political climate. I actually align with more of Sander's positions than Reagan's.

                                I am a centrist "on average." Fiscally, I lean right. Socially, I lean VERY strongly left.
                                Do you? Lean VERY strongly socially left I mean? By the standards in here maybe, but I wouldn't consider you particularly left wing generally.

                                Probably an American thing- left wing & liberal tend to mean different things over there it appears.

                                Comment

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