Announcement

Collapse

Natural Science 301 Guidelines

This is an open forum area for all members for discussions on all issues of science and origins. This area will and does get volatile at times, but we ask that it be kept to a dull roar, and moderators will intervene to keep the peace if necessary. This means obvious trolling and flaming that becomes a problem will be dealt with, and you might find yourself in the doghouse.

As usual, Tweb rules apply. If you haven't read them now would be a good time.

Forum Rules: Here
See more
See less

‘Alarming’ Study Claiming Global Warming Heating Up Oceans Based on Math Error

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • ‘Alarming’ Study Claiming Global Warming Heating Up Oceans Based on Math Error

    I thought it was a good time, with other subjects cooling off, to throw some red meat out there.

    High Priests of the Order of the Warming Planet, set me straight....

    ‘Alarming’ Study Claiming Global Warming Heating Up Oceans Based on Math Error



    Getty Images

    BY: Elizabeth Harrington Follow @LizWFB
    November 15, 2018 5:00 am

    A highly circulated study claiming oceans are warming at a much higher rate due to global warming contains "key errors," forcing researchers to issue a correction.

    The study published by the journal Nature on Oct. 31 by researchers at Princeton University and UC San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography claimed the oceans were warming at a rate 60 percent higher than previously thought.

    However, a mathematical error discovered by independent climate scientist Nic Lewis after he perused the study's first page has led the journal to retract its key finding. The study has a much larger margin of error, making their findings of a 60 percent increase in ocean warming less precise, and actually between 10 percent and 70 percent.

    The lead researcher now says its findings are practically meaningless, with a margin of error "too big now to really weigh in" on ocean temperatures.

    When first published, the study led to "alarming" warnings in mainstream media outlets, claiming the "world has seriously underestimated the amount of heat soaked up by our oceans over the past 25 years."

    CNN initially reported the planet is "‘more sensitive' than thought" based on the study and would lead to "more dire" predictions than the U.N.'s latest, which gave Earth only 12 more years.

    CNN has since reported "errors were made" but is still defending the study claiming its scientific errors "do not invalidate the study's methodology."

    The Washington Post is now reporting the scientists made "key errors."

    "A major study claimed the oceans were warming much faster than previously thought," the paper reported. "But researchers now say they can't necessarily make that claim."

    "Unfortunately, we made mistakes here," said Ralph Keeling, a Scripps researcher and coauthor of the study, adding the mathematical error means a "much larger margin of error in the findings."
    The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

  • #2
    I was going to post this earlier, but I was looking for a thread on the alarming study and couldn't find one.
    Enter the Church and wash away your sins. For here there is a hospital and not a court of law. Do not be ashamed to enter the Church; be ashamed when you sin, but not when you repent. – St. John Chrysostom

    Veritas vos Liberabit<>< Learn Greek <>< Look here for an Orthodox Church in America<><Ancient Faith Radio
    sigpic
    I recommend you do not try too hard and ...research as little as possible. Such weighty things give me a headache. - Shunyadragon, Baha'i apologist

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by One Bad Pig View Post
      I was going to post this earlier, but I was looking for a thread on the alarming study and couldn't find one.
      Here's one from CNN:

      World's oceans have absorbed 60% more heat than previously thought, study finds
      The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

      Comment


      • #4
        So all the previous scientists were right about how fast the planet is warming, and this new study two weeks ago isn't right and was immediately corrected. Okay.

        Not sure why you're posting something that acknowledges the scientific establishment was right about the rate of global warming.
        "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
        "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
        "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Starlight View Post
          So all the previous scientists were right about how fast the planet is warming, and this new study two weeks ago isn't right and was immediately corrected. Okay.

          Not sure why you're posting something that acknowledges the scientific establishment was right about the rate of global warming.
          You're so cute.
          The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
            You're so cute.
            I try.

            "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
            "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
            "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
              I thought it was a good time, with other subjects cooling off, to throw some red meat out there.

              High Priests of the Order of the Warming Planet, set me straight....

              ‘Alarming’ Study Claiming Global Warming Heating Up Oceans Based on Math Error



              Getty Images

              BY: Elizabeth Harrington Follow @LizWFB
              November 15, 2018 5:00 am

              A highly circulated study claiming oceans are warming at a much higher rate due to global warming contains "key errors," forcing researchers to issue a correction.

              The study published by the journal Nature on Oct. 31 by researchers at Princeton University and UC San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography claimed the oceans were warming at a rate 60 percent higher than previously thought.

              However, a mathematical error discovered by independent climate scientist Nic Lewis after he perused the study's first page has led the journal to retract its key finding. The study has a much larger margin of error, making their findings of a 60 percent increase in ocean warming less precise, and actually between 10 percent and 70 percent.

              The lead researcher now says its findings are practically meaningless, with a margin of error "too big now to really weigh in" on ocean temperatures.

              When first published, the study led to "alarming" warnings in mainstream media outlets, claiming the "world has seriously underestimated the amount of heat soaked up by our oceans over the past 25 years."

              CNN initially reported the planet is "‘more sensitive' than thought" based on the study and would lead to "more dire" predictions than the U.N.'s latest, which gave Earth only 12 more years.

              CNN has since reported "errors were made" but is still defending the study claiming its scientific errors "do not invalidate the study's methodology."

              The Washington Post is now reporting the scientists made "key errors."

              "A major study claimed the oceans were warming much faster than previously thought," the paper reported. "But researchers now say they can't necessarily make that claim."

              "Unfortunately, we made mistakes here," said Ralph Keeling, a Scripps researcher and coauthor of the study, adding the mathematical error means a "much larger margin of error in the findings."
              And your point is? Is it denial? You and OBP still in denial, CP? You are aware of the ongoing California fires, right?

