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170 Registered Voters in Ohio’s 12th District Listed as Over 116 Years Old

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  • #61
    Originally posted by Sparko View Post
    You would only NEED 2.
    How about 35,750?

    I'm always still in trouble again

    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
    "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
    "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

    Comment


    • #62
      Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
      How about 35,750?
      You only need 2 if they are the right 2. Any more is just being wasteful.

      Comment


      • #63
        Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
        Do you recall the number of people needed for two to have the same first and last name and same birthday (that's not just day and month but also year) and the same (IIRC) last four numbers of their Social Security number?
        Not to mention middle initials. My Dad had 3 - NMI.
        The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

        Comment


        • #64
          Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
          The same, including the year?
          Good point. No, that was for month/day only. For a 70 year window, you get to a better than 50% chance at 188 people. So all you need is a group of 188 people with the same name nationwide, and you have a 50/50 chance of false positives for each name! If you go to the last four digits of the social security number, the 50/50 point is 223 people (there are 10,000 possible combination of this number). On a whim, I did a search on my name on a couple of people search sites, and came up with between 100 and 250 names (in the U.S.), depending on which site I used. My name is not a very common one because my mother left the "a" out of "Michel." When you look at more common names, the numbers go through the roof. I also took a look at my phone book, and there are 3 people with my name listed - for an area with about 100K people. If that ratio were to hold, it suggests there are some 10,000 people in the U.S. with my name. Even if each area of that size had 1/10th the density, it's still 1,000 people.

          Unless the comparisons are made with a completely unique identifier (e.g., the entire social security number), and I have never found a study that uses that basis, the studies are rife with error.

          Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
          When I formed our college ministry team years ago, I asked three other couples, besides my wife and myself, to be the steering committee. When I suggested a particular evening for a meeting, one of the guys said, "I can't - that's my birthday and the kids are having a party for me".

          I said, "well, it's my birthday too, but...." and the third man jumped in and said - "wait, you guys are putting me on, right?"

          He said it was HIS birthday, and we had to pull out drivers licenses to prove that, in fact, all three of us had the same birthday - not to the year, but the same month and day. The fourth couple was grinning real big, and I said, "NO!!!!!" He grinned and said, "you're not going to believe this", and he nodded to his wife who was smiling really big, drivers license in hand -- HER birthday was the same as ours.

          Anyway - I think your little story is true of "birthday", not birth date, including year, which is the delimiter.
          I actually make money on this when I teach a math class. Anytime the class has more than 25 people in it, I bet the class $5 for each person who wants in on the bet. At 26 people, the odds are almost 60/40. The odds go to 70/30 at 30 people, and 80/20 at 34 people. At 50 people, it's 97/3. So it's a pretty decent bet. People look around the room and think, "26 people, 365 days, no way!" It's a great object lesson in probabilities.
          The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

          I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

          Comment


          • #65
            Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
            Do you recall the number of people needed for two to have the same first and last name and same birthday (that's not just day and month but also year) and the same (IIRC) last four numbers of their Social Security number?
            That's not how you would do the calculation. The simpler way is to take the permutations of number of days coupled with the last four digits of the soc (which is usually what gets shared/used). Do that probability and determine what the odds are of a "match" for people with that name. Then determine the sample size of like names. For each name in the U.S., the probability of a match is the calculated value. Essentially, for each name, including month/day/year over a 70-year window, coupled with the last four of the soc., the probability of a false positive exceeds 50% if there are more than 223 people in the U.S. with that name. The odds reach 60/40 at 256 people, 70/30 at 293 people, 80/20 at 339 people, and 90/10 at 405 people. At 1000 people, the odds are 99.999308% that there will be at least one false positive.

            This is the error most of the studies make, because an enormous number of people don't understand the probabilities. To weed out these false positives, you need to use the entire soc (which is unique). Unfortunately, that number is typically not part of the shared information, for security reasons.
            The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

            I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

            Comment


            • #66
              Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
              Because it declares what you want to hear? Is that what makes it correct? Because it certainly wasn't because of corroborating evidence and facts provided since there were none. And the source you picked has a reputation that makes Breitbart look like the font of all that is true and honest.
              'Media Matters for America' is a progressive outlet certainly, but reputable nonetheless. And it rightly notes in this instance that Breitbart’s voter fraud conspiracy theories are largely based on two conspiratorial narratives of dubious substance. But we are used to this from Breitbart aren’t we.
              “He felt that his whole life was a kind of dream and he sometimes wondered whose it was and whether they were enjoying it.” - Douglas Adams.

