Announcement

Collapse

Civics 101 Guidelines

Want to argue about politics? Healthcare reform? Taxes? Governments? You've come to the right place!

Try to keep it civil though. The rules still apply here.
See more
See less

170 Registered Voters in Ohio’s 12th District Listed as Over 116 Years Old

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #76
    Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
    Headline: "170 Registered Voters in Ohio’s 12th District Listed as Over 116 Years Old"

    https://www.breitbart.com/big-govern...116-years-old/

    I wonder what the chances are that each of them voted Democrat?
    Do you have reference confirming whether they were Democrat or Republican?
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

    Comment


    • #77
      Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
      Yes, I am. But if you go back and read the entire thread, you will find a place where the idea of grandfathering came up and I noted that I thought it was a good idea that I had not previously considered, and my mind changed about how to best approach this problem. You may have missed that post.
      Yeah, I think it got to that point where everybody was saying the same things over and over, and I kinda tuned out. I was meaning to ask if that was an evolution, and it appears so. And that's cool.

      Yes, but at no worse levels than we have now (which have not been shown to be very substantial), and grandfathering eliminates the problem of voter disenfranchisement (which HAS been shown to be substantial). If a proper VoterID system is implemented, and a proper registration process, the rolls will eventually "clean themselves" as a result. So opportunity for voter fraud will reduce year by year as duplicates and deaths get culled by a properly working system, and as voters age and die off.
      Unfortunately, I really don't think either party wants to actually solve any problem that can be used as a wedge to smear the other party.
      The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

      Comment


      • #78
        Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
        Yeah, I think it got to that point where everybody was saying the same things over and over, and I kinda tuned out. I was meaning to ask if that was an evolution, and it appears so. And that's cool.

        Unfortunately, I really don't think either party wants to actually solve any problem that can be used as a wedge to smear the other party.
        Unfortunately...I fear you may be correct.
        The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

        I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

        Comment


        • #79
          Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
          Also, Breitbart never claimed that the 170 voters in Ohio were evidence of fraud, they merely stated it's a problem that needs to be addressed:
          "...even with voter ID and cleansed voter rolls, there are still problems with Ohio elections.

          "Consider that 170 registered voters listed as being over 116 years old still existed on the rolls of Ohio’s 12th Congressional when GAI accessed the data last August."
          Unsurprisingly, that extract stops shortly before Breitbart did claim that they were evidence of fraud:
          "... And 72 voters over the age of 116 who “live” in Balderson’s district cast ballots in the 2016 election."
          So go ahead, Dimbulb, cite something directly from the Breitbart article and then show how what they reported is actually wrong.
          See above. Those voters live in the district, they don't "live" in the district.
          Last edited by Roy; 08-15-2018, 11:32 AM.
          Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

          MM: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
          MM on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

          seer: I believe that so called 'compassion' [for starving Palestinian kids] maybe a cover for anti Semitism, ...

          Comment


          • #80
            Originally posted by Ignorant Roy View Post
            Unsurprisingly, that extract stops shortly before Breitbart did claim that they were evidence of fraud:
            "... And 72 voters over the age of 116 who “live” in Balderson’s district cast ballots in the 2016 election."
            See above. Those voters live in the district, they don't "live" in the district.
            Since you and Dimbulb are batting for the same team then we'll call this strike two. Breitbart is simply pointing out a security hole in the system and suggesting, reasonably, that it could be used to commit fraud; they never said or implied that it's evidence of actual fraud. Sorry, but you twisting their words into saying what you want them to say doesn't count as them saying.

            Do you want to try for strike three, or do you want to save face and walk away from the plate?
            Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
            But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
            Than a fool in the eyes of God


            From "Fools Gold" by Petra

            Comment


            • #81
              Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
              Since you and Dimbulb are batting for the same team then we'll call this strike two. Breitbart is simply pointing out a security hole in the system and suggesting, reasonably, that it could be used to commit fraud; they never said or implied that it's evidence of actual fraud. Sorry, but you twisting their words into saying what you want them to say doesn't count as them saying.

              Do you want to try for strike three, or do you want to save face and walk away from the plate?
              I think I'm pretty sure what response this will invoke, but I have to admit that I am surprised by your avid defense of this "news" outlet and your persistent inability to see what Breitbart does. Take the article in question. First, nowhere on the page is this cited as an "opinion" or "analysis" page, but it is riddled with clearly opinionated, biased, speculations, and unsupported comments like, "But the Left hasn’t given up trying to create conditions favorable for voter fraud in Ohio" and "Electing a Democrat as the state’s top elections official would undoubtedly roll back the hard-won safeguards Ohio has implemented." Then there is the "live" (in quotes).

              Then we have the problem of what was left out of the article (i.e., the issue of birth dates not being required to register). However, the computer platform they are using has a data field record as part of the database, which means it is typically populated with a "null" date (e.g., 1/1/1900), hence the "over 116 years old" figure.

              The entire article is badly spun to the bias of its author. A quick search on "Eric Eggers" is enough to underscore what his primary agenda, and source of income, is in life. That does not make his data wrong (i.e., genetic fallacy), but it does get any prudent person carefully examining his facts before accepting them.

