Announcement

Collapse

Natural Science 301 Guidelines

This is an open forum area for all members for discussions on all issues of science and origins. This area will and does get volatile at times, but we ask that it be kept to a dull roar, and moderators will intervene to keep the peace if necessary. This means obvious trolling and flaming that becomes a problem will be dealt with, and you might find yourself in the doghouse.

As usual, Tweb rules apply. If you haven't read them now would be a good time.

Forum Rules: Here
See more
See less

Ice Age on the Way?

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Ice Age on the Way?

    Time to stir the ol' pudding stick...


    Source: The Chill of Solar Minimum


    The sun is entering one of the deepest Solar Minima of the Space Age. Sunspots have been absent for most of 2018, and the sun’s ultraviolet output has sharply dropped. New research shows that Earth’s upper atmosphere is responding.

    “We see a cooling trend,” says Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center. “High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.”

    These results come from the SABER instrument onboard NASA’s TIMED satellite. SABER monitors infrared emissions from carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitric oxide (NO), two substances that play a key role in the energy balance of air 100 to 300 kilometers above our planet’s surface. By measuring the infrared glow of these molecules, SABER can assess the thermal state of gas at the very top of the atmosphere–a layer researchers call “the thermosphere.”

    “The thermosphere always cools off during Solar Minimum. It’s one of the most important ways the solar cycle affects our planet,” explains Mlynczak, who is the associate principal investigator for SABER.

    When the thermosphere cools, it shrinks, literally decreasing the radius of Earth’s atmosphere. This shrinkage decreases aerodynamic drag on satellites in low-Earth orbit, extending their lifetimes. That’s the good news. The bad news is, it also delays the natural decay of space junk, resulting in a more cluttered environment around Earth.

    00000000000000ar1aa1bbb.jpg
    Above: Layers of the atmosphere. Credit: NASA

    To help keep track of what’s happening in the thermosphere, Mlynczak and colleagues recently introduced the “Thermosphere Climate Index” (TCI)–a number expressed in Watts that tells how much heat NO molecules are dumping into space. During Solar Maximum, TCI is high (“Hot”); during Solar Minimum, it is low (“Cold”).

    “Right now, it is very low indeed,” says Mlynczak. “SABER is currently measuring 33 billion Watts of infrared power from NO. That’s 10 times smaller than we see during more active phases of the solar cycle.”

    Although SABER has been in orbit for only 17 years, Mlynczak and colleagues recently calculated TCI going all the way back to the 1940s. “SABER taught us to do this by revealing how TCI depends on other variables such as geomagnetic activity and the sun’s UV output–things that have been measured for decades,” he explains.

    00000000000000ar00.jpg
    Above: An historical record of the Thermosphere Climate Index. Mlynczak and colleagues recently published a paper on the TCI showing that the state of the thermosphere can be discussed using a set of five plain language terms: Cold, Cool, Neutral, Warm, and Hot.

    As 2018 comes to an end, the Thermosphere Climate Index is on the verge of setting a Space Age record for Cold. “We’re not there quite yet,” says Mlynczak, “but it could happen in a matter of months.”

    “We are especially pleased that SABER is gathering information so important for tracking the effect of the Sun on our atmosphere,” says James Russell, SABER’s Principal Investigator at Hampton University. “A more than 16-year record of long-term changes in the thermal condition of the atmosphere more than 70 miles above the surface is something we did not expect for an instrument designed to last only 3-years in-orbit.”

    Soon, the Thermosphere Climate Index will be added to Spaceweather.com as a regular data feed, so our readers can monitor the state of the upper atmosphere just as researchers do.




    Source

    © Copyright Original Source



    Full disclosure: the Ice Age reference comes from how this has been reported by the press (for example: A mini ice age could be on the way and it’s going to get very, very cold



    I'm always still in trouble again

    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
    "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
    "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

  • #2
    So... how does this correlate with average surface temperature over that time?
    Enter the Church and wash away your sins. For here there is a hospital and not a court of law. Do not be ashamed to enter the Church; be ashamed when you sin, but not when you repent. – St. John Chrysostom

    Veritas vos Liberabit<>< Learn Greek <>< Look here for an Orthodox Church in America<><Ancient Faith Radio
    sigpic
    I recommend you do not try too hard and ...research as little as possible. Such weighty things give me a headache. - Shunyadragon, Baha'i apologist

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by One Bad Pig View Post
      So... how does this correlate with average surface temperature over that time?
      Ask here

      I'm always still in trouble again

      "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
      "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
      "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

      Comment


      • #4
        Only global warming can save us!! Break out the coal!