              Comment


              • #67
                Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                Do you recall the number of people needed for two to have the same first and last name and same birthday (that's not just day and month but also year) and the same (IIRC) last four numbers of their Social Security number?
                No. I have never calculated that.
                Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

                MM: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
                MM on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

                seer: I believe that so called 'compassion' [for starving Palestinian kids] maybe a cover for anti Semitism, ...

                Comment


                • #68
                  Originally posted by JimL View Post
                  I wonder what the chances are that you're an idiot and that Breitbarts story is full of crap?
                  Of course it's fake news. It's coming from BrainFart and being posted here by MoronMan.

                  Ohio's Secretary Of State Says... Some older Ohioans were given placeholder birthdates on their voter registrations:

                  Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted has issued a detailed statement in the wake of a deeply misleading story published by Breitbart that suggested voter fraud had occurred in the state due to the fact that some registered voters in Ohio were listed as being "over 116 years old."...

                  The misinformation started with a Breitbart report, written by Eric Eggers of the Government Accountability Institute, a conservative research organization. It cited the fact that 170 registered voters had birthdates that would make them more than 116 years old as evidence that "the Left" is trying to "create conditions favorable for voter fraud in Ohio."...

                  But according to Ohio officials, there's nothing fraudulent about the 170 registered voters with very old birth years. The reason is that, prior to the passage of a new law in 1974, Ohioans did not have to provide a date of birth when registering to vote.

                  As a result, local officials often used placeholder dates such as Jan. 1, 1900,
                  or Jan. 1, 1800, when registering voters. Some older voters in Ohio, therefore, are still on the voter rolls with those placeholder birthdates.

                  "These individuals met the requirements at the time to become registered voters and remain legally qualified electors today," the Ohio secretary of state's office said Monday.

                  Ohio already has what's considered to be the most aggressive approach to purging voter rolls...

                  As usual BrainFart's idiocy is a combination of their own incompetence at researching stories combined with projection and fantasies that claim the left engages in the kinds of awful behavior that those on the right do.

                  "Oh no, some people have placeholder birthdays of Jan 1 1900 on the electoral roll! It must be a Democratic conspiracy!"
                  "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                  "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                  "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                    I DO know that the ones I HAVE tracked down were flawed studies. They were basing things on names, and birth dates, ignoring the vast incidence of duplicate names with duplicate birth dates. Many people do not grasp the probabilities of these things. As soon as you have a group that is 22 people or larger, the probability of a duplicate birthday in the group exceeds 50%.
                    The Republican multi-state voter purges generally seem carefully designed by them to try and take advantage of the fact that minority groups have a smaller range of names than white people. So your chances of having two people both named Santiago Garcia in two states with the same birthday are incredibly high and you can strike both off your voter rolls as "duplicates" by pretending they are the same person and that you are just cleaning up your voter roll. Works a treat and is increasingly needed, along with gerrymandering and voter ID scams to ensure Republicans win elections. They've become the party of electoral fraud.
                    "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                    "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                    "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Originally posted by Dimbulb View Post
                      Of course it's fake news. It's coming from BrainFart and being posted here by MoronMan.

                      Ohio's Secretary Of State Says... Some older Ohioans were given placeholder birthdates on their voter registrations:

                      Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted has issued a detailed statement in the wake of a deeply misleading story published by Breitbart that suggested voter fraud had occurred in the state due to the fact that some registered voters in Ohio were listed as being "over 116 years old."...

                      The misinformation started with a Breitbart report, written by Eric Eggers of the Government Accountability Institute, a conservative research organization. It cited the fact that 170 registered voters had birthdates that would make them more than 116 years old as evidence that "the Left" is trying to "create conditions favorable for voter fraud in Ohio."...

                      But according to Ohio officials, there's nothing fraudulent about the 170 registered voters with very old birth years. The reason is that, prior to the passage of a new law in 1974, Ohioans did not have to provide a date of birth when registering to vote.

                      As a result, local officials often used placeholder dates such as Jan. 1, 1900,
                      or Jan. 1, 1800, when registering voters. Some older voters in Ohio, therefore, are still on the voter rolls with those placeholder birthdates.

                      "These individuals met the requirements at the time to become registered voters and remain legally qualified electors today," the Ohio secretary of state's office said Monday.

                      Ohio already has what's considered to be the most aggressive approach to purging voter rolls...

