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  • The Economy

    OK - I have to admit it - but I don't get it. How can anyone see the economy as "going gang-busters" in any way that is unique. Let's look at some of the numbers.

    GDP Growth Rate: So if we look at the numbers, the last quarters seem impressive. They average 3.0 sustained rate. But go back and look at the same 6 quarter period beginning in 2014 and the average is 3.25% growth. So I'm not seeing anything in the last year and a half that is "unusual." Indeed, the 2014 seems more impressive because it came on the heals of a massive recession. Today is is a period of economic growth that has been happening for almost 10 years, and much can be attributed to the "tax cut. But most economist see the tax cut as the equivalent of a "sugar high" and predict (as with all sugar highs) that the patient will crash. We have yet to see if that prediction is accurate. So it's a little too early to crow.

    Job growth: Since the start of his administration (end of January 2017), some 4.054M jobs have been created in the U.S. under Trump - an impressive 193K/month for 21 months. Most consider anything above 150K healthy. However, the second term of the Obama administration saw the creation of 10.414M jobs in 48 months, a really impressive 216+K jobs per month for four years! Trump has actually slowed down, and we have yet to see if it will be sustained. so good - but not as good as Obama's second term.

    Trade Deficit: And after all of the tariffs and posturing, what has Trump achieved? 2018 will be the first time the U.S. has achieved a trade deficit record in the last 12 years. The trade deficit was actually smaller under Obama, but for the first time since he Bush administration, in 2018 it is on track to set a new record. Nicely done, Mr. Trump.

    Federal Deficit: So what about the federal deficit? For the second year in a row, it is on target to grow. "Not as much as under Obama," say the Trump supporters, and point to the record deficits in Obama's first two years. Here's the rub. Those deficits soared as part of a massive recession. We actually expect deficit spending in a recession - but then we expect reduction/elimination of that deficit in good times. Save when times are good - go into debt when times are bad. Seems pretty obvious. But not under Trump. Times are good - and our deficit is increasing. Why? Because we gave the economy a false shot in the arm with a massive tax cut primarily aimed at the rich, and simultaneously increased our spending.

    So...great economy? Maybe. Progress? I suggest not...
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

  • #2
    Meanwhile the unemployment drops to a rate not seen for 50 years, with rates among blacks and Hispanics at record lows. And while liberals sullenly try to downplay how well it is doing Obama runs around seeking to take credit for it.

    I'm always still in trouble again

    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
    "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
    "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
      Meanwhile the unemployment drops to a rate not seen for 50 years, with rates among blacks and Hispanics at record lows. And while liberals sullenly try to downplay how well it is doing Obama runs around seeking to take credit for it.
      Rogue - the unemployment rate was 1 percentage point away from that level when Trump took office. It dropped from 10% in 2010 to 4.7% when Trump took office. It has dropped one percentage point (3.7) since then. So the claim that much of this had to do with Trump's efforts is negligible. Meanwhile, the tax cut hasn't done much of what it was promised to do. This article summarizes it well. I had never encountered "Splinter" before, and the language in the article made me suspicious, so I checked them out. Mediabiasfactcheck.com rates them "moderate to strong left bias." Allsides.com concurs. So I followed up on the numbers they cite. The language leans strongly left, but the numbers are spot on as far as I can tell. The conclusion:
      • A huge chunk of both the tax cut and the repratriated money went to stock buybacks and other strategies to reward the already rich.
      • The average Joe saw a salary increase equivalent to about $5 per week.
      • Taxes from businesses has not increased - it has actually dropped
      • The deficit is soaring to new highs - and doing so in a GOOD economy, when it has no good reason to do so.
      • While job growth has continued nationally, the companies with major gains from the tax cut actually reduced jobs
      • Most companies report they did not change investment or hiring plans as a result of the tax cut


      The list could go on. Trump and Congress gave the economy a sugar high - a nitrous oxide boost - and like both of those things, it won't last. Economists warned about this when it was proposed, and we are just starting to see the edges of it.

