OK - I have to admit it - but I don't get it. How can anyone see the economy as "going gang-busters" in any way that is unique. Let's look at some of the numbers.
GDP Growth Rate: So if we look at the numbers, the last quarters seem impressive. They average 3.0 sustained rate. But go back and look at the same 6 quarter period beginning in 2014 and the average is 3.25% growth. So I'm not seeing anything in the last year and a half that is "unusual." Indeed, the 2014 seems more impressive because it came on the heals of a massive recession. Today is is a period of economic growth that has been happening for almost 10 years, and much can be attributed to the "tax cut. But most economist see the tax cut as the equivalent of a "sugar high" and predict (as with all sugar highs) that the patient will crash. We have yet to see if that prediction is accurate. So it's a little too early to crow.
Job growth: Since the start of his administration (end of January 2017), some 4.054M jobs have been created in the U.S. under Trump - an impressive 193K/month for 21 months. Most consider anything above 150K healthy. However, the second term of the Obama administration saw the creation of 10.414M jobs in 48 months, a really impressive 216+K jobs per month for four years! Trump has actually slowed down, and we have yet to see if it will be sustained. so good - but not as good as Obama's second term.
Trade Deficit: And after all of the tariffs and posturing, what has Trump achieved? 2018 will be the first time the U.S. has achieved a trade deficit record in the last 12 years. The trade deficit was actually smaller under Obama, but for the first time since he Bush administration, in 2018 it is on track to set a new record. Nicely done, Mr. Trump.
Federal Deficit: So what about the federal deficit? For the second year in a row, it is on target to grow. "Not as much as under Obama," say the Trump supporters, and point to the record deficits in Obama's first two years. Here's the rub. Those deficits soared as part of a massive recession. We actually expect deficit spending in a recession - but then we expect reduction/elimination of that deficit in good times. Save when times are good - go into debt when times are bad. Seems pretty obvious. But not under Trump. Times are good - and our deficit is increasing. Why? Because we gave the economy a false shot in the arm with a massive tax cut primarily aimed at the rich, and simultaneously increased our spending.
So...great economy? Maybe. Progress? I suggest not...
GDP Growth Rate: So if we look at the numbers, the last quarters seem impressive. They average 3.0 sustained rate. But go back and look at the same 6 quarter period beginning in 2014 and the average is 3.25% growth. So I'm not seeing anything in the last year and a half that is "unusual." Indeed, the 2014 seems more impressive because it came on the heals of a massive recession. Today is is a period of economic growth that has been happening for almost 10 years, and much can be attributed to the "tax cut. But most economist see the tax cut as the equivalent of a "sugar high" and predict (as with all sugar highs) that the patient will crash. We have yet to see if that prediction is accurate. So it's a little too early to crow.
Job growth: Since the start of his administration (end of January 2017), some 4.054M jobs have been created in the U.S. under Trump - an impressive 193K/month for 21 months. Most consider anything above 150K healthy. However, the second term of the Obama administration saw the creation of 10.414M jobs in 48 months, a really impressive 216+K jobs per month for four years! Trump has actually slowed down, and we have yet to see if it will be sustained. so good - but not as good as Obama's second term.
Trade Deficit: And after all of the tariffs and posturing, what has Trump achieved? 2018 will be the first time the U.S. has achieved a trade deficit record in the last 12 years. The trade deficit was actually smaller under Obama, but for the first time since he Bush administration, in 2018 it is on track to set a new record. Nicely done, Mr. Trump.
Federal Deficit: So what about the federal deficit? For the second year in a row, it is on target to grow. "Not as much as under Obama," say the Trump supporters, and point to the record deficits in Obama's first two years. Here's the rub. Those deficits soared as part of a massive recession. We actually expect deficit spending in a recession - but then we expect reduction/elimination of that deficit in good times. Save when times are good - go into debt when times are bad. Seems pretty obvious. But not under Trump. Times are good - and our deficit is increasing. Why? Because we gave the economy a false shot in the arm with a massive tax cut primarily aimed at the rich, and simultaneously increased our spending.
So...great economy? Maybe. Progress? I suggest not...
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