                      As usual BrainFart's idiocy is a combination of their own incompetence at researching stories combined with projection and fantasies that claim the left engages in the kinds of awful behavior that those on the right do.

                      "Oh no, some people have placeholder birthdays of Jan 1 1900 on the electoral roll! It must be a Democratic conspiracy!"
                      This looks like another case of a low-info liberal finding a source that seems to say what he wants without comprehending what it's really saying, and this is exactly what the mainstream expects from gullible liberals like you. Like the Media Matters article that Tass posted earlier, Buzzfeed implies but never actually shows how Breitbart's reporting of the facts was incorrect or misleading. Heck, your source even straight up concedes that it's a "fact that 170 registered voters had birthdates that would make them more than 116 years old". Also, Breitbart never claimed that the 170 voters in Ohio were evidence of fraud, they merely stated it's a problem that needs to be addressed:
                      "...even with voter ID and cleansed voter rolls, there are still problems with Ohio elections.

                      "Consider that 170 registered voters listed as being over 116 years old still existed on the rolls of Ohio’s 12th Congressional when GAI accessed the data last August."

                      As for the claim that Democrats continue to try and create conditions in Ohio that are favorable to voter fraud, that's a statement coming from former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell who said that “hyper-partisan liberals…have their eyes on Ohio" and that they will do anything they can to roll back Ohio's hard-won voting safeguards to the point that George Sorors has invested tens of millions of dollars in lawsuits specifically to combat the issue.
                      "For the past four years, George Soros has spent millions of dollars trying to weaken Ohio’s election security by funding efforts to both block its implementation of Voter ID and prevent the state from removing inaccurate registrations.

                      "Soros pledged $5 million to fund Clinton campaign attorney Marc Elias’s efforts to fight voter ID laws in Ohio and two other states ahead of the 2016 election. Elias would file that suit in Ohio on behalf of several groups, including the Ohio Organizing Collaborative, that would have an employee sentenced to prison for voter fraud.

                      "In 2016, liberal activist groups Demos and the ACLU filed suit against the state of Ohio in an attempt to stop its efforts to remove inaccurate voter registrations from its rolls. Soros gave 1.25 million to Demos in 2016, on top of the more than $3 million he had given in previous years. And Soros has been even more generous with the ACLU, giving over $35 million for Trump related lawsuits."

                      https://www.breitbart.com/big-govern...116-years-old/

                      So go ahead, Dimbulb, cite something directly from the Breitbart article and then show how what they reported is actually wrong.

                      Well?
                      Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                      But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                      Than a fool in the eyes of God


                      From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                        The Republican multi-state voter purges generally seem carefully designed by them to try and take advantage of the fact that minority groups have a smaller range of names than white people. So your chances of having two people both named Santiago Garcia in two states with the same birthday are incredibly high and you can strike both off your voter rolls as "duplicates" by pretending they are the same person and that you are just cleaning up your voter roll. Works a treat and is increasingly needed, along with gerrymandering and voter ID scams to ensure Republicans win elections. They've become the party of electoral fraud.
                        I frankly don't think either party can claim "voting innocence." They both gerrymander - the Republicans just turned out to be better at it. They both engage in dirty tricks to reduce voter turn-out. In one state, members of one party set out to slash the tires of the "get out the vote" transportation vans. In another, one party put out word that, due to expected high voter turnout, the election was being split into two days, with their party voting on the actual election day and the other party voting the day after. The list goes on.

                        As I have said multiple times, I have no problem with a structured, consistent, national voterID policy. I believe it needs to be implemented in such a way that the number of disenfranchised voters is not significantly larger than the demonstrable cases of ACTUAL voter fraud. A simple way to do this is to do two things:

                        1) Implement a VoterID requirement tomorrow, but grandfather everyone already registered to vote.
                        2) Nationally coordinate all voter registrations with social security, IRS, military, post office, and other records. That should automatically trap a significant percentage of the deaths (soc sec stops checks) and movements (IRS gets tax returns).

                        This is 2018 - well into the age of the computer. This is not a difficult problem. It just needs resources.
                        The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                        I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                          As I have said multiple times, I have no problem with a structured, consistent, national voterID policy. I believe it needs to be implemented in such a way that the number of disenfranchised voters is not significantly larger than the demonstrable cases of ACTUAL voter fraud. A simple way to do this is to do two things:
                          You're about to diverge from your previous statement that...
                          Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                          I hold my vote sacred as well, CP. I'm just not willing to disenfranchise thousands of valid voters to protect myself against a handful of unscrupulous ones. There is a simple solution: make sure everyone who is eligible to vote has a valid ID to do so, THEN impose the voterID laws...

