Blue Waves and Red Waves

[EvoUK]

Also if you lean socially left, I'm sure they'll consider you left wing full stop. That you consider yourself centrist due to your fiscal leanings will be neither here nor there. If anything it'll make you a closet liberal - I think I've seen MM say words to that effect previously.

[Terraceth]

So I was looking at a chart in regards to midterms. Starting with 1902, there have been 29 midterm elections. In all but 4 of those, the President's party lost seats in the House of Representatives (Senate was better, with 7 times gaining seats, and 2 times being zero sum). It seems fairly consistent that the tide turns against the party the President is of.

[carpedm9587]

Do you? Lean VERY strongly socially left I mean? By the standards in here maybe, but I wouldn't consider you particularly left wing generally.

Probably an American thing- left wing & liberal tend to mean different things over there it appears.

Possibly. Perspective can change.

[carpedm9587]

Also if you lean socially left, I'm sure they'll consider you left wing full stop. That you consider yourself centrist due to your fiscal leanings will be neither here nor there. If anything it'll make you a closet liberal - I think I've seen MM say words to that effect previously.

Oh I've been called many things here and elsewhere. Such is life. What people say and think doesn't change who I am.

[Sparko]

Because my answer would differ in a different political climate. I actually align with more of Sander's positions than Reagan's.



I am a centrist "on average." Fiscally, I lean right. Socially, I lean VERY strongly left.

So not a centrist at all then.

[Cow Poke]

Oh I've been called many things here and elsewhere. Such is life. What people say and think doesn't change who I am.

And what you say you are isn't necessarily who you am either!

[carpedm9587]

So not a centrist at all then.

On average - I end up coming up slightly left of center.

[carpedm9587]

And what you say you are isn't necessarily who you am either!

Well, I tend to subscribe to the view that, if a man tells me I am not accurately reflecting their views, perspectives, or ideas - I'm going to listen. After all - it is THEIR views, perspectives, and ideas. Telling other people what they think seems, to me, to be a pointless exercise. I realize it is a common practice around here.

[Cow Poke]

Well, I tend to subscribe to the view that, if a man tells me I am not accurately reflecting their views, perspectives, or ideas - I'm going to listen. After all - it is THEIR views, perspectives, and ideas. Telling other people what they think seems, to me, to be a pointless exercise. I realize it is a common practice around here.

That's not really what you think at all.

[Bill the Cat]

Special Election turnout has been pretty low - barely 20% of those who voted in almost every precinct. The Dems turned out in higher percentages of total votes from the Pres election for each county than the Trump voters. Normal election days are far different and can't be realistically used to gauge any sort of "shift". 200K votes total in a district of almost 700K

[Bill the Cat]

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[carpedm9587]

That's not really what you think at all.

OK - that was funny...

[carpedm9587]

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OK - I love statistics and data. I'm just not sure if this has a point...?

[Bill the Cat]

OK - I love statistics and data. I'm just not sure if this has a point...?

None of the districts swung any significant amount from the POTUS from a percentage standpoint. So to call this a shift is not born out by the actual data.

[carpedm9587]

None of the districts swung any significant amount from the POTUS from a percentage standpoint. So to call this a shift is not born out by the actual data.

So something is amiss. In 2016, according to this, Trump received 53% of the vote in the Ohio 12th district, and Clinton received 42%, a spread of 11%. As of tonight, the spread in the special election is 0.9%. That's a shift of 10 percentage points to the left, which is consistent with most of the other special elections.

So I'm not sure where your data comes from, or why it appears to be so off. I'll see if I can figure it out.