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
          Ask here
          Enter the Church and wash away your sins. For here there is a hospital and not a court of law. Do not be ashamed to enter the Church; be ashamed when you sin, but not when you repent. – St. John Chrysostom

          Veritas vos Liberabit<>< Learn Greek <>< Look here for an Orthodox Church in America<><Ancient Faith Radio
          sigpic
          I recommend you do not try too hard and ...research as little as possible. Such weighty things give me a headache. - Shunyadragon, Baha'i apologist

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by One Bad Pig View Post
            So... how does this correlate with average surface temperature over that time?
            AFAIK lower solar output is correlated with cooler temperatures, but the variation is in terms of a few tenths of a degree.
            Find my speling strange? I'm trying this out: Simplified Speling. Feel free to join me.

            "Nature has placed mankind under the governance of two sovereign masters, pain and pleasure. It is for them alone to point out what we ought to do, as well as to determine what we shall do."-Jeremy Bentham

            "We question all our beliefs, except for the ones that we really believe in, and those we never think to question."-Orson Scott Card

            Comment


            • #7
              I believe this solar cycle has more effect on rainfall and weather patterns, and the effects on the surface temperatures is minimal at best,


              Source: https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/rind_03/[U

              ]


              Do Variations in the Solar Cycle Affect Our Climate System?
              By David Rind — January 2009

              There have been many arguments as to whether or not the eleven-year sunspot cycle affects our weather and climate. With our increased ability to monitor the sun, we are now aware that there is a small change in the total solar irradiance accompanying shifts from solar maximum conditions (with many sunspots) to solar minimum (with, basically, none). There is also a more substantial change in the ultraviolet (UV) portion of the solar spectrum, with direct impacts primarily in the stratosphere (above ~10km).

              The effect of these changes on our temperature record has been noted by some researchers, and, like the change in solar irradiance, it too appears to be small. But there is little agreement on just how that change arises. Furthermore, there are claims that the sunspot cycle is associated with changes in storm tracks and rainfall. How could this happen with so little change in total energy?

              To understand the processes involved, we recently completed an extensive series of climate model experiments, involving 1600 simulated years with varying UV and total solar irradiance (TSI). Our experiments show that the solar cycle influences tropospheric rainfall patterns in a manner consistent with some observations, with increased solar activity favoring precipitation north of the equator (for example, the South Asian monsoon) and decreased precipitation both near the equator and at northern mid-latitudes. The word "favoring" is used advisedly; in the experiments it is a "weighting of the dice", an increase in the likelihood of these effects while accounting for less than one standard deviation of the variability (a result found in observations as well). Locally it can account for 15-20% of rainfall totals. The influence also seems to have been modified by global warming, and so its effectiveness may change with time. The impact of the solar cycle on precipitation in the model experiments arises from two different mechanisms, the first involving UV changes, the second total solar irradiance.

              The increase of incident solar UV during solar maximum conditions leads to increased generation of stratospheric ozone in the mid-to-upper stratosphere, which ultimately results in greater ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere. This helps warm that region via both short- and long-wave absorption. In response to this more stable vertical profile for tropical tropospheric processes, tropical convection preferentially shifts off the equator, favoring monsoonal effects during Northern Hemisphere summer and on the annual average.

              © Copyright Original Source

              Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
              Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
              But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

              go with the flow the river knows . . .

              Frank

              I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

              Comment

              Related Threads

              Collapse

              Topics Statistics Last Post
              Started by Hypatia_Alexandria, 03-18-2024, 12:15 PM
              48 responses
              135 views
              0 likes
              Last Post Sparko
              by Sparko
               
              Started by Sparko, 03-07-2024, 08:52 AM
              16 responses
              74 views
              0 likes
              Last Post shunyadragon  
              Started by rogue06, 02-28-2024, 11:06 AM
              6 responses
              47 views
              0 likes
              Last Post shunyadragon  
              Working...
              X