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by JimL View Post
                And your point is? Is it denial? You and OBP still in denial, CP? You are aware of the ongoing California fires, right?
                Around here, we just had a big ice and snow storm.

                Neither is probative.
                Geislerminian Antinomian Kenotic Charispneumaticostal Gender Mutualist-Egalitarian.

                Beige Federalist.

                Nationalist Christian.

                "Everybody is somebody's heretic."

                Social Justice is usually the opposite of actual justice.

                Proud member of the this space left blank community.

                Would-be Grand Vizier of the Padishah Maxi-Super-Ultra-Hyper-Mega-MAGA King Trumpius Rex.

                Justice for Ashli Babbitt!

                Justice for Matthew Perna!

                Arrest Ray Epps and his Fed bosses!

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by JimL View Post
                  And your point is? Is it denial? You and OBP still in denial, CP?
                  I don't really understand what they get out of their denial. Like, even if there's only a 1% chance the scientists are right about climate change, what's lost by installing a few solar panels and planting a few trees?
                  "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                  "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                  "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                    I don't really understand what they get out of their denial. Like, even if there's only a 1% chance the scientists are right about climate change, what's lost by installing a few solar panels and planting a few trees?
                    I love how you pretend like that's all that's being asked of people. I have no problem with either, or with reasonable curbs to pollution placed on everyone. I see no reason, however, to have economy-strangling levels of restrictions here while China does whatever it pleases.
                    Enter the Church and wash away your sins. For here there is a hospital and not a court of law. Do not be ashamed to enter the Church; be ashamed when you sin, but not when you repent. – St. John Chrysostom

                    Veritas vos Liberabit<>< Learn Greek <>< Look here for an Orthodox Church in America<><Ancient Faith Radio
                    sigpic
                    I recommend you do not try too hard and ...research as little as possible. Such weighty things give me a headache. - Shunyadragon, Baha'i apologist

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                      I don't really understand what they get out of their denial. Like, even if there's only a 1% chance the scientists are right about climate change, what's lost by installing a few solar panels and planting a few trees?
                      I know, it's a tribal thing I think. If liberals are for it, then they are against it regardless of the consequences. 99% of scientists can't convince the republican brain the truth of something they don't want to believe. Just look at all the evidence of Trumps criminal, lying, sociopathic, autocratic behavior which they are completey in denial about. That's how their brains work, they can't possibly be wrong, except that they nearly always are!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                        I don't really understand what they get out of their denial.
                        Can you show even one single post I've made that indicates I'm in denial over warming? Just because JimL asserts something doesn't make it true. It actually makes it extremely suspect.
                        The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                          ...what's lost by installing a few solar panels and planting a few trees?
                          I have solar panels on my new house and out-building, and I planted 7 trees this spring. I'm good, then, eh?

                          As a matter of fact, with all the landscaping I had done, -- bushes, shrubs, crepe myrtle trees --- I'm probably green enough to cover all my Tweb colleagues, as well.

                          Happy?
                          The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Now, let's look at who it was correcting the error in the article. Was it "peer review"? Or was it a lone internet blogger who noticed a problem right off the bat?


                            When the Scientific Consensus Is Corrected by a Skeptic


                            A group of international scientists is walking back major claims they’d made in the journal Nature about the rate at which the earth’s oceans are warming. A newly published note from the study’s co-author, Ralph Keeting, makes it plain that these researchers still believe the oceans are warming at an alarming rate, but they now acknowledge that procedural mistakes “that came to our attention” created an unacceptably large margin of error in their results.

                            That “came to our attention” line conceals the most important aspect of the story. These scientists work out of Princeton University, the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, and various international institutions that make up the much lionized “scientific consensus” on climate change. And they had their landmark study debunked by an independent global-warming skeptic of no institutional standing named Nicholas Lewis.

                            Where did Lewis debunk the doomsayers? No, not in the esteemed pages of Nature but in a blog post at a website called Climate Etc., a small, dissenting dot in the vast universe of online science discussion. Lewis wrote: “The findings of the…paper were peer-reviewed and published in the world’s premier scientific journal and were given wide coverage in the English-speaking media.” He went on: “Despite this, a quick review of the first page of the paper was sufficient to raise doubts as to the accuracy of its results. Just a few hours of analysis and calculations, based only on published information, was sufficient to uncover apparently serious (but surely inadvertent) errors in the underlying calculations.”


                            Why didn't the "peer review" concept work?

                            Two words: Confirmation Bias

                            It's GOOD to have skeptics around to check your work.
                            The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by One Bad Pig View Post
                              I love how you pretend like that's all that's being asked of people. I have no problem with either, or with reasonable curbs to pollution placed on everyone.
                              Great! Sounds like you're fully on board with the liberal's goal of preventing climate change.

                              I see no reason, however, to have economy-strangling levels of restrictions here while China does whatever it pleases.
                              Nobody's asking for that, so that's irrelevant.
                              "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                              "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                              "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                              Comment

                              Related Threads

                              Collapse

                              Topics Statistics Last Post
                              Started by Hypatia_Alexandria, Yesterday, 12:15 PM
                              0 responses
                              12 views
                              0 likes
                              Last Post Hypatia_Alexandria  
                              Started by Sparko, 03-07-2024, 08:52 AM
                              16 responses
                              74 views
                              0 likes
                              Last Post shunyadragon  
                              Started by rogue06, 02-28-2024, 11:06 AM
                              6 responses
                              45 views
                              0 likes
                              Last Post shunyadragon  
                              Started by Catholicity, 11-28-2023, 11:14 AM
                              57 responses
                              421 views
                              1 like
                              Last Post Cow Poke  
                              Started by shunyadragon, 11-17-2023, 10:35 PM
                              92 responses
                              546 views
                              0 likes
                              Last Post Diogenes  
                              Working...
                              X