              This is what Brietbart does. There is nothing IN the article that is explicitly wrong, giving people like MM all the fodder they need to say, "prove to me it's wrong." The fact is, it usually isn't factually wrong. They actually get the facts straight most of the time. But they are selective about the facts they include, and then they couch it in language to further an existing agenda, requiring anyone reading the articles to dig carefully to expose the "spin." And anyone who does not, well, they're going to buy into it because it confirms the existing bias. It's about the impression the article leaves: that Ohio's voting system is out of control, and that 72 people who cannot possibly exist voted in the last election.

              It's why I do not waste my time with Breitbart (or news sources that are their counterpart on the left, for that matter). It's just too much work to sort it all out. If I see a headline that sources from Breitbart, and it is a topic I am interested in, I go find a few reputable media outlets reporting the same story, where I don't have to wade through as much spin - and opinions/analysis are clearly marked as such.
              Last edited by carpedm9587; 08-15-2018, 12:40 PM.
              The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

              I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

              Comment


              • #82
                Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                I think I'm pretty sure what response this will invoke, but I have to admit that I am surprised by your avid defense of this "news" outlet and your persistent inability to see what Breitbart does. Take the article in question. First, nowhere on the page is this cited as an "opinion" or "analysis" page, but it is riddled with clearly opinionated, biased, speculations, and unsupported comments like, "But the Left hasn’t given up trying to create conditions favorable for voter fraud in Ohio" and "Electing a Democrat as the state’s top elections official would undoubtedly roll back the hard-won safeguards Ohio has implemented." Then there is the "live" (in quotes).

                Then we have the problem of what was left out of the article (i.e., the issue of birth dates not being required to register). However, the computer platform they are using has a data field record as part of the database, which means it is typically populated with a "null" date (e.g., 1/1/1900), hence the "over 116 years old" figure.

                The entire article is badly spun to the bias of its author. A quick search on "Eric Eggers" is enough to underscore what his primary agenda, and source of income, is in life. That does not make his data wrong (i.e., genetic fallacy), but it does get any prudent person carefully examining his facts before accepting them.

                This is what Brietbart does. There is nothing IN the article that is explicitly wrong, giving people like MM all the fodder they need to say, "prove to me it's wrong." The fact is, it usually isn't factually wrong. They actually get the facts straight most of the time. But they are selective about the facts they include, and then they couch it in language to further an existing agenda, requiring anyone reading the articles to dig carefully to expose the "spin." And anyone who does not, well, they're going to buy into it because it confirms the existing bias. It's about the impression the article leaves: that Ohio's voting system is out of control, and that 72 people who cannot possibly exist voted in the last election.

                It's why I do not waste my time with Breitbart (or news sources that are their counterpart on the left, for that matter). It's just too much work to sort it all out. If I see a headline that sources from Breitbart, and it is a topic I am interested in, I go find a few reputable media outlets reporting the same story, where I don't have to wade through as much spin - and opinions/analysis are clearly marked as such.
                Like your liberal comrades, you complain about "spin" and inaccuracies, but never bother pointing out any errors in the article itself.

                "The article is factually correct, but I don't like how it's presented," is a pretty weak criticism, if it even qualifies a criticism.

                Does this count as strike three?
                Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                Than a fool in the eyes of God


                From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                Comment


                • #83
                  Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                  Like your liberal comrades, you complain about "spin" and inaccuracies, but never bother pointing out any errors in the article itself.

                  "The article is factually correct, but I don't like how it's presented," is a pretty weak criticism, if it even qualifies a criticism.

                  Does this count as strike three?
                  Pretty much as expected. You can count it any way you wish, MM.

                  My hope is, deep down, you are a rational enough person to know something is wrong with Breitbart and how it reports news, and that someday that cognitive dissonance will cause you to re-examine your use of it. But it is entirely possible I am wrong about that. I know some friends on the left who are rabidly devoted to "The Daily Beast" and "Jezebel" and any attempt to get them to see how badly skewed their news source is likewise falls on deaf ears. They say pretty much the same things you do, because the far left media outlets use the same tactics of selective facts, badly skewed language, and obscuring the line between opinion/analysis and news.
                  The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                  I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                  Comment


                  • #84
                    Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                    Good point. No, that was for month/day only. For a 70 year window, you get to a better than 50% chance at 188 people. So all you need is a group of 188 people with the same name nationwide, and you have a 50/50 chance of false positives for each name! If you go to the last four digits of the social security number, the 50/50 point is 223 people (there are 10,000 possible combination of this number). On a whim, I did a search on my name on a couple of people search sites, and came up with between 100 and 250 names (in the U.S.), depending on which site I used. My name is not a very common one because my mother left the "a" out of "Michel." When you look at more common names, the numbers go through the roof. I also took a look at my phone book, and there are 3 people with my name listed - for an area with about 100K people. If that ratio were to hold, it suggests there are some 10,000 people in the U.S. with my name. Even if each area of that size had 1/10th the density, it's still 1,000 people.

                    Unless the comparisons are made with a completely unique identifier (e.g., the entire social security number), and I have never found a study that uses that basis, the studies are rife with error.



                    I actually make money on this when I teach a math class. Anytime the class has more than 25 people in it, I bet the class $5 for each person who wants in on the bet. At 26 people, the odds are almost 60/40. The odds go to 70/30 at 30 people, and 80/20 at 34 people. At 50 people, it's 97/3. So it's a pretty decent bet. People look around the room and think, "26 people, 365 days, no way!" It's a great object lesson in probabilities.
                    Can you point to where you got this? I've been trying to replicate it, but I haven't gotten the number involving the soc security number to match. I've been using the collision probability formula found here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem, which seems sensible. It works for the birthday/year number(setting d to 365*70), but the soc sec number(setting d to 365*70*9999) is really low(on the order of .01% for 223 people), and no other combination (such as 9999 and 70 or 9999 and 365) matches it either. What am I missing? Messing around a bit, I found 36500 for d produces ~50% for 223 people, which seems like an odd number to choose. Is it only the last two digits of the soc security number that are checked? I'm rather confused now.

                    Comment


                    • #85
                      Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                      Pretty much as expected. You can count it any way you wish, MM.

                      My hope is, deep down, you are a rational enough person to know something is wrong with Breitbart and how it reports news, and that someday that cognitive dissonance will cause you to re-examine your use of it. But it is entirely possible I am wrong about that. I know some friends on the left who are rabidly devoted to "The Daily Beast" and "Jezebel" and any attempt to get them to see how badly skewed their news source is likewise falls on deaf ears. They say pretty much the same things you do, because the far left media outlets use the same tactics of selective facts, badly skewed language, and obscuring the line between opinion/analysis and news.
                      It would certainly help your case if you explained exactly how the article in question is unfairly biased, or what information they left out that would change the thrust of the story.

                      And for your information, I don't blindly trust everything I read on Breitbart, nor are they my sole source of information. I just like referencing them here because it triggers you liberals.
                      Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                      But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                      Than a fool in the eyes of God


                      From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                      Comment


                      • #86
                        Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                        My hope is, deep down, you are a rational enough person to know something is wrong with Breitbart and how it reports news,
                        I used to think MM must be getting financial gain out of spreading Breitbart links because I thought no one could possibly be actually that stupid as to actually believe it all. Then I got to know MM more.
                        "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                        "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                        "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                        Comment


                        • #87
                          Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                          Headline: "170 Registered Voters in Ohio’s 12th District Listed as Over 116 Years Old"

                          https://www.breitbart.com/big-govern...116-years-old/

                          I wonder what the chances are that each of them voted Democrat?
                          I believe the question remains unanswered. Can you document whether they were Democrat or Republican?
                          Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                          Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                          But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                          go with the flow the river knows . . .

                          Frank

                          I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                          Comment


                          • #88
                            Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                            I used to think MM must be getting financial gain out of spreading Breitbart links because I thought no one could possibly be actually that stupid as to actually believe it all. Then I got to know MM more.
                            He's a stooge of the St Petersburg Troll Factory. It's obvious.
                            “He felt that his whole life was a kind of dream and he sometimes wondered whose it was and whether they were enjoying it.” - Douglas Adams.

                            Comment


                            • #89
                              Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                              Unsurprisingly, that extract stops shortly before Breitbart did claim that they were evidence of fraud:
                              "... And 72 voters over the age of 116 who “live” in Balderson’s district cast ballots in the 2016 election."
                              Since you and Dimbulb are batting for the same team then we'll call this strike two. Breitbart is simply pointing out a security hole in the system and suggesting, reasonably, that it could be used to commit fraud; they never said or implied that it's evidence of actual fraud.
                              They implied that 72 votes had been cast by persons impersonating dead voters. Actual fraud.
                              Do you want to try for strike three, or do you want to save face and walk away from the plate?
                              Balls.
                              Last edited by Roy; 08-16-2018, 06:26 AM.
                              Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

                              MM: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
                              MM on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

                              seer: I believe that so called 'compassion' [for starving Palestinian kids] maybe a cover for anti Semitism, ...

                              Comment


                              • #90
                                Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                                It would certainly help your case if you explained exactly how the article in question is unfairly biased, or what information they left out that would change the thrust of the story.
                                Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

                                MM: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
                                MM on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

                                seer: I believe that so called 'compassion' [for starving Palestinian kids] maybe a cover for anti Semitism, ...

                                Comment

                                Related Threads

                                Collapse

                                Topics Statistics Last Post
                                Started by little_monkey, Yesterday, 04:19 PM
                                6 responses
                                48 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post whag
                                by whag
                                 
                                Started by whag, 03-26-2024, 04:38 PM
                                42 responses
                                232 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post whag
                                by whag
                                 
                                Started by rogue06, 03-26-2024, 11:45 AM
                                24 responses
                                104 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post Ronson
                                by Ronson
                                 
                                Started by Hypatia_Alexandria, 03-26-2024, 09:21 AM
                                32 responses
                                176 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post Hypatia_Alexandria  
                                Started by Hypatia_Alexandria, 03-26-2024, 08:34 AM
                                73 responses
                                310 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post Hypatia_Alexandria  
                                Working...
                                X