      But 2020 isn't too far away, and we can #dumpthetrump. The 2018 election midterms offered some good news with respect to that. In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote by 2 percentage points and squeaked through the electoral college on narrow wins in three states (less than 100,000 votes total). Those states were Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), and Pennsylvania (20). Well, all three of those states just elected both Democratic governors AND Democratic Senators. Meanwhile, Trump's approval has essentially flatlined at a -10 aggregate approval.

      2020 just can't come soon enough...
      The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

      I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

      Comment


      • #4
        My retirement account and bank account have gone way up. The company I work for is doing well and giving out raises.

        That's my measuring stick.

        I have to live in "the economy" so when I am doing well, the economy is doing well. At least for me.

        It just seems that liberals and people like carp are so desperate NOT to acknowledge the economy is doing well that they resort to trying to play number games with statistics to prove how bad or mediocre we are doing. Sour grapes?

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Sparko View Post
          It just seems that liberals and people like carp are so desperate NOT to acknowledge the economy is doing well that they resort to trying to play number games with statistics to prove how bad or mediocre we are doing. Sour grapes?
          It's like what they did with Obama: anything bad was blamed on Bush, and anything good was credited to Obama. Only now it's Trump they're trying to blame.
          Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
          But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
          Than a fool in the eyes of God


          From "Fools Gold" by Petra

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Sparko View Post
            My retirement account and bank account have gone way up. The company I work for is doing well and giving out raises.

            That's my measuring stick.
            That is basically the equivalent of saying, "the automotive industry is doing GREAT because my car runs well."

            Originally posted by Sparko View Post
            I have to live in "the economy" so when I am doing well, the economy is doing well. At least for me.

            It just seems that liberals and people like carp are so desperate NOT to acknowledge the economy is doing well that they resort to trying to play number games with statistics to prove how bad or mediocre we are doing. Sour grapes?
            Actually - I have no problem acknowledging that the economy is currently doing well. I just don't see Trump or the Republicans as the cause, and I dislike their means. I don't have to "play number games with statistics" (actually - I think that's the only kind of game you CAN play with statistics... ) to show this. Job creation is doing well under the Trump administration - as I noted earlier. It is well above the healthy mark. Just not as well as it was in Obama's second term. If Trump gets credit - it seems to me so should Obama, right? GDP for the last six quarters has hit that magic 3.0 (as an average) under Trump. It hit an average of 3.25 for the corresponding months in 2014 under Obama. I don't remember there being a lot of "a-ta-boy" for Obama at the time. Pretty much across the board, Trump has benefited from the legacy Obama left him, while Obama benefited from inheriting a massive recession from his predecessor - but no one seems to remember or acknowledge that.

            It also seems to me that most Republicans have a serious problem with "wealth redistribution" when it is being done "rich-to-poor." That is a serious no-no. But they have no problem doing it when it is from our descendants to the current population. After all, that is essentially what deficit spending is: we are spending money we don't have, and our children and grandchildren will have to pay the tab. So we are "redistributing wealth" from future generations to the current generation. And Trump and the Republicans are driving that train, All claims to "the tax cut will pay for itself" are simply untrue. The tax cut is being paid for with massive debt.

            To be fair - I have little doubt the Democrats will do exactly the same thing when they gain power. Deficit spending is a major issue - but usually only for the party out of power at the time.
            The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

            I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
              It's like what they did with Obama: anything bad was blamed on Bush, and anything good was credited to Obama. Only now it's Trump they're trying to blame.
              Oh my...

              And are you completely blind to the "anything good is credited to Trump and everything bad blamed on Obama" dynamic from many (most?) on the right? I have to admit that this post of yours made my irony meter ring like a gong.
              The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

              I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                It also seems to me that most Republicans have a serious problem with "wealth redistribution" when it is being done "rich-to-poor." That is a serious no-no. But they have no problem doing it when it is from our descendants to the current population. After all, that is essentially what deficit spending is: we are spending money we don't have, and our children and grandchildren will have to pay the tab. So we are "redistributing wealth" from future generations to the current generation.
                Wow you can't see the difference in giving your money to your family versus giving your money to random people?

                I guess when you die, all of your savings is going to the random poor rather than your wife and children?

                At what point is the government taking your hard earned money and giving it to other people that they choose, a good thing, Carp?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                  Wow you can't see the difference in giving your money to your family versus giving your money to random people?
                  Umm... both are taking money from one group and "giving it to random people," Sparko. One takes it from the wealthy and supports the poor. The other takes it from future generations and supports pretty much anything this current generation wants. Maybe you need to reread the post?

                  Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                  I guess when you die, all of your savings is going to the random poor rather than your wife and children?
                  Yes - when we die, our accumulated wealth is going to charities to be used for programs for children and the elderly. I don't expect to know any of them.

                  Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                  At what point is the government taking your hard earned money and giving it to other people that they choose, a good thing, Carp?
                  They are called "taxes" Sparko - and governments do it all the time. My taxes pay for roads, the military, schools, and so forth, all of which end up "benefiting other people." They also provide for a safety net for the poor, and many other things that make our society better and saffer. I would consider all of these things a "good thing" and are part of my social contract for "being a citizen" of this country. If I don't like what the government is doing with the money - I vote for other people or campaign against it or both. If it doesn't change - there are always other countries. That's how it works.
                  The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                  I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                    Oh my...

                    And are you completely blind to the "anything good is credited to Trump and everything bad blamed on Obama" dynamic from many (most?) on the right? I have to admit that this post of yours made my irony meter ring like a gong.
                    "Whataboutism"

                    I DENOUNCE DONALD J. TRUMP AND ALL HIS IMMORAL ACTS.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Zymologist View Post
                      "Whataboutism"

                      No - doesn't qualify.


                      I think some of you folks don't really get the "whataboutism" concept.
                      The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                      I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                        No - doesn't qualify.


                        I think some of you folks don't really get the "whataboutism" concept.
                        That was partly tongue-in-cheek, but if you're saying I should be more charitable and not be so quick to see "whataboutism" everywhere...I agree.

                        ETA: Also, why doesn't it qualify? Mountain Man mentioned something about everything being blamed on Trump, and you almost literally said "but what about many on the right doing this?"

                        If you're finding this frequent crying of "whataboutism" annoying, without trying to understand the intent of what it's responding to, I completely understand.
                        Last edited by Zymologist; 11-14-2018, 12:01 PM.
                        I DENOUNCE DONALD J. TRUMP AND ALL HIS IMMORAL ACTS.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                          Umm... both are taking money from one group and "giving it to random people," Sparko. One takes it from the wealthy and supports the poor. The other takes it from future generations and supports pretty much anything this current generation wants. Maybe you need to reread the post?
                          I misread your post. I thought you were comparing taking money from the rich to give to the poor to the rich giving their money to their descendants (e.g. inheritance)



                          Yes - when we die, our accumulated wealth is going to charities to be used for programs for children and the elderly. I don't expect to know any of them.
                          And you are leaving nothing to your Children? that's rough.


                          They are called "taxes" Sparko - and governments do it all the time. My taxes pay for roads, the military, schools, and so forth, all of which end up "benefiting other people." They also provide for a safety net for the poor, and many other things that make our society better and saffer. I would consider all of these things a "good thing" and are part of my social contract for "being a citizen" of this country. If I don't like what the government is doing with the money - I vote for other people or campaign against it or both. If it doesn't change - there are always other countries. That's how it works.
                          Y'know... Earlier in another thread when I mentioned wealth equality and why California doesn't do it, you started in with not all liberals want such a thing and pretty much tried to defeat my question by pretending it wasn't really a liberal thing after all. And here you are pushing for it.

                          I don't mind taxes if they are fair. But when the government starts telling certain groups that they have too much money and don't deserve it and then takes it away from them to give to people who didn't earn it, then it ceases to be taxes and becomes theft.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                            No - doesn't qualify.


                            I think some of you folks don't really get the "whataboutism" concept.
                            It's an empty slogan shouted out in a futile attempt to cover up hypocritical double standards

                            I'm always still in trouble again

                            "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                            "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                            "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                              It's an empty slogan shouted out in a futile attempt to cover up hypocritical double standards
                              you got it.

                              Comment

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