                          1) Implement a VoterID requirement tomorrow, but grandfather everyone already registered to vote.
                          A) That's different from what you've said in the past
                          2) "Grandfathering" people who are already registered may be giving a free pass to people who already are registered incorrectly, or even fraudulently

                          2) Nationally coordinate all voter registrations with social security, IRS, military, post office, and other records. That should automatically trap a significant percentage of the deaths (soc sec stops checks) and movements (IRS gets tax returns).
                          I disagree*!!!! (Though, I have yet to come up with an actual reason --- I'll get back to you on that)

                          This is 2018 - well into the age of the computer. This is not a difficult problem. It just needs resources.
                          It strikes me that some of the same people who are FOR VoterID would be OPPOSED to a "National ID Systems". That would be, AFAICT, the only way to make this work.


                          *OK, maybe not so much
                          The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Incidentally, FWIW, here's a good article on National ID....

                            The New National ID Systems

                            Americans have long rejected a national ID, but many U.S. state governments are quietly developing national ID systems in a variety of forms. One is the uniform identity card system envisioned by the REAL ID Act. That federal law, passed in 2005, seeks to subject state drivers’ licensing to federal data collection and information-sharing standards that will facilitate identification and tracking.

                            State promotion of the E-Verify background check system, which is intended to control the employment of illegal immigrants, is another path to a national ID. Successful implementation of E-Verify will require a national ID, and some states are already sharing driver data with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security so that it can be used in federally administered worker background checks.

                            Less well known are several other programs poised to produce the same results as a national ID without the requirement of an identity card or other formalities. These developments position states and the federal government to make once-ordinary behavior like driving on city streets and strolling the sidewalks of American towns into recordkeeping events for an overly attentive state. They compose what might be called the new national ID.

                            This paper summarizes the stances of each of the 50 states on various ID systems, including REAL ID, E-Verify, facial recognition, and license-plate scanning....

                            The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                              You're about to diverge from your previous statement that...

                              A) That's different from what you've said in the past
                              Yes, I am. But if you go back and read the entire thread, you will find a place where the idea of grandfathering came up and I noted that I thought it was a good idea that I had not previously considered, and my mind changed about how to best approach this problem. You may have missed that post.

                              Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                              2) "Grandfathering" people who are already registered may be giving a free pass to people who already are registered incorrectly, or even fraudulently
                              Yes, but at no worse levels than we have now (which have not been shown to be very substantial), and grandfathering eliminates the problem of voter disenfranchisement (which HAS been shown to be substantial). If a proper VoterID system is implemented, and a proper registration process, the rolls will eventually "clean themselves" as a result. So opportunity for voter fraud will reduce year by year as duplicates and deaths get culled by a properly working system, and as voters age and die off.

                              Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                              I disagree*!!!! (Though, I have yet to come up with an actual reason --- I'll get back to you on that)
                              That is one of your best thought-through responses. Nicely done...

                              Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                              It strikes me that some of the same people who are FOR VoterID would be OPPOSED to a "National ID Systems". That would be, AFAICT, the only way to make this work.
                              Yeah - funny that, huh?

                              Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                              *OK, maybe not so much
                              Make up your mind!
                              The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                              I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                                Incidentally, FWIW, here's a good article on National ID....

                                The New National ID Systems

                                Americans have long rejected a national ID, but many U.S. state governments are quietly developing national ID systems in a variety of forms. One is the uniform identity card system envisioned by the REAL ID Act. That federal law, passed in 2005, seeks to subject state drivers’ licensing to federal data collection and information-sharing standards that will facilitate identification and tracking.

                                State promotion of the E-Verify background check system, which is intended to control the employment of illegal immigrants, is another path to a national ID. Successful implementation of E-Verify will require a national ID, and some states are already sharing driver data with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security so that it can be used in federally administered worker background checks.

                                Less well known are several other programs poised to produce the same results as a national ID without the requirement of an identity card or other formalities. These developments position states and the federal government to make once-ordinary behavior like driving on city streets and strolling the sidewalks of American towns into recordkeeping events for an overly attentive state. They compose what might be called the new national ID.

                                This paper summarizes the stances of each of the 50 states on various ID systems, including REAL ID, E-Verify, facial recognition, and license-plate scanning....

                                Just what I need... something else to read...











                                JK...thanks!
                                The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                                I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                